2022 NFL Betting Preview: Chiefs to the Super Bowl, Steelers to win AFC North?
With the start of the 2022-23 NFL season right around the corner, it’s time to get your last-minute futures bets in before the season begins. Whether that be Super Bowl winner, MVP or most rushing yards. You don’t want to regret passing up on some of the best value you’re going to get all year.
To help with these decisions, we’re going to dive into some of the best bets that are still available and some that you should avoid even with your friend’s money.
*The odds below are provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Super Bowl LVII Winner
There’s only been six occasions when the preseason favorite has gone on to win the Super Bowl. ’18 Patriots, ’16 Patriots, ’06 Colts, ’93 Cowboys, ’89 & ’88 49ers. This means that the prohibited favorite Bills are up against it this season.
Let’s take a look at the top 10 teams with the highest preseason odds of winning the Super Bowl over the past two seasons and see how it all shook out at the end of the year.
2020
- Four of 10 missed out on the playoffs (#3 49ers, #7 Patriots, # 8 Eagles, and #6 Cowboys)
- Two marched to their respective conference championship game (#1 Chiefs and #5 Buccaneers)
- One went on to win Super Bowl 55
2021
- Three of 10 missed out on the playoffs (#8 Browns, #9 Seahawks, and #5 Ravens)
- Three reached their respective conference championship game (#6 49ers, #1 Chiefs, and #7 Rams)
- One went on to win Super Bowl 56
So, it’s safe to assume that of the top 10 teams mentioned below, at least three of them are going to be eliminated from playoff contention, two+ are going to be one game closer to the Super Bowl, and one of them is going to be celebrating with the Lombardi trophy at years end.
Now let’s breakdown the top 10 teams with the highest odds to win Super Bowl 57.
Losing Tickets
#10 Dallas Cowboys (+2000): Not sure why they have the same odds as the Bengals when they haven’t even been to an NFC Championship game since the 1995-96 season and were ousted in a home Wild Card game last season. Their odds have somehow increased from +3000 last year, which is even more of a reason to steer clear of them.
#9 Baltimore Ravens (+1800): Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs. He’s never made it past the Divisional Round. He’d have to lead the Ravens past Patrick Mahomes and/or Josh Allen just to reach the Super Bowl.
#8 Denver Broncos (+1600): GM John Elway is hoping Russell Wilson can accomplish what Peyton Manning did in his time with Denver. But they might not even make the playoffs since they play in one of this season’s toughest divisions. Six of their games come against the Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs. Not to mention they have to play the 49ers, Colts, Titans, Ravens, Cardinals, and Rams as well.
#4 Green Bay Packers (+1200): Same can be said here for Green Bay as for Dallas. The Packers shouldn’t have the same odds as the Rams when they have no offensive weapons for Aaron Rodgers to utilize yet again and they continue to lose home playoff games.
Odds Are Against Them
#5 Los Angeles Rams (+1200): Last team to go back-to-back was the New England Patriots in 2004-05. If Tom Brady hasn’t been able to repeat since then, what makes us think any other QB/team can?
#1 Buffalo Bills (+600): The Bills could easily win the Super Bowl this season. They could’ve been last season’s as well if they would’ve just stopped Patrick Mahomes with :13 seconds left in the AFC Divisional Round game. But as mentioned earlier, not many preseason favorites wind up winning it all in the end.
Flip Of A Coin
#7 San Francisco 49ers (+1600):An NFC West team has represented the NFC in six of the last 10 Super Bowls (three in the last four). The 49ers have been to two Super Bowls and four NFC Championship games during that span. This current team came alive late in the year last season and just missed out on heading to another Super Bowl.
They have explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball with guys like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa. The biggest question mark is their first year starting QB Trey Lance. He’ll be the deciding factor in whether they win their 6th Super Bowl title or not.
#6 Los Angeles Chargers (+1400): The Chargers had their playoff hopes dashed by the black and silver Raiders in last year’s regular season finale. But based on recent trends, that’s a good sign for their chances this time around. In five of the last six Super Bowls, one of the participating teams hadn’t made the playoffs the year prior.
Third year QB Justin Herbert is no joke. And the Chargers bulked up their defense in the offseason as well. If they can get out of their division and reach the playoffs, they have one of the best chances at making a deep run to the Super Bowl.
#2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750): Boy is it hard to bet against Tom Brady. The man has been in six of the last 11 Super Bowls, winning four of them. As long as he’s still playing in the NFL you have to take his team seriously. The Bucs play in one of the softest divisions in the NFL, so if Brady stays healthy, they’re guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
Then the fun begins. He’s 4-2 in the Wild Card, 14-3 in the Divisional Round, 10-4 in the AFC/NFC Championship, and 7-3 in the Super Bowl. Basically, once he’s in the playoffs it’s hard to knock him out.
Best Bang For Your Buck
#3 Kansas City Chiefs (+1100): Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs started out 3-4 last season and everyone counted them out. Then they went out and won nine of their last 10 games and came within one bad half from making their third straight trip to the Super Bowl. Yes, their division got stronger this offseason.
