NFL Week Three Betting Preview
(Credit: Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Condolences to those of us that backed the Ravens, Browns, and/or Raiders this past weekend. One minute you’re planning your next bet with your winnings and the next you’re trying to figure out who you wronged recently to experience such pain and anguish. It’s why sports betting isn’t for everyone.
Here are the teams that have gotten off to a hot start versus those that can’t cover to start the season.
2-0 Against the Spread: Bills, Buccaneers, Lions, Texans, Chargers, Falcons, Dolphins, and Giants
0-2 Against the Spread: Titans, Bengals, Saints, Broncos, Raiders, Rams, Colts, and Panthers
With Week 2 coming and going, these are the talking points we’re left with. The Chiefs ripped apart Justin Herbert’s ribs. The Jaguars got their first shoutout win since 2018 versus none other than the Colts. Can we write off Geno Smith again?
The Bucs brawled their way to victory. The Bengals have a worse record than the Browns, Texans, Seahawks, Jaguars, Giants, Jets, Lions, Bears, and Commanders. Browns is the Browns. Miami melted Baltimore. Daniel Jones is in the same conversation as Tom Brady, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes staying undefeated to begin the 2022 season.
Dan Campbell commanded a W. Bill Belichick refuses to start 0-2. The Falcons almost gave the Rams their blown lead disease. Apparently, Texans can’t ride Broncos. Las Vegas should’ve left the table while they were up. Aaron Rodgers played with his pet Bears. The Eagles put a hurting on the Vikings. Buffalo deserves a Super Bowl parade.
Now let’s take a look at the best bets in Week Three.
*Last week’s record: 5-3
Thursday Night Football – Steelers vs. Browns – 8:15PM ET
Brownie the Elf’s presence on the field didn’t mean a thing to former rival Joe Flacco. Once a Raven and now a Jet, Flacco can still fly over the dawg pound and coordinate an aerial assault on the hearts of Clevelanders, extending his record to 9-2 at FirstEnergy Stadium.
Pittsburgh on the other hand needs to teach its defense how to play on offense since they’ve contributed one fewer TD than new QB Mitch Trubisky. At 1-1 apiece, both division rivals are looking to jump out in front of the other. Minus a 14-point win by Cleveland in 2019, the average margin of victory is 2.5 points with one tie over the past five seasons between these two at FirstEnergy. Expect a tight contest in this one.
Pittsburgh Pick ‘Em
- Steelers are 9-5-1 on the road at CLE under Mike Tomlin
- Najee Harris rushed for a TD in each game last season vs. CLE, going for 91 and 188-rushing yards
- Browns are 5-10 against the spread over the past two seasons as a home favorite
- Nick Chubb has only rushed for 1 TD in seven career regular season games vs. PIT, going over 100-rushing yards just once
Cleveland Can Win
- Cleveland is 4-0 in their last four Thursday Night Football games since 2018 (all at home)
- Steelers are 0-3 at CLE in games not started by Ben Roethlisberger under Mike Tomlin
Pick: Steelers (+4.5)
Sunday – Chiefs vs. Colts – 1PM ET
Can Indy really be this bad? Tying with Houston to start the season was a bad look, especially after bringing in veteran QB Matt Ryan, who’s supposed to be the answer to their problems.
And while losing to Jacksonville, a franchise that’s won a combined four games over the past two seasons, stings it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise since Indy hasn’t won a game there since 2014. The Colts started 0-3 last season and then rattled off nine wins in their next 12 games, so there’s still some hope they can turn things around.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is rolling once again after defeating division rival Los Angeles. Conventional wisdom says Indy has no chance, but the NFL doesn’t make sense so we can’t think conventionally here. Of course, Kansas City can easily win by 21+ points, but with their backs against the wall I believe Taylor and gang can cover the spread.
Kansas City Keepers
- Chiefs are 25-7 on the road with Patrick Mahomes as their starting QB
- Chiefs have started 3-0 in three of their four seasons under Mahomes
- Colts are 2-6 in their last eight home openers
Indy Indeed
- Jonathan Taylor rushed for a TD in seven of nine home games last season
- Three of their five home losses last season were by three points (two were by seven+ points)
- Mahomes is only 6-5 on the road against non-divisional AFC opponents
Pick: Colts (+6.5)
Bills vs. Dolphins – 1PM ET
Talk about offense. If you want points, Buffalo and Miami’s going to give them to ya. Buffalo has lit up the scoreboard with the most points (72) through the first two weeks while Miami is tied for third most (62). Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have both thrown for 7 TDs each.
