Game recap: Patriots lose classic at Lambeau Field

The New England Patriots (1-3) fell to the Green Bay Packers (3-1) by a score of 27-24 in an overtime thriller. 

Note 1: Legend coach Bill Belichick makes biggest in-game mistake

Despite all odds, the Patriots were in position to beat the heavily-favored Packers. Not only did the third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe put enough points on the board to tie four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, but then the Patriots defense did their job and stopped Rodgers in overtime. 

Rookie punt returner Marcus Jones had a fantastic run and brought the ball to near midfield. The Patriots offense gained five yards in the three ensuing plays. 

Then, from the 46 yard line of Green Bay’s territory with less than seven minutes left in overtime, Belichick and “not the offensive coordinator” Matt Patricia decided to punt. 

Instead, the coaches could have opted to trust their kicker and gone for a potentially game-winning 61 yard field goal. In today’s NFL, 61 yards is a doable kick. 

Last year, Baltimore’s kicker Justin Tucker hit a game-winning kick from 66 yards out. Earlier that day, kicker Will Lutz of the Saints and kicker Chris Boswell of the Steelers hit 60 yard attempts. Clearly, New England’s coaches did not have confidence in their own kicker Nick Folk. 

The Surrender Index, a metric devised by Secret Base writer Jon Bois, has determined the statistical favorability of every single punt since 1999. The favorability is measured by taking yard to go, yard line, time remaining, and score all into account. 

The algorithm determined that, in terms of favorability, New England’s overtime punt fell in the bottom 0.6% of all punts: 

The Patriots tend to be too conservative in their decision-making and play-calling. It often saves the Patriots from giving their opponents a short field, but giving Rodgers the ball back in any capacity was enough to lose the game today.

Just two weeks ago, quarterback Mac Jones prevented the Pittsburgh Steelers from touching the ball again when he got possession with seven minutes left in the game. Belichick and Patricia’s assumption that the Packers wouldn’t be able to run out the clock was a significant underestimation of their opponents. 

Note 2: Patriots turn to third-string QB for second time in 30 years

After Jones was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain earlier this week, veteran back-up quarterback Brian Hoyer was slated to start the game. Hoyer led the Patriots to a field goal on their opening drive. However, on New England’s second possession, Hoyer got concussed when he was sacked on a third down. Another quarterback was needed. 

The rookie fourth round pick from Western Kentucky, Bailey Zappe, was called to step up in a big moment. He shattered all expectations. Zappe completed ten of his fifteen attempts, threw for 99 yards, and connected with wide receiver DeVante Parker on a touchdown pass. The Patriots learned that they have a serviceable back-up for Jones in case of emergencies. 

In the last three decades, the Patriots have needed back-up quarterbacks less than any other NFL franchise. With the exception of the 2001 and 2008 seasons, today’s game against the Packers was the ninth time the Patriots started a back-up since 1993. 

In the seven seasons between 1994 and 2000, quarterback Drew Bledsoe missed three total starts. The fourth time Bledsoe couldn’t play in a game, New England’s sophomore sixth round pick named Tom Brady stepped in. 

Brady became the permanent starter in 2002 and with the exception of 2008, he missed four career starts with the Patriots. Unlike most other elite quarterbacks, Brady never missed a Week 17 start, even when his team had the one-seed clinched. In 2008, Brady suffered a season-long knee injury in the first quarter of the first game and missed the rest of the season. 

In one of Brady’s four missed starts, back-up quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo also got hurt and the Patriots had to bring third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett on the field. Brissett led the Patriots to a victory that afternoon. 

The following week, Brissett and the Patriots were completely shut-out by the Buffalo Bills. This is the only other time when the Patriots have used their third-string quarterback in thirty years. 

Brady left the Patriots in 2019. His successor, Cam Newton played fifteen out of sixteen games in 2020. When Newton was not up to head coach Bill Belichick’s standards, current starting quarterback Mac Jones was selected in the first round of the 2021 draft.

Today was the first time Jones ever missed a start. For Patriots fans, needing Hoyer and then needing third-stringer Zappe was uncharted territory. 

Perhaps, it’s because back-up quarterbacks are such a rare occurrence in New England, but Patriot fans could not help but think of comparisons to this moment after Zappe’s heroics:

Note 3: Pats lose in overtime again 

Overtime games are also uncommon for New England. Including the playoffs, the Patriots have only played eight overtime games in the last ten years. On average, teams will play one overtime game per season. The Patriots have more games than every other team and have played less overtime games than most of them. 

The Patriots are perceived as a strong (or lucky) overtime team. They are remembered for having the only overtime Super Bowl victory in NFL history against the Falcons in 2016. The other well known Patriots overtime game is their 2018 AFC Championship Game victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Patriots have not won any overtime game since 2018. 

However, in the regular season, New England’s performances in overtime have been much worse. With today’s loss, their record in regular season overtime games drops to 1-5 in the last ten seasons. Now, the Patriots have lost their last four regular season overtime games. The last regular season overtime victory for New England came against Denver in Week 12 of 2013. 

Looking ahead

The Detroit Lions (1-3) come to New England (1-3) next week. The two teams are fairly evenly matched. Detroit’s defense has been awful so far. They gave up 38 points to Philadelphia, 27 points to Washington, 28 points to Minnesota, and 48 points to Seattle. 

If the Patriots cannot put up at least 24 points against the Lions, it is a sign that their offense is really far behind the rest of the league. 

However, beating the Lions will not be easy. Detroit’s offense has been electric so far. They scored 35 points in Week 1, 36 points in Week 2, 24 points in Week 3, and 45 points in Week 4. 

Detroit’s offensive performance against Seattle in Week 4 was especially impressive because they played without their two best offensive weapons: wide receiver Amon Ra St. Brown and running back D’Andre Swift.