Game recap: Turnovers cost Patriots chance of upset win over Ravens

Oddsmakers and analysts predicted that the Baltimore Ravens would come into New England and beat the Patriots in their home opener. ESPN gave Baltimore a 56% chance to win. FanDuel set their line at Baltimore minus 2.5. Today, the pundits were right. 

Baltimore (2-1) brought the heat and beat New England (1-2) by a score of 37 to 26. 

Before the game began, key injuries were announced on both sides. For New England, starting safety Kyle Dugger and top-target wide receiver Jakobi Meyers were both ruled out for the game. For Baltimore, pro bowl tackle Ronnie Stanley could not play. All three absences were felt throughout the game. 

First Quarter: The Rivalry Returns

In the beginning, the defenses controlled the flow of the game. The Patriots forced a three and out. Then, the Ravens turned around and stopped the Patriots in four plays.

Notably, during this stretch, New England’s back-up punt returner Miles Bryant once again fumbled the ball. Just like last week in Pittsburgh, he was not punished for his mistake as he dived to the ground and recovered the ball. If Bryant continues to struggle like this, it could easily result in points for the other team. 

A 31-yard pass from quarterback Mac Jones to wide receiver Devante Parker was the only first down in the opening minutes. The first two games were underwhelming for Parker. In two games, he had one total reception for nine total yards. Parker’s lack of success was not due to being off the field. He played over 50 snaps in both games. 

Instead, Parker’s lack of production was due to him being covered like a star pass catching option. Miami’s Xavien Howard shadowed Parker in Week One and Pittsburgh’s Minkah Fitzpatrick did the same in Week Two. 

Today, Parker broke out on the scene because the Ravens do not have a pro bowl level talent in their secondary. He earned 156 yards of offense on five catches. 

On Baltimore’s next possession, quarterback Lamar Jackson began to get a rhythm going on offense. On a long eleven play drive, Jackson was able to scramble for a first down and threw four completions to tight end Mark Andrews. Andrews also caught the opening touchdown. 

Second Quarter: Patriots offense finally looks explosive

Beginning in the second quarter, the Patriots scored on four out of five possessions. Head coach Bill Belichick and technically-not offensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s play-calling was more aggressive and more statistically sound. 

Even though the Patriots offense does not usually rely on play-action, Patricia called quite a few play-action plays because they knew that strategy had been effective against the Ravens in Week Two. 

When the Patriots had a fourth down chance at Baltimore’s 33 yard line, they intelligently went for it rather than taking a field goal or punting. The attempt failed, but there was an organizational confidence in the offense today that has not been shown earlier this season. 

Right now, punter Jake Bailey has the second shortest average distance of his punts in the NFL. Bailey is an all-pro who punts as well as any other punter in the league. Bailey’s average is so short because the Patriots choose to punt with a lot closer to the opposing end zones than most other teams. This is indicative of Belichick and Patricia not feeling confident in their offense. 

Improved play from New England’s defense also helped their offense achieve success. Specifically, defensive end Deatrich Wise took advantage of tackle Ronnie Stanley’s absence. Rookie tackle Daniel Faalele was not able to cover Wise. In the first half alone, Wise had three sacks and another tackle for loss. 

Wise, who historically has played less than half of New England’s defensive snaps, now plays on almost every one of their defensive plays. He is set to cruise past all of his season total records this year. Crucially, he also applied pressure to Jackson on the first target to wide receiver Rashod Bateman. 

Jackson threw the ball low and into the hands of cornerback Jonathan Jones. The Patriots capitalized on their opportunity with a short field. The capped a touchdown drive with Mac Jones’s first ever rushing score. 

The Ravens offense had one successful drive in this period where they scored a touchdown. The score going into half had Baltimore up by one: 14 to 13. 

Third Quarter: Highs and Lows

New England opened the second half with a thorough seventy-five yard touchdown drive. Jones continued targeting deep threats like Parker. Wide receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor also ran routes downfield.

In contrast, injured wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is Patriots’ primary target for short gains. Without Meyers, Mac Jones was not aiming to throw under ten yards nearly as much. Thus, the Patriots were forced to try to make more aggressive plays today. 

Jones has previously described Meyers as “a second quarterback.” Jones deeply trusts Meyers’s catching ability and his reads of opposing defense. However, Jones’s belief in Meyers might prohibit him from taking a deep shot when the situation calls for it. 

In this early third quarter drive, running back Rhomondre Stevenson scored the touchdown and the Patriots took their only lead of the game: 20 to 14. 

The Ravens immediately got the lead back with their own touchdown drive. Although he did not have a reception on this specific possession, tight end Mark Andrews was an absolutely vital part of Baltimore’s offense. He had eight catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns. 

His success partially came from the absence of safety Kyle Dugger. At 6 feet 2 inches, Dugger is the only defensive back on the Patriots who has the size and stature to cover the behemoth known as Andrews. Standing at 6 feet 5 inches, Andrews caught multiple passes over the heads of safeties Adrian Phillips and Devin McCourty. 

After New England was stopped again, Baltimore’s punt returner Devin Duvernay had a long run into New England. It took two more plays for Baltimore to score again. Another field goal for the Ravens quickly followed, making the tally 31 to 20 at the end of the third quarter. 

Fourth Quarter: Turnovers seal New England’s Fate

The Patriots offense was active in the fourth quarter, but a few bad mistakes cost them any opportunity to win. They started off with a nine play touchdown drive to cut Baltimore’s lead to five. The drive was highlighted by a pair of excellent scrambles from Mac Jones. 

What appeared to be a successful two point conversion was called back when a slow motion replay showed a Raven defender grazing Stevenson’s leg, making him down by contact outside of the endzone. 

Jonathan Jones forced a fumble out of the arms of Bateman. It was his second turnover of the day. Safety Jabrill Peppers recovered the fumble. 

The Patriots nearly took the lead. They got within ten yards of the goaline. However, on a critical third down and goal, Mac Jones was intercepted by cornerback Marlon Humphrey in the endzone.

The Patriots defense was unaffected by this disappointing result. They came up big and stopped the Ravens offense within five plays. 

With five minutes left on the clock, Jones and the Patriots offense had one more chance for a game winning drive. Jones and the Patriots picked up where they left off. The Patriots targeted deep threats and made some big catches. 

Unfortunately, after one of these big catches was when wide receiver Nelson Agholor gave the end game away. Rookie Kyle Hamilton punched the ball free on Agholor’s long run down the field. 

A growing hope for New England withered into dust in a single second. Baltimore turned this recovered fumble into six points, effectively ending the game. 

On a garbage time heave, Mac Jones threw his third and final interception. A Baltimore defender rolled over his ankle and Jones limped off the field. Much like the average Patriots fan, he was clearly in pain. 

Looking ahead

The Patriots (1-2) now travel to the vaunted Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers. This is New England’s third road game in four weeks. Between Week Five and Week 11, New England’s schedule relents a little with four home games, a bye, and a chance to play the Jets. 

Green Bay’s quarterback Aaron Rodgers won the MVP award in 2020 and 2021, but his offensive weapons are not as great as they have been in the past. 

Because of this, Green Bay’s offense has been variable from week to week. Against strong defenses like the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they were held to seven and fourteen points, respectively. However, against the Chicago Bears defense, the Packers put up 27 points without a sweat. 

Playing the Packers will be a good gauge to see how the Patriots’ defense stacks up in comparison to other defenses around the league. 

It remains to be seen whether or not Jones will play on Sunday. He is rumored to have a high ankle sprain. The seriousness of his leg injury is yet to be determined.

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