Is CJ Stroud the consensus Offensive Rookie of the Year favourite?

Heading into the 2023 NFL season a litany of names were being touted as potential rookie of the year candidates, but has CJ Stroud already separated himself from the pack?  

Through the first third of the season, the Houston Texans have been one of the league’s surprise packages, with a first-year head coach and QB tandem of Demeco Ryans and CJ Stroud many understandably expected this to be a period of transition for Houston as they look to have a franchise QB for the first time since Deshaun Watson was in town.   

However, what has transpired through the early part of the season is cause for extreme optimism in Houston, after 6 weeks Stroud and the Texans find themselves sitting at .500 at 3-3, and if not for a last-gasp field goal on the road in Atlanta, Houston would find themselves 4-2 after the first 6 games of the season.   

Many expected CJ Stroud to be a success in this league, despite Ohio State QBs having a chequered history when it comes to transitioning to the pros from the college ranks many expected Stroud to buck that trend. When the Carolina Panthers made the trade up to number one overall to select a Quarterback Stroud immediately became the bookies favourite to be taken first overall.   

New Panthers’ head coach Frank Reich had a long history of working with tall signal callers, during his time as offensive coordinator in Philadelphia and as a head coach in Indianapolis. So, despite arguably being the most talented QB in the draft, 5’10 Bryce Young did not fit the mould of Reich’s typical QB mould. However, after rumours of interference from Panthers owner David Tepper, it was Young’s name who was called first on draft night, leaving Houston in a position to select Stroud with the second pick. 

It continued a long-standing friendly rivalry between the first and second picks, the pair had been friends since they both competed at the elite level of the California High School system. During his time at Ohio State, Stroud was noted for his immense accuracy with the ability to fit throws in the tightest of windows. Questions were levelled at how Stroud would deal with the challenges of the NFL, coupled with the fact he had some of the best skill position players at the collegiate level.   

However, Stroud has taken to the NFL like a duck to water, Stroud broke the record for most passing attempts without an interception to begin an NFL career. The previous record set by Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott stood at 176, when Stroud threw his first interception in week 6 against the New Orleans Saints, his 191st pass attempt in the league.   

So, with Stroud taking to the pace of the league with ease where does that leave the player regarding rookie of the year odds? Before the season began while Stroud was firmly in the conversation talk was more centred around the likes of Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and Bijan Robinson were more talked about names.   

Fast forward 6 weeks into the season and that narrative has changed, Richardson is out for the season after season-ending shoulder surgery, while Young has shown steady improvement the Panthers are 0-6 and Young finds himself in a tough situation. As for Robinson, he has shown flashes of the incredible player we saw for Texas, but with Desmond Ridder as his QB who is arguably the league’s worst starting QB there are limitations to the Falcons offense.   

According to FanDuel Sportsbook Stroud is the clear favourite to take the OROTY crown, he is currently listed at –175 to take the award, with Rams rookie WR sensation Puka Nacua the second favourite at +450, the 5th round pick out of BYU had an incredible start to his career in LA, but since the return of stud, WR Cooper Kupp Nacua has seen his role diminish somewhat.   

Then rounding out the top 3, you have Bijan Robinson at +750. Robinson at +750 is still good money, with the obvious deficiencies in Desmond Ridders’ play that leave Robinson as the focal point of a weakened Falcons offence.   

This may be my bias as a Panthers fan talking, but Bryce Young at +7500 may be an outside bet. Young is dealing with a mess in Carolina, a lacklustre running game, a banged-up offensive line, and a 33-year-old Adam Thielen as his only viable receiver. However, Young has shown steady improvement over his first 5 starts and with some winnable games on the schedule for Carolina if Young continues to improve and Carolina gets some wins in the column Young could move up the ladder.  

However, as it stands Stroud is the clear favourite, we know QB is a premium position and Stroud has been the best so far, with the Texans being a pleasant surprise through 6 weeks, if Stroud continues on the same trajectory, it would seem likely OROY is in the bag.   

What Stroud has shown is that he wasn’t a product of his weapons at Ohio State and despite it being reported he had scored poorly on the S-2 cognitive test Stroud belongs in this league and it seems the Texans have found a franchise QB to build around.