Game preview: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Week 13 kicks off Thursday Night with the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots playing at Gillette Stadium. The two teams came into this divisional game with different results on Thanksgiving with the Bills narrowly winning against the Lions 28-25 while mistakes overshadowed a strong offensive performance in a 33-26 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings.

Here is a breakdown of what you need to know for this AFC East clash from injuries to what to look out for.

Injuries going into the game

Buffalo will be without significant players in Dion Dawkins and Von Miller. Pro Bowl linebacker Miller sustained a knee injury in the second quarter of the Thanksgiving game against the Lions. As a result he will miss the game vs New England with a lateral meniscus tear. However this week on The Von Cast, Miller addressed his injury and hopes to be back for Week 14 against the New York Jets.

“The news is not the best of news, but it’s definitely not the worst of news. It’s kinda like in the middle… I didn’t tear my ACL; that was the huge part of it. I do have some lateral meniscus damage, and it’s going to have to be addressed. But I do feel like I can play through that. Just going to wait a little bit, wait a little bit, let the swelling go down for about seven to 10 days. And hopefully right before the Jets game, I will be back.”

For Dawkins, who suffered an ankle injury in the game against the Lions, it will be just the second game Dawkins has missed since the Bills drafted him in the second round in 2017.

On the New England side of things, they remain without running back Damien Harris and offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn. Veteran safety Jabrill Peppers also sat out Tuesday’s practice with an illness, putting his availability in the air as the game comes closer.

Who fills in for Von Miller?

As mentioned, Miller will miss his first game of the season against the Patriots. The Super Bowl 50 MVP currently leads the Bills in sacks with eight and he has also brought a veteran presence that the Bills locker room needed as well that has helped others to flourish in their roles such as Greg Rousseau and third year DE AJ Epenesa. The Bills have had their issues with health for their D-line in the past week, but this time it looks like they will get Rousseau back in the lineup and Epenesa back in the rotation as they each return from ankle injuries.

Miller who provided a key aspect to their defence will be missed, the defence will be expected to dial up their rushing and pressure on Patriots quarterback Mac Jones and their offence. Bills defensive coordinator Lesile Frazier would probably continue to have linebacker Matt Milano being a key player in the pressure game. Milano had shown progression in being a consistent and key figure in the defence.

Other players such as Ed Oliver and the three other defensive tackles on Buffalo’s defensive interior have been blowing up the interior of offensive lines the past two weeks and are glowing with confidence as to what they can do in collapsing the pocket in the absence of Miller.

It will take a collective group effort to replicate the impact and production that Miller has and for one game it is doable but it will be a tough task but the defensive front will be ready to do so in Foxborough.

Both teams, a win is a must!

In a game that will certainly have a playoff-type atmosphere for both teams a win is needed, as the stakes are high. Buffalo sits at 8-3 tied with Miami Dolphins for the best record in the AFC East, but when it comes to division records they have lost against the Dolphins and Jets.

Sean McDermott’s side have four games left against AFC East opposition and this game presents an opportunity to change their fortunes in hopes of winning another AFC East crown as they chase their first division win of the season. The Bills have played well the last two seasons against the Patriots in New England, going 2-0 in those contests, which is important since they often say “division games count double.”

For New England, playoff implications lie ahead. Lose and the light at the end of the tunnel gets further away, win and it gets closer. Their remaining games are not favoured as they have tough matchups against the Bills and Bengals being accompanied by road contests versus the 4-8 Arizona Cardinals and 4-7 Raiders, as well as another game against the Dolphins.

This game is also a chance for New England to get their 7th win of the season and damage Buffalo’s chance at a division title and to get closer to the New York Jets in the standings.

Jones and Co. need to continue offensive form

Against the Vikings, Mac Jones posted career-high 382 passing yards, while also setting season-high marks in completions (28), touchdown passes (two) and passer rating (119.8). This statline is something that Bill Belichick’s side has not seen from Mac Jones as he and the Patriots offence have been struggling for consistency throughout the season but last week their offence exploded for two touchdowns and four field goals which is better than their average stats.

