Buy Low, Sell High… NFL Teams Week Five
The first four weeks of the NFL season are behind us. Week Five is here, and we are getting an idea of which teams will have a chance to be contenders. Even so, it is easy to be trapped into forming a flawed opinion on a team with a sample size of only four weeks. In this article, I will discuss three teams off to a slow start that I am convinced are contenders and four teams off to a fast start that I believe are pretenders. Essentially, these are the teams that I believe can be “bought low” and “sold high.”
Buy Low…
New England Patriots
The Patriots are now 1-3, with their only win coming against the Steelers in Week Two. Meanwhile, their losses have come to three playoff-caliber teams in the Dolphins, Ravens, and Packers.
In those losses, they were not outmatched. In Week 1, the Patriots moved the ball just as well as the Dolphins and the game would have been a coin flip if it were not for the turnover margin being 3 to 0 in favor of the Dolphins. In Week Three, the Patriots actually outgained the Ravens in yards per play 7.1 to 6.7.
This past week, the Patriots went to overtime with the Packers at Lambeau in a game where third stringer Bailey Zappe was their quarterback. I have seen positive signs from the Patriots in their first four games, and Belichick-coached teams typically get stronger as the year progresses. If the Patriots can weather the storm with Mac Jones out, I believe they can fight for a playoff berth.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders went into this past weekend as the only team with an 0-3 record but came out of it with a 32-23 win over the Broncos to pick up win number one. Even with the win, the Raiders are in last place in the AFC West and there is a sense of disappointment to the start of their season. I think the Raiders can continue to turn their fortunes around.
Their three losses came by a total of 13 points: 24-19 to the Chargers, 29-23 to the Cardinals, and 24-22 to the Titans. In the Cardinals game, they were leading by 16 entering the fourth quarter. In the other two, they fought hard against quality opponents. The bottom line is that they have been battle-tested; and even in their losses, they are showing plenty of fight.
The Raiders face the Chiefs this Monday night, so they may end up being 1-4. However, their schedule then lightens up with contests against the Texans, Saints, and Jaguars in the following weeks. Following those matchups, I would not be surprised to see the Raiders 4-4 and fighting for a playoff spot.
Denver Broncos
It is apparent that Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett have not gotten off to the start they were hoping for in their first season in Denver.
In Week One, the Broncos lost to the Seahawks 17-16, during which Hackett made one of the most questionable calls of the year by opting to try a 64 yard field goal rather than trust Russell Wilson to pick up the first down on a fourth-and-five with just a little over a minute to play.
In Week Two, the Broncos put up a mere 16 points against the Houston Texans in their home opener. And in Week Three, they put up only 11 points and averaged 3.7 yards per play to the 49ers.
This past weekend, they handed the Raiders their first win of the year. Even with all this in mind, I trust that Russell Wilson and the Broncos will turn things around. Wilson has only had one losing season since entering the league in 2012, and it came last year when he was injured for a large portion of it. The Broncos are loaded with talent on offense,
particularly at the skill position groups. On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos have shown positive signs, as well. To begin this year, the defense is allowing just 285 yards per game, which is good for 4th best in the league. Even in a tough division that features three playoff-caliber teams, I would buy low on the Broncos right now.
Sell High…
Jacksonville Jaguars
There is a lot of hype around the Jaguars, but I am not sure that it is entirely warranted. Yes, the Jaguars are a better team than they were a year ago with Urban Meyer as their head coach. Doug Pederson is a significant upgrade, Trevor Lawrence has made significant improvements in his second year as quarterback, and many of the acquisitions the Jaguars made this offseason are paying off.
However, I do not think this is a playoff team. Outside of the Colts, the only game the Jaguars have won over the last two seasons was against the injury-laden Chargers in Week Three.
When stepping up in class against the Eagles this past weekend, they were outscored 29-7 after jumping out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Simply put, the Jaguars will need to show me more if they are going to make me a believer.
New York Giants
The Giants are now 3-1, bringing life and energy to a fanbase that has not had much to cheer for in recent years. Nonetheless, I do not think the success the Giants have had is sustainable and that will likely be the case in this week’s matchup in London versus the Packers.
Not a single one of the three wins for the Giants has come against an elite opponent. Sure, the comeback victory versus the Titans in Week 1 was nice but the narrow victories versus the Panthers and Bears is nothing to get excited about. In fact, the Giants have played the second easiest schedule.
up to this point. Against this schedule, the Giants have only put up 19 points a game. This team has found a way to win the games in front of them, but I am not a believer that this squad will sustain their success when they step up in class.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 3-1, with all three of their wins coming with Cooper Rush as their quarterback. The Cowboys fanbase, and others, now seem to think that the sky is the limit if the Cowboys are having this much success with Cooper Rush. I am not one of those people.
First off, I do not think there is a significant gap between Prescott and Rush. Prescott is the better quarterback and should be the starter again when he is fully healthy, but I would only make the Cowboys a point or two better in any given game with Dak in the lineup.
Secondly, the recent games the Cowboys have won have not come against elite competition. To be fair, their win in Week Two against the Bengals was impressive. However, the Bengals dominated that game after the Cowboys took the early lead and it is worth noting that the Bengals were coming off a tough overtime loss against the Steelers in Week One.
The other wins for the Cowboys, against the Giants and Commanders, do not impress me. I am not saying the Cowboys will finish at the bottom of the NFC East or have a losing record at year’s end, but I am selling the idea that the Cowboys are a top five, or even a top ten team, in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks
Nobody was too excited for the Seahawks coming into the season, but with the Seahawks starting 2-2 there seems to be growing optimism that this team could be a contender. Although the Seahawks may end up being better than I had thought, I am not optimistic that they will make the playoffs or even finish .500. In fact, I still expect this team to finish near the bottom of the NFC.
West. Up to this point, the Seahawks have allowed 428 yards per game, which is second worst in the NFL behind the Lions. Their point differential is -20, and the competition they have faced has been nothing to write home about. Despite their Week One win against the Broncos, they were outgained by 180 yards in that game. This was against a Denver team that was still finding its footing with a new quarterback and head coach.
In their narrow victory this past weekend, the Seahawks allowed 45 points to a Lions team that was missing some of their top weapons on offense. In a division with the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals, expect the Seahawks to be at the bottom of the standings when it is all said and done.
There are 18 weeks of regular season football for a reason. A team’s record can be deceiving just four weeks into the season, and it is important to dig deeper in order to obtain a more complete understanding of that team.
The NFL is unpredictable, and it always seems there is some 1-3 team that ends up finding its way into the playoffs or there is some 4-0 or 3-1 team that collapses. For our excitement, let’s hope it stays that way.
