No Man’s Land: Tampa Bay in 2023

Tampa Bay was blessed with the TB12 experience for just three seasons. But man was the time was special. It was headlined by a dominant Super Bowl victory against the next GOAT in Patrick Mahomes, and two seasons of being one of the top five teams in the NFL.

However, after a disappointing season in 2022 and Brady’s retirement the tip of the iceberg, the Buccaneers don’t seem to be the contender they once were. While a team’s window to win Super Bowls only stays open for so long, many franchises fail to realize when one has closed, especially after losing a franchise quarterback. This is mainly because these rosters still typically consist of the same talent that gave them success over that period of time, which makes it harder to reconcile a rebuild.

However, it is this timidness towards a rebuild that leads to the pitfall most teams fall into after a big run. This pitfall is known as No Man’s Land, which is a situation a team finds itself in if they’re not good enough to be a serious contender, but also not bad enough to rationalize starting over. While these teams have talent, they’re no longer good enough to compete for anything special.

Championship window was a success, but now it’s over

Unfortunately, most front offices don’t realize their team is in No Man’s Land in time, and typically compound this problem by continuing to waste future resources on a roster that just isn’t fundamentally good enough to compete. Based on Tampa Bay’s decision-making this offseason, it seems like they’re trending towards doing just this.

Teams who typically end up in No Man’s Land have three things in common: a good but aging roster, limited future capital, and most importantly, no real answer at quarterback. Take the New Orleans Saints for example. When Drew Brees retired just two seasons ago, they went from running the NFC South to missing the playoffs ever since.

While they still had pretty much the same talent from those years as a contender, their roster was now the oldest in football and working with a multitude of average quarterbacks. As a result, the team has gone 9-8 and 7-10 the last two seasons, cementing themselves in No Man’s Land.

Now, because they have stayed committed to the current bunch and continued to invest in them, the Saints will have only five draft picks and -$61.7 million dollars in cap next season. So, with essentially no resources to improve in the near future, Saints fans will be forced to watch their team erode until management comes to their senses. 

What else are the Bucs changing this offseason?

Depending on the moves Tampa makes over this offseason and next, they could find themselves in a similar situation to the Saints going forward. While the Bucs still have talent, they came off a pretty disappointing 2022 campaign at 8-9 and didn’t seem to be the contenders they once were.

The Bucs offense ranked 25th in points scored and its defense, which was once the best in the league, ranked in at 20th overall according to PFF. While some could say it was a down year, it felt as though the Bucs’ time in the sun was over, and the GOATs retirement only reaffirmed this.

The Bucs are now tied with the Saints for the oldest roster in football, have just four picks in the top-60 and minimal cap space over the next two drafts, as well as no real answer at QB1. Despite this troubling situation, the Buc’s recent offseason moves point to them doubling down on their commitment to the current roster.

Right off the bat, Tampa’s decision to stick with their current team was evident as they made zero notable cuts or trades and continued to value older players. While this offseason was an opportunity to move off aging players such as Lavonte David and Pat O’Connor due to their contracts ending, Tampa’s brass decided to re-sign them. In free agency, while they had a chance to go after younger, higher ceiling players, they chose to bring in veteran depth pieces such as Greg Gaines and Matt Feiler.

While these are good players, for a team that is fundamentally incapable of contending for anything special, these moves make zero difference towards any meaningful success now, and deter from their success in the future.

Instead, if they chose to create future capital for younger players now, they could, yes, hurt their prospects for next season, but would at least set themselves up to possibly compete for a Super Bowl in the near future. Now, they’ve only ensured another year of hopeless mediocrity in No Man’s Land. However, this move of staying old isn’t what locks them into this fate. 

Tanking for Caleb?

The most destructive move Tampa has made this offseason is at the quarterback position. To be a Super Bowl contending team in today’s NFL, you need to have a legitimate franchise-level quarterback at the helm. However, the Bucs don’t seem to be in the business for one at the moment, as they signed Baker Mayfield to be their starter next season.

While it is possible the Buc’s former 2nd-round pick, Kyle Trask, takes the starting job and blossoms into an elite signal-caller, it’s hard to see it happening. At the end of the day, the kid is entering his third year in the league and has been learning under the best to ever play the position.

If Todd Bowles and his staff aren’t ready to at least give him a shot now, he probably isn’t ever going to be that guy. Nonetheless, the problem with Baker Mayfield is that he is more than capable of winning games, and with a pretty talented roster in Tampa Bay, he probably will win a good amount.

However, if his career has shown us anything, even if he gets them to the playoffs, the Buc’s are in no way a serious contender for the Super Bowl with him at the helm. And unfortunately for Tampa, he will probably win at least enough games to keep them out of a position to draft a generational quarterback in Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, who could be that franchise-level player capable of making them contenders again.

As a result, not only will they accomplish nothing more than a playoff appearance this season, but they will also miss out on a player who could possibly bring them back to the promised land in next year’s draft.

At the end of the day, the decisions that Tampa faces right now is a part of the NFL’s business cycle, and it’s up to them to devise the best strategy for navigating it. Honestly, if history has shown us anything in this league, the strategy franchises should choose is quite obvious.

Rebuild is under way

Those that stick with their aging roster and delay the opportunity to get a franchise-level quarterback typically stay in No Man’s Land, until their team eventually erodes and falls apart. On the other hand, those that attempt to rebuild their roster with young talent, and invest in finding and developing a franchise quarterback, typically find their way back to the mountain-top again. Take the Philadelphia Eagles for example.

After their Super Bowl run in 2017, their window was open for one more year before it was obvious this team had run its course. Nonetheless, they continued to stick with their aging roster and inconsistent quarterback and fell into No Man’s Land in 2019, before completely crashing in 2020. Since it was now abundantly clear this team was no longer what they once were after a 4-11-1 season, the Eagles brass began to rebuild and did so the right way.

They cut ties with aging players and continued to accrue capital for younger players in the coming off-season’s. In addition, they handed the team to a young quarterback in Jalen Hurts who at least had the potential to be a franchise-level player.

Through this, they have now had two first round picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts, and will have another two in 2024. Not to mention, they have been able to add a multitude of other draft picks and big-name signings over the past two off seasons.

Now, entering year three post-meltdown, the Birds have had two postseason appearances including a NFC Championship win in 2022, returning to the Super Bowl just five years after their first world championship.

While yes, the Eagles lucked out and unknowingly had a franchise QB sitting on their bench in 2020, their quick success shows rebuilding isn’t as daunting as it seems, and is a much better alternative to being 8-9 or 7-10 with no upside.

The rebuilding phase is a natural part of the game and front offices are only risking their jobs and wasting fans time by putting it off. As it stands, the Bucs haven’t completely entered No Man’s Land, and have time to rebuild their roster and build capital through moving some of the older talent left on their squad. However, Tampa’s fans can only pray the Bucs front office does so before it’s too late.