Fantasy Football Week 11: Start ’em, Sit ’em
If you were to tell me at the beginning of the season that, post week 10, the Bills would be out of the playoff picture and that the Colts (currently led by Gardner Minshew) mathematically have a greater chance of making the playoffs, I would’ve laughed in your face. Maybe throw a pencil at you. But that’s exactly what’s happening.
Week 10 threw a few more injuries in our faces, most notably Deshaun Watson ending his season by deciding to have surgery done on a fractured bone in his throwing shoulder. Other injuries included Alexander Mattison (concussion) and Derek Carr (also concussion).
Fortunately, week 11 means critical players are returning to action from Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and LA, but there are still byes this week that require attention in starting lineups.
Ian’s Record: 49-32
Start ‘em
C.J. Stroud (QB, Texans) vs. Cardinals
Stroud is no longer in conversations for offensive rookie of the year (spoiler, he’s gonna win). Stroud should be in MVP conversations.
During hard-fought wins against Tampa Bay in week 9 and Cincinnati in week 10, Stroud put up 826 passing yards and six touchdowns. His 470 yards in week 9 was the most by a rookie in NFL history, and in nine games he’s already slated himself inside the top 10 of career passing yards in the Texans’ franchise history.
He should have no problem continuing Houston’s offensive onslaughts against Arizona, who’s currently surrendering the fourth most fantasy points to opposing QBs. There’s also the potential for a shootout with Kyler Murray back and already rushing for touchdowns, so that should be fun.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, Commanders) vs. Giants
He’s been pretty up-and-down this season, but Robinson’s performance last week is too much to ignore as the game-script looks even more in his favor.
Robinson didn’t get much going on the ground, but he caught all six of his targets for 119 yards against a very good Seahawks pass defense, including a 51-yard scamper to the endzone.
The Giants’ rush AND pass defense has been bottom of the totem pole in the past eight weeks, ranking 28th in fantasy points to RBs and dead last in fantasy points to WRs. Cha-ching.
Deebo Samuel (WR, 49ers) vs. Buccaneers
In his first game back, Samuel and the 49ers reminded the league how dangerous they are when healthy. Going into Jacksonville as the Jags are riding a five-game win streak and keeping them out of the endzone, this was a statement win San Francisco desperately needed as the top of the NFC remains a little crowded.
Alongside Brandon Aiyuk, expect Samuel to stay busy in this positive game script against the Bucs, as on the season Tampa is surrendering the sixth most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Sam LaPorta (TE, Lions) vs. Bears
This should be a no-brainer. LaPorta has been putting up top-five fantasy numbers among tight ends ever since week 1, and there’s no way that changes in my final positive game script this week.
The Bears have fallen to dead last in the league in terms of fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and Detroit’s offense is still buzzing after dropping 41 on the Chargers last week. Cha-ching.
Sit ’em
Josh Allen (QB, Bills) vs. Jets
I don’t usually give flaming hot takes in these articles for my credibility’s sake, but the Bills are broken.
Four turnovers and dumb penalties on Monday cost them a much-needed win against the Broncos, while also costing Ken Dorsey his job as their offensive coordinator.
Serious fixes need to come to Allen’s play style if the Bills are to remain in playoff contention at all, but I don’t see it this week with a new OC taking on the Jets’ defense. They’ve surrendered the fourth least fantasy points to opposing QBs in the past five weeks, and THE least in the past four.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, Chiefs) vs. Eagles
After finding his footing for a bit, Pacheco has taken a tumble in the couple contests before the bye. What worries me about this is both those games were against pretty bad run defenses, and now Kansas City welcomes the top dog in that category for a Super Bowl rematch.
As you can see by this graphic, this game is going to be won through the air. At least on the Chiefs’ side. That said, the script is leaning more in Jerick McKinnon’s court as a pass-catching back.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Titans) at Jaguars
Ever since Will Levis’ debut where it seemed like he could throw to no one but him, Hopkins has disappeared. On paper this is still the case, he had eleven targets in week 9 and eight in week 10, but both those combined for only seven catches and 87 yards.
Levis has obviously been brought back down to Earth as well, so I don’t trust another switch flip against a Jacksonville pass defense that has improved since the start of the season. Pass.
Evan Engram (TE, Jaguars) vs. Titans
Here’s a crazy stat. Through nine games, Tennessee has allowed 54.2 fantasy points to opposing TEs. Total. Not a single touchdown either.
He’s been pretty reliable all season, but this matchup is way too tough for Engram as the Titans rock against TEs but stink against WRs. If you’ve got no one else, keep him in your lineup, but definitely don’t expect him to find his first touchdown.
BYES: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, ATLANTA FALCONS, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
