Are the days of early first-round running backs over?
by Thom Allison
Let’s go back to the opening night of the 2018 NFL draft. New York Giants GM Dave Gettleman is on the clock with the 2nd selection.
In a QB rich draft, would the Giants finally plan for life after Eli Manning? Perhaps opting for Wyoming prospect, Josh Allen? Or would they address their timid pass rush by taking NC State superstar Bradley Chubb?
As we know now, neither of these scenarios came to pass. Dave Gettleman was a man with a not-so-secret plan.
With that coveted pick, Big Blue opted for Penn State running back sensation Saquon Barkley, much to the approval of the majority of fans and draft analysts.
Let’s be clear here. Barkley was a generational talent. He could have gone first overall, if the Browns did not have such a huge need at QB.
Fast forward to 2022 and the landscape for Barkley and NFL running backs in general has shifted dramatically.
It is unlikely that we’ll see any in the position having their name called on the opening night of this year’s draft, let alone anywhere near to second overall.
Infact, if foolhardy GM’s consider using a top 10 pick on a running back in future drafts, they’ll likely find themselves quickly at the head of the unemployment line.
Yes, it’s fair to say that the value of RBs has never been lower. It reaffirms the well-worn adage of many a NFL data analyst that ‘running backs don’t matter’. Well, except if you’re Ryan Tannerhill.
Value in the NFL will always be dictated by how much cash GM’s are willing to part with in order to retain a players services. With the career span of the average NFL RB so short, it’s hard to see how this can improve for the players.
The root of the problem for running backs
Christian McCaffrey, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott offer a small sample of lead backs who have been rewarded handsomely with long-term contracts over the past few years. And that is by no means an exhaustive list.
However, a combination of injuries and decline in production after the cheque is cashed, has left some GMs, like Gettleman, with buyer’s remorse.
It takes a certain type of individual to be an NFL running back. The position is one of the most physically demanding on the football field, and the punishment is unrelenting.
It is often not a case of if a RB will sustain an injury. But when, and for how long.
We’ve seen some elite running backs fall out of the league because of injury concerns. Todd Gurley for example, is a former top ten pick and was once considered to be the best in his position.
Despite picking up a second consecutive All-Pro selection in 2018, Gurley was out of the league as a free agent just two years later. Injury concerns resulted in the Rams and later the Falcons not being able to financially justify keeping him.
Increased dependence on elite QBs
Another reason behind the decline in share price for RBs is a change in philosophy throughout the league.
Most offensive coordinators are now serving up a pass heavy diet of play calls. Gone are the days of smash mouth football and a single RB being the centre piece of an offense.
Today’s NFL is about skill, finesse and throwing more than 40 times a game.
Quarterbacks are now far more accurate and are putting up record completion and TD to INT rates.
The league itself has done its bit to facilitate this uptick, placing QBs in witness protection from opposition defensive lineman.
This isn’t to say that running backs are at all worthless. Infact, they are still an incredibly important aspect for any team.
You absolutely need an elite run game if you’re going to be successful in the NFL.
But given the churn of players at the position and being able to pick up good backs on the cheap so easily, teams are no longer willing to part with their prized assets to acquire a running back, especially early in the draft.
Will we see a top ten running back pick anytime soon?
In the NFL, as in life, perception is reality. At this moment in time, the belief is that RBs are replaceable and interchangeable.
Being the copycat league that it is, once a precedent has been set, other teams soon fall into line.
Why spend big or invest a high value pick when quality RBs can still be found in later rounds?
It even makes sense to pick up a veteran as a minimum, without it negatively impacting a team’s production.
But can this theory really be justified? Well, the answer appears to be yes, and no.
In 2020, Michael Lopez, who is the NFL’s director of football data and analytics examined a data model constructed using next gen stats which sought to explore the effectiveness and real value of RB’s.
His findings were that top tier backs with a scheme built around them, are positive contributors to a team’s overall success.
But given this can only be applied to a handful of players, it’s fair to assume that analysis like Lopez’s will not be cause GM’s to revaluate their beliefs about the value of the position.
We may have to wait a while before a running back is taken near the top of any future draft again.