The top three receiving yard leaders this season will also be taking the field as Tyreek Hill (284 yards), Stefon Diggs (270 yards), and Jaylen Waddle (240 yards) look to continue snagging footballs from their QBs. Hopefully we’re about to witness the highest scoring game in NFL history.
Allen’s Answers
- Josh Allen is 3-1 at MIA, winning three-straight
- Bills are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings overall vs. MIA, sweeping the season series in four of the last five years
- Bills have won seven-straight games vs. MIA, winning by an average of 19-points per game
- Bills have started 3-0 twice in four seasons under Allen
- Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis have both caught a TD in three of four games as Bills vs. MIA
- Tua Tagovailoa is 0-2 vs. BUF (both road games)
Tua by TKO
- Tua Tagovailoa is a career 10-2 at home
- Dolphins are 7-3 against the spread over the past two seasons as a home underdog
- Dolphins last started 3-0 in 2018
Pick: Bills (-5.5)
Lions vs. Vikings – 1PM ET
The plane ride home couldn’t have come quicker for Kirk Cousins and Minnesota after that atrocious loss on Monday night. All the cheers from Week 1 have vanished and now fans are left asking is Cousins ever going to be THE guy.
Detroit fans must be salivating at their offense, scoring one point less than the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills through Week 2. Both contests last season ended with each team escaping with a two-point home win. While Detroit certainly looked like the better team last week, I’m backing Minnesota in this one.
Minnesota’s Magic
- Vikings are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings vs. DET, sweeping the season series in three of the last five years
- Vikings have won four-straight home games vs. DET
Detroit Deals
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught a TD in each game this season
- D’Andre Swift has scored a TD in each game this season
- T.J. Hockenson has caught a TD in two of his last four games vs. MIN
Pick: Vikings (-6)
Ravens vs. Patriots – 1PM ET
28 points in the fourth quarter. That’s how much Baltimore’s defense allowed in the last 15 minutes of play after leading Miami by 21 points for most of the game. Lamar Jackson played brilliantly, but it was Baltimore’s secondary that allowed a cheetah and penguin to continuously speed/waddle past them into the endzone for six.
New England was able to get back on track and win a tough road game in Pittsburgh against their vaunted defense. Harbaugh’s had great success at New England in the playoffs, but when it comes to the regular season Bill Belichick and Co. know how to get it done.
Kneel Before New England
- Bill Belichick is 17-5 in home openers with the Patriots
- Patriots are 3-2 against the spread over the past two seasons as a home underdog
- Ravens are 2-6 under John Harbaugh at NE (including playoffs), losing three-straight
- Ravens last road win in NE came back in the 2012 AFC Championship game
Bank on Baltimore
- Ravens are 18-7 on the road with Lamar Jackson as their starting QB
- Ravens are 5-6-1 against the spread over the past two seasons as an away favorite
Pick: Patriots (+3)
Jaguars vs. Chargers – 4:05PM
Jaguars vs. Chargers @ 4:05PM ET
I know we’re all pulling for Detroit to make the playoffs this season, but it’d be fun to see Jacksonville win some games. Trevor Lawrence looks better in his sophomore year and their defense just shutout Jonathan Taylor and Indy.
Los Angeles’s stud QB Justin Herbert exited Arrowhead Stadium with a fractured rib cartilage that noticeably affected him during the last couple of drives last Thursday. If Jacksonville can put some hits on Herbert and get him out of the game early, they may have an opportunity to steal a win on the road.
Land of Los Angeles
- Trevor Lawrence is 0-9 on the road in his young NFL career, with 4 of those games being lost by 6 points or less
- Jaguars are 2-6 against the spread as an away underdog with Lawrence
Jacksonville Jingles Pockets
- Chargers are only 10-8 at home with Herbert as their starting QB
- Chargers are 7-7 against the spread over the past two seasons as a home favorite
Pick: Jaguars (+7)
Rams vs. Cardinals – 4:25PM ET
Yes, Arizona made one hell of a comeback last week and made us all forget how bad they looked in the first half. While that was cute and all they’ve been outscored 43-7 in the first half so far this season. Los Angeles has been just a putrid in the second half being outscored 45-10 through their first two games.