Denver brought in Russell Wilson, Los Angeles got Khalil Mack, Las Vegas traded for Davante Adams, and Kansas City discarded Tyreek Hill, but the division still rolls through Arrowhead Stadium. They’ve won the NFC West six years in a row, and in Mahomes’ four years as starting QB, Kansas City has reached the AFC Championship game every season, twice going to the Super Bowl. It’s time Mahomes gets his second ring.
Divisional Winner Pick
AFC North Division Winner: Steelers +1000
Yes, Cincinnati just played in Super Bowl 56 and everyone thinks that Joe Burrow and Co. are going to run the division for the next decade. But let’s take a look and see what makes the Steelers a great value pick.
- The Steelers have won the most AFC North division titles (4) over the past 10 seasons, continuing to wave their terrible towels in success while the division waves white flags in defeat
- Since 2013, Pittsburgh hasn’t finished lower than second in their division
- Since the AFC North was realigned in 2002, the Bengals have never repeated as division champs
- Since 2002, the Steelers have won the AFC North three out of the four times after the Bengals previously won
- Last won the AFC North in 2020
Regular Season Wins
Steelers: Over 7.5 (-105)
- Head coach Mike Tomlin has won eight+ games in each of the 15 seasons that he’s been with Pittsburgh
Patriots: Over 8.5 (-130)
- Head coach Bill Belichick has won less than nine games only twice in his 22 years with New England (2000 and 2020)
- 2000 – year before Brady took over as starting QB
- 2020 – first year after Brady left for Tampa Bay
“Browns Is The Browns”
Worst Regular Season Record: Cleveland Browns +5000
Why the hell not, they’re the Cleveland Browns. They’re going to be missing their starting QB, Deshaun Watson, for the first 11 games due to suspension. He’s not eligible to return until Week 13 against his former team the Houston Texans, which could very well determine this season’s last place team. Their current backup QB, Jacoby Brissett, has a career record of 14-23 as a starter.
During his first season as a starter for the Colts in 2017, he played 15 games going 4-11. He also started 14 games for them in 2019, finishing with a more respectable 7-7 record. Add to the fact that their schedule isn’t too pretty either and this has the potential to be another long season in Cleveland. They have a rough stretch between Weeks 5-12 where they play the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, and Buccaneers.
- The Browns had three straight last place finishes between 2015 – 2017
- They were tied with the Titans for worst record in 2015
- The worst regular season record has come from the AFC in eight of the last 10 seasons
Player Props
Total Regular Season TD Passes: Matt Ryan Over 24.5 (-115)
- Matty Ice has thrown for over 24 TDs in nine of his 14 seasons which equates to a 64% chance of it happening again this year
- Frank Reich has had a different starting QB in each of his four seasons as head coach of the Colts, and two of them have thrown for more than 24 TDs (Andrew Luck & Carson Wentz)
Think Twice Before Locking These In
Think Twice Before Locking These In
Playoff Bound
Dallas Cowboys To Make the Playoffs: Yes -280
As mentioned earlier, at least three of the top 10 teams with the best preseason odds of winning the Super Bowl misses out on the playoffs entirely, and Dallas seems to be one of them based on their recent trends.
- The Cowboys haven’t been to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2006-07. They missed out in ‘10, ‘15, ‘17 & ‘19 after making a trip the year prior
- They haven’t repeated as division champs since “The Triplets” era between 1992-96
- The NFC East hasn’t sent two teams to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2008-09 (Dallas & Philly were both in last season). Granted one more team can make the playoffs now vs. then
- In their last eight trips to the playoffs since 2003, they’ve only entered twice as a non-division winner, last time being ‘06
Denver Broncos To Make the Playoffs: Yes -150
With only seven teams making the playoffs per conference, here are the locks in the AFC: Buffalo, Kansas City, and Indianapolis. Then we have Pittsburgh (predicted AFC North winner), Cincinnati, and Los Angeles.
That’s six teams right there and I still haven’t mentioned New England, Baltimore, Las Vegas, Tennessee, and Miami. Not sure how Denver sneaks its way into the playoffs this season with so many talented teams surrounding them. This could be the first time in Russell Wilson’s career that he misses out on the playoffs two seasons in a row.
- They have a 2-10 record in the past two seasons vs. their division rivals, which is something that could loom large as a tiebreaker if the trend continues
Player Props
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards: Jonathan Taylor +400
- In the history of the NFL, there’s never been an instance where two RBs led the league in rushing yards in back-to-back seasons consecutively (Derrick Henry repeated between 2019-20)
Most Regular Season Passing Yards: Tom Brady +700
- Brady led the league in passing yards three times in his career prior to last season when he accomplished the feat again, but he’s never repeated
- Last QB to repeat was Drew Brees between 2014-16
That’s it! Those are the picks for the season. Follow the trends, find the best value, and gamble responsibly.
