James Fallows’ 2023 NFL Awards Predictions

The new season is upon us and whilst many fans will be in an optimistic mindset heading into the new campaign, there is as always, reason for more hope and excitement around some teams more than others.

The offseason is designed to allow teams to shift the narrative on their previous season if needs be and up to now, we’ve seen a legend finally opt for a life of retirement whilst (probably), whilst another finally upped-sticks to change teams.

The draft saw three franchises start afresh at the most important position in sports, as three quarterbacks were selected in the first round; all of whom have been named week one starters. Several new head coach hirings, the sale of the Washington Commanders and so much more.

I’m looking ahead to week one’s games and making some predictions for how I think things will pan out but also, thinking about the season in general and making some predictions for each of the year’s main awards. Some long-shots included but then, where’s the fun in following the script. Wish me luck!

Most Valuable Player (MVP): Joe Burrow

Cincinnati is going to make a deep run this year and I think they have the best shot since Joe Burrow’s arrival at winning it all. He infamously stated that his team’s window for success is ‘his whole career’ but you’ve got to make hay whilst the sun shines, and it’s pretty damn bright The Queen City right now.

Last season Burrow threw for 4,475 yards and  35 touchdowns and, niggling calf-injury aside, there’s no great reason that we won’t see an increase on those numbers this time around. The AFC North is arguably the toughest division in football but Burrow has a cool head, experience in big games and enough playmakers around him to keep making explosive plays and leave defenses guessing.

With their win total set at 11.5 with FanDuel, the Bengals are tied with the Chiefs for the highest win total in the AFC. Of the three favorites to be the No. 1 seed, the Bengals have by far the easiest schedule – ranking 16th-most difficult, per 2023 win totals.

In the mix: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen

Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY): Garrett Wilson

This is something of a long-shot but if the New York Jets are to have the success that many have predicted them for, they’re going to need big things from their second-year receiver.

In his rookie season, Wilson finished with 1,103 receiving yards and that was whilst he was catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco.

To win this award he’s likely going to need to lead the league in receiving yards. He’s already shown good chemistry with new QB, Aaron Rodgers – and we all know he likes to throw to his top guy who wears number 17. If Wilson is matched up one-on-one and that O-line is looking a little leaky early on, expect A-Rod to drop dimes on his number one target and watch the numbers quickly begin to stack up.

In the mix: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Mar Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown 

Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY): Maxx Crosby

Yes, I’m going for my guy Maxx Crosby to finally get the pop that he deserves ahead of the usual contenders. 

Now, I don’t necessarily expect the Raiders to cause too much of an upset over expectations, but I do see signs of growth and that leads me to think/hope that they could have a season just over .500. If that’s going to happen then the defense, which has been the team’s problem child for far too long now, needs to step up from being a 31st-ranked unit in dropback EPA in 2022.

The combination pass-rush of first-round rookie Tyree Wilson and Crosby might ease the blocking focus 0n Mad Maxx and allow him to cause even more disruption than he has done these past two seasons. 

In the mix: Myles Garrett, Sauce Gardener, T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons

Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY): Bijan Robinson

No need to get too cute here. The only question that could come into play is will he be able to break Eric Dickerson’s 39 year record of 2,212 scrimmage yards as a rookie?

It’s both likely and unlikely in my opinion. Likely because of who Bijan Robinson is as a player and the way that the Arthur Smith system utilizes and gets the best from his runners. Unlikely because I expect Robinson to get targeted quite a bit in the passing game.

He’s a do-it-all kind of a back and is likely to quickly become the Desmond Ridder safety blanket should all other options seem too problematic.

In the mix: Jahymr Gibbs, Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young

Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY): Joey Porter Jr.

There is a lot of excitement in Pittsburgh over rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. Despite being listed behind Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace on the depth chart, Porter Jr is going to get early reps and will be an asset to his team in both the short and long-term.

There’s a lot to like about the rookie’s game – he has the length and physicality at the line to be able to knock receivers off their routes early on and it won’t be a surprise to see his workload increase as the year goes on.

He has fallen to one of the best coaches in the league to aid in his development and don’t be surprised to see his name mentioned a lot in this category come the end of the year.

In the mix: Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzalez and Will Anderson Jr

Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin

I mean, come on. Who else can even come close? Let’s just give him the award now and be done with it. This is a no brainer.

Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin

Mike Tomlin has NEVER been named coach of the year!

Other names might play a flashier brand of football but I expect this to be the year that Tomlin is recognised