Rookies You Should Draft in Fantasy This Year: RB Edition
If you read my last article, we went over how difficult it is to anticipate the productivity of first-year players who haven’t seen the field on an NFL level yet. If you didn’t read my last article, now you know what we’re up to here.
Obviously it’s much harder to predict how skill positions minus quarterbacks will do due to the larger impact swirling playbooks and schematics affect running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. However, these running backs were fortunately drafted into prime positions to succeed right out of the gate, and could be steals of your fantasy drafts come the fall.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
No surprises here. Robinson shined at the NFL combine at 5 ’11”, 215 pounds, and a 4.46 40-yard-dash time. In his final year at Texas, he summed up 1,580 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He also comes as a dual threat (albeit in a run-first offense) after tacking on 314 receiving yards at 16.5 yards-per-reception.
With a running back room that currently houses Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson, Robinson will easily step into the RB1 spot in Atlanta. With the exception of Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey, Robinson should be one of the first running backs taken in your fantasy draft this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Bijan Robinson may be the only rookie RB this year with elite fantasy upside, but that definitely doesn’t take away from the insurance you could gain through Gibbs or anyone else on this list. Gibbs recorded a 4.36 40 time and with a 33.5” vertical, is very dynamic.
The departures of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will no doubt help with Gibbs’ fantasy upside as well, with only David Montgomery to compete for touches with in Detroit. My advice with Gibbs is if you decide to get a wide receiver in the first round and then names like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb leave the board, snatch him with that second or third round pick.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
This was definitely an interesting draft pick by Seattle, seeing that Kenneth Walker III was drafted only a year ago and seemed to take the reins during his rookie year. Looking at his college career, Charbonnet is definitely a force to be reckoned with that owns the truck-stick capabilities similar to Marshawn Lynch.
That’s a five-minute video, but the first couple highlights prove my point.
In his two years at UCLA, Charbonnet averaged an impressive 6.31 yards per carry and 4.15 yards after contact. While Walker provides him stiff competition, look to steal Charbonnet around rounds 6-8 to provide your flex spot some goal-line TDs, barring injuries to either him or Walker.
Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins
Even though Miami re-signed both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. on one year deals, that doesn’t at all stop Achane from potentially being an immediate impact in the Dolphins’ run game. His speed (4.32 40 time) adds to Mike McDaniel’s track team he’s accumulated, and his scheme is a good fit for Achane’s smaller posture.
Of course, a lot of Achane’s upside is dependent on whether or not the Dolphins decide to pull the trigger on Dalvin Cook. If this doesn’t happen, however, I’ll be looking for him in the 7th or 8th round to take over Miami’s run game by week 6.