Even though their offence looked good, the Patriots failed to convert it into a win as they failed to come from behind to win the game late. That was on display again this past week when New England could not overcome a touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter.

New England will hope to build on this production despite facing a tough Bills defence which ranks near the top of the league.

“I think we did some good stuff last week for a shorter week,” said Patriots QB Mac Jones. “That’s how it is on Thursday games. Obviously, we watched the film and corrected the things. We know what we’re going against. They’re the best defence in the league. So we have to be ready for that. It really starts with us, just playing the best football we can.”

Offensive coordinator Matt Patrica will have a tall task in making sure his offence can put together a string of plays and drives in ensuring that Mac Jones and Co can finally be reliable enough to win the game solely on attack. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots adopt a tactic out of the Lions’ offensive playbook.

Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, and the Lions won against Buffalo’s man coverage.

How to stop the QB’s

Josh Allen will be facing against a New England defence that he has tortured in his last two games against them as he has 459 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Patriots have a highly ranked defence that has taken over several games this season. But there has been a clear disparity between their results versus the best quarterbacks and the ones below that mark. Talented QBs and high-powered offences haven’t had their way with the Patriots, but they’ve had far more success against them this season than lesser ones by a wide margin.  

For New England, their pass-rush unit up front has been inconsistent. The loss of defensive tackle Christian Barmore has harmed the interior pressure, and while Matt Judon has been mostly excellent as an outside rusher this season, there have been far too many games where other Patriots have not stepped up.

Nine of their 37 sacks came against the hapless Colts. And the inconsistencies go all the way back to the three Bills games last season. Allen was sacked twice on 32 dropbacks in Week 13 a year ago, but he was not sacked and was hit only five times in 72 dropbacks combined in the Week 16 game and playoff battle.

The Patriots can’t let Allen’s arm and legs dictate the game; they must throw him off rhythm and get him out of his spots, and they must create turnover-worthy opportunities to have a shot at stopping him and to allow Mac Jones the chance to get the wheels turning for them. Therefore the pass rush will need to elevate their level of play in order to stop Allen and the Bills.

The Bills will have three heavy hitters back in Edmunds, Rousseau, and Epenesa to help with pocket pressure and run defence, to complement the strong play of linebacker Matt Milano and tackle Ed Oliver. They’ll need it without Miller, but having those hands on deck could make life difficult for Jones and the Patriots’ offensive line.

White’s return is significant for a Buffalo defensive backfield that has struggled recently and will need to be on their game against Jones and the New England receiving corps after their Week 11 performance.

Attack, attack, attack!

If last week’s Patriots loss to the Vikings is any indication of what opportunities may exist for the Bills offence, taking what the defence gives you may include some Thanksgiving leftovers. New England’s defence did well against Minnesota in stopping the run, but struggled to defend their passing game, and their special teams struggled to defend, allowing a 97-yard kickoff return. But playing against a team like Buffalo, mistakes like that can be very costly and will allow Allen’s receiver to feast on the gaps in coverage.

Stefon Diggs in his last three games against the Patriots he scored a touchdown in each. In those games, he has averaged 6.5 receptions, just over 93 yards in four games against the Patriots and that was with top cornerbacks like Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in New England’s secondary. Diggs is aiming for his third consecutive game against the Patriots with a touchdown reception.

Last week, New England corner Jonathan Jones had a pick while defending star receiver Justin Jefferson, but Jefferson beat him on routes for the majority of the game, gaining 139 yards on nine receptions with a touchdown. If Jones is assigned to defend Diggs, who is known for his route running, it could mean another big day for the receiver. If he’s on fellow receiver Gabe Davis, whom Diggs has mentored in route running techniques, Davis could be productive as well.

Either way Diggs and Davis will look to bust any zone coverage that the Pats secondary will throw their way, but the secondary will have a tough day against all the receivers including Isaiah McKenzie who was crucial in the Bills win at Foxborough last year.