So maybe it’ll be a battle of the halves with Los Angeles jumping out to an early lead only to let Arizona mount another come from behind win. Recent history tells us that Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are escaping with a win and covering the spread.
Conner Can Run
- James Conner rushed for five TDs in three games last season vs. LAR (including playoffs), scoring two TDs in both regular season contests
Los Angeles Layups
- Rams have won seven in a row at AZ
- Rams are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings overall (including playoffs) vs. AZ, sweeping the season series in four of the last five seasons
- Minus a 27-point demolition in 2019, the Rams have won by an average of 8.5 points at AZ against Kyler Murray
Pick: Rams (-3.5)
Packers vs. Buccaneers – 4:25PM ET
Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady. Two legends going at it once again. Could father time finally be catching up to these future HOFers? Probably not, but they’ve both only thrown 2 TDs over the first two weeks with their offenses averaging under 20 points per game.
Tampa Bay snapped a seven-game losing streak against New Orleans while Green Bay extended its winning streak to seven games versus Chicago. With a lack of receivers on both sides of the field we could be in for a low scoring, run heavy, defensive battle.
Green Bay Gangsters
- Packers are 5-1 against the spread over the past two seasons as an away underdog, going 3-0 last season
- Aaron Jones scored either a rushing or receiving TD in four of seven road games last season
Brawling Buc Bets
- Tom Brady is a career 17-2 in home openers (both losses were with NE)
- Brady is 4-1 against Aaron Rodgers (including playoffs)
- Bucs are 12-3 at home with Brady as their starting QB, winning nine in a row and going undefeated last season (not including playoffs)
- Bucs are 10-6 against the spread over the past two seasons as a home favorite
- Aaron Rodgers is 1-3 in his career at TB (last win came in 2014)
- Rodgers is 5-11 on the road against NFC South opponents (including playoffs)
Pick: Buccaneers (-2)
49ers vs. Broncos – 8:20PM ET
There’s no quarterback drama in San Francisco anymore after starter Trey Lance went down for the season with a fractured right ankle. Jimmy G is back, and San Francisco is still on track to make a run for Super Bowl LVII.
He’ll get a chance to square off against a former NFC West foe Russell Wilson, who’s new team in Denver doesn’t seem like much of a threat in the AFC West. They needed a 10-point fourth quarter to seal an unconvincing win against Houston to begin the season at 1-1. There’s a lot of talk around Aaron Rodgers owning Chicago, but Wilson has a full season’s worth of wins against San Francisco. Vegas is predicting a close game and I’m siding with that theory.
Wilson Carries a W
- Russell Wilson is a career 17-4 vs. SF (including playoffs), winning four-straight
- Wilson is 4-1 vs. Garoppolo
- Broncos won by an average of 19 points in their four home wins last season
San Fran’s Safe Bets
- 49ers are 18-6 on the road in the regular season with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting QB
- Deebo Samuel had a rushing or receiving TD in five of eight regular season road games last season
- Minus a 20-point win at JAC, 49ers’ road wins and losses were decided by an average of six points per game last season
- Broncos are 4-7 at home against non-AFC West opponents over the past two seasons
Pick: 49ers (-1.5)
Monday Night Football – Cowboys vs. Giants – 8:15PM ET
In one of the worst/most interesting divisions in the NFL, we have New York with an unpredictable 2-0 start and Dallas defeating one of last season’s Super Bowl attendees without their starting QB.
This hasn’t been much of a rivalry in recent years with New York remaining a basement dweller in the NFC East, but this game should be a wild one with plenty of touchdowns, turnovers, and lead changes.
Go with the G-Men
- Daniel Jones is 5-2 at home against his NFC East rivals
- Giants last win vs. DAL came in 2020 with Dak Prescott out due to injury
- Giants last started 3-0 in 2009
Don’t Doubt Dallas
- Cowboys are 7-3 in their last 10 games at NYG
- Cowboys are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings overall vs. NYG, sweeping the season series in four of the last five years
- Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 Monday Night Football games (last win came in 2018)
- Ezekiel Elliot has rushed for a TD in five-straight games vs. NYG
Pick: Giants (-2)
