Aaron Rodgers – Is he worth it?
The New York Jets’ 2022 season was an utter catastrophe at the quarterback position. They were forced to endure three different players at the position who provided extremely problematic play for an otherwise very surprisingly solid team. Perhaps the most disappointing part of it all was the inexcusable horrific production from 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson in his second year in the NFL.
Not only was Wilson regularly unable to deal with any semblance of pressure in the pocket, he was maddeningly inconsistent when he actually did get a clean pocket, his unorthodox throwing delivery giving way to pass attempts that sailed well off target. As a result, he was benched for Mike White, who didn’t play much better.
By the time the Jets were onto Joe Flacco, it was clear that the most important position was by far their biggest weakness. They had an emergent core of wide receivers, two capable running backs, and a defense that dominated for most of the season. As such, Joe Douglas and Jets ownership began the search for a franchise quarterback.
At first, Derek Carr garnered an intense look-before he chose the Saints instead. Lamar Jackson was a brief target, but ended up returning to the Ravens on his new megadeal. It seemed like the move would have to be the distinct discomfort of bringing back Zach Wilson.
And then Aaron Rodgers visited.
And then he requested a trade from the Green Bay Packers.
And then…IT HAPPENED.
It didn’t immediately officially happen – the Packers demanded an incredible amount that the Jets balked at giving up, and the trade stalled for around a month. But when the Jets finally agreed to give up a first, second, and sixth round pick for 2023, as well as a conditional 2024 second rounder, the future hall of fame quarterback was theirs.
And word on the street is, he’s impressed in minicamp-showing renewed motivation and leadership in a way that may have been lacking late during his run with the Packers. So his contract is now worth an average of $38 million per year through 2025-indicating the Jets belief that he is not only a one-year hiring a-la Brett Favre, he can be the centerpiece of the team for the next half-decade.
Last year, however, Rodgers had a down season. There was a notable reduction in how aggressive the Packers offense was after the loss of Davante Adams, and a lot of people forget how reportedly toxic things got between him and the young wide receivers. Thus, if we’re going to diagnose the move to get him, he probably needs one last look amongst his recent games.
So, let’s dive in.
Is Aaron Rodgers worth all the hype?
Aaron Rodgers is still an extremely good quarterback at many facets of what football requires. He has one of the best pure releases of the football in NFL history, he is an extremely smart and quick decision maker, and he is very good when he gets out of the pocket and has to keep his eyes downfield and focused.
Rodgers’s release on something even as simple as a throw to the flat is so fluid, and so quick, that he doesn’t even have to set his feet when he makes these throws-as odd as it is to cite this as a benefit to his game.
On 2nd and 10 in the second quarter against the Cowboys in Week 10, down 0-7, the Packers are dealing with a cover 3 zone look from the Dallas defense that allows Aaron Jones to come wide open in the flat. Rodgers reacts accordingly, and merely twists part of his upper body around to get it out to Jones, who is able to break one tackle and get a 3rd and short for the Packers offense.
This kind of ability and upper body motion gives Rodgers an additional advantage in the play action game, which, of course, Matt LaFleur deployed heavily within the Packers offense in 2022. The fact that Rodgers does not rely on as much as other quarterbacks to accurately distribute the ball means that he is more effective when he throws on the run, or outside of the pocket.
An example of this is a 2nd and 5 play at the very end of the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys, where the Packers have to start a comeback down by 14 points. Rodgers operates a play action fake out of a singleback look with two receivers out wide to his left, and two tight ends on his right.
The idea of the play is that, since the Cowboys are in man coverage, the release of the tight ends will be the first read that Rodgers takes, as they will have space to potentially get separation. This does not occur, and three different Cowboys defensive linemen get within proximity to Rodgers while he operates within the pocket.
Rodgers simply slides to his left, notices that Sammy Watkins is wide open with his corner playing well off of the in route he is running, and flicks his body toward Watkins for the easy first down completion. By getting out of the pocket, Rodgers turns his third read into darn near a bust, and keeps the Packers offense moving.
Rodgers also has an extremely quick ability to detect a one-on-one situation with his best receivers. One of his favorite things to feast on is a receiver running deep downfield with only one defender on him at a time during a go or post route. Almost every time Rodgers sees this, he will make an attempt at it, and will hit it right on target.
The biggest beneficiary of this is Christian Watson, who regularly takes in touchdown passes from Rodgers in these situations. For example, on a critical 4th and 7 at the beginning of the 4th quarter against the Cowboys. Here, Rodgers is faced with a fake blitz that ends up being a man coverage call with a simple 4 man rush.
Rodgers does the math, slides up in the pocket, and immediately plants a perfect ball in which he not only hits Watson over the top of his corner defending him, but leads him past the deep safety. The result? A 39 yard touchdown for the ages.
So Rodgers is not only accurate, he isn’t as reliant on perfect release mechanics as other quarterbacks. This allows him to very fluidly play the game, whether it’s creating havoc out of the pocket or uncorking his favorite deep balls to his best players.
Nitpicks that might matter
There are two things about Aaron Rodgers that he will need to transition out of in order to maximize his time with the Jets.
First, Rodgers can sometimes show less chemistry with his 2 and 3 receivers than he does with his clear number 1 targets-in the case of last year, the best targets were Christian Watson and Allen Lazard. This will result in an occasional lack of communication with his targets.
The most blatant example of this is a simple 2nd and goal back shoulder fade to Sammy Watkins against the Lions in Week 9. Here, the Packers are faking a switch release to the right side, so that Watkins gets one on one press coverage right at the line of scrimmage. All the play requires is a simple toss his way.
Either Rodgers overshoots him by a country mile, or Watkins stops and tries to fight for what he thinks will be a jump ball. Whatever the case may be on this play, it is an example of poor chemistry and communication with the receiver on the part of Rodgers. Rodgers either needed to more clearly deliver instructions to Watkins on what to run, or needed to react to where he was in the route, depending on his responsibility.
The second occurrence is Rodgers’ occasional decision to be more conservative with the football, when there is a better option downfield. This might come from a bias toward handling certain situations with more of a conservative attitude, but also might come from the same chemistry with receivers already mentioned.
In the case of this play, it’s the former reason. The down and distance is 2nd and 10, and the Packers are running out 4 vertical routes with a quick out to the right sideline. The Lions drop back into zone coverage with 4 defenders taking the deep options. Rodgers can’t find a read, gets out of the pocket, and gets sacked before he can throw the checkdown.
This seems fine at first, until you realize that Lazard, reacting to how he is covered by the safety out of the slot, adjusts and runs a post route to the uncovered middle of the field. Rodgers does not calibrate this, nor does he get to his checkdown on time, resulting in an enormous sack on second and long.
This occurs because Rodgers doesn’t want to take much of a shot downfield-probably in this case because the down and distance is 2nd and 10, and he isn’t greeted with an obvious coverage that gives him an immediate conversion of downs. While this doesn’t always occur, it is something that Rodgers could stand to clean up.
Conclusion
Aaron Rodgers was worth every cost that the Jets paid to get him. Not only does he present a massive upgrade for a roster that is ready to win now and possibly contend for a Super Bowl come January, the evidence out of training camp suggests that he is improving at connecting with his teammates.
This seems like a reset for both the Jets, and for Rodgers. Indications are, it will be worth it for both parties.