Is Mac Jones Primed for Success in New England?
When the Buffalo Bills thoroughly drubbed the New England Patriots in the 2021 Wild Card round, it cast doubt on if the talent on that year’s Patriots roster was truly worthy of making the playoffs.
The tandem of Josh Allen and Stephon Diggs appeared to be miles ahead of New England’s offense. The Buffalo Bills scored on their first seven drives and the Patriots simply could not match their firepower.
Since then, the Patriots offense has seen quite a few departures. Long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left to become the head coach for the Las Vegas Raiders. The offensive line endured the loss of center Ted Karras and left guard Shaq Mason. Skill position players Gunner Olszewski, Jakob Johnston, and Brandon Bolden also moved on from New England.
Because of these losses some analysts are predicting that the Patriots offense will not see the same level of success that they had in 2021. However, there are some signs of hope for the Patriots offense that have gone overlooked. It is possible that they’re not in as dire of a position as it may seem.
Rise of second year QBs
The success of the Patriots offense ultimately rides on sophomore quarterback Mac Jones. Of the five quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft, Jones had the most productive season.
He threw for 22 touchdowns and 3800 yards. In terms of touchdowns, Jones dwarfed his rookie competition. Trevor Lawrence’s 12 touchdowns and Zach Wilson’s 9 touchdowns did not even add up to his total. For yardage, Jones eked out the highest number, beating Lawrence by only 150 years.
The greatest quarterbacks tend to see a leap in their production in their second year. Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes all won Super Bowls in their second full season.
Lamar Jackson went from a 58% completion rate with six touchdowns and three interceptions in his first year to the NFL’s MVP in his second year. Most recently last year, Joe Burrow took the leap from a middling rookie to an elite quarterback with a 70% completion rate and 34 touchdowns.
It is not certain that Mac Jones will make this special jump in production. However, based on historical trends, he is more primed than anyone else to make this type of advancement in 2022.
Skill Positions
New England’s wide receiver corps has improved. Jakobi Myers, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne are all coming back for another season. In April, the Patriots traded a third round draft pick in order to add DeVante Parker to this group.
DeVante Parker had a very efficient season last year, averaging thirteen yards per catch. Between all of these receivers, it is the best set of pass catchers that the Patriots have had since they won the Super Bowl in 2018.
Furthermore, running back James White, the long-tenured offensive Patriot, will return from injury. His ability to both rush and catch the ball makes him a valuable asset to Mac Jones and this Patriots offense.
Most importantly, star running back Damian Harris is set to return for his third season with an active role on the Patriots. With more than six hundred yards in his rookie season and more than nine hundred yards in his second year, 2022 could be the year Harris break the magic 1,000 yards.
Harris would be the first Patriots running back to break that milestone since Corey Dillon in 2004. The days of Cam Newton, N’Keal Harry, and Damiere Byrd are now behind the Patriots.
An Elite Offensive Line
When looking at the offensive line, most of the same pieces of the elite squad from 2021 are still in place. At left tackle, Isaiah Wynn is looking to be the starter for the fourth straight year. When he starts, Wynn plays at a high level, but he has consistently dealt with injuries for his whole career.
At left guard, we see the largest change in the Patriots offensive line. Belichick traded Shaq Mason for a fifth round pick. Then, the Patriots used their first round selection on Cole Strange to be Mason’s successor. Historically, from Logan Mankins to Joe Thuney, the Patriots have done very well drafting offensive linemen, but Strange’s first round selection surprised many analysts.
David Andrews will be starting his seventh year at center in New England. Ted Karras, now on the Bengals, will no longer be able to be a sure-handed replacement for him in case of injury. Michael Onwenu will be starting at right guard for the third straight season.
Finally, at right tackle, six foot eight stalwart Trent Brown will anchor the entire line as a top-level talent. If more protection is needed for Mac Jones, tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry can step up and be effective sixth or even seventh blockers.
More involvement from Belichick
McDaniels’s departure could be seen as a loss for the Patriots. New England still has not named an official replacement for McDaniels. As a consequence, head coach Bill Belichick will have more involvement in how the offense is run.
The Patriots offense had gotten stale by the end of last year. According to Establish the Run, they ran the ball around 8% more than statistical models predicted them to. This includes running the ball 38% of the time on 1st Down, which was the fifth highest rate in the NFL.
In contrast, according to Establish the Run, the most successful offenses in 2021 (Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Green Bay) threw the ball 5% more than statistical models predicted. On average, these three teams only ran the ball 26% of the time on first down. Therefore, surprising teams with extra passing plays proved to be definitively more successful. Needless to say, leaving the 2021 season, New England’s play calling was behind the curve.
Furthermore, the last time a highly-touted long-term coordinator left New England, it was when Matt Patricia was hired by the Detroit Lions following the 2017 season. Patricia’s departure let Bill Belichick and Brian Flores take control of the defense. Patricia’s defenses were statistically deficient. The 2017 Patriots ranked 31st in defensive DVOA.
Once Particia left, there were immediate improvements. The 2018 Patriots had an average (16th ranked) defense, but improved as the season went on. Then, the 2019 Patriots were by far the best defense that year. They did not let up a touchdown until their fourth game and led the league in takeaways.
Belichick’s increased participation could help the functioning and consistency of the Patriots offense. If Belichick can recognize what were the problems with the offense over the last three years, there is a real possibility that the story of the 2022 Patriots offense could mirror the story of the 2018 Patriots defense.
The Patriots still don’t have any superstars on the offense. Trent Brown is the only player likely to make the Pro Bowl, but this doesn’t mean that they are doomed to regress. The expectations for the Patriots offense are low, which gives them the perfect to shock the world.
Mac Jones has a super talented running back in the backfield, many serviceable options to throw to, an wall of an offensive line in front of him, and the most accomplished coach in the world talking into his ear. Jones has all the tools he needs to succeed.
The Patriots offense is well-rounded. Even though no individual names stand out above the others, the Patriots still have the potential to excel as a team.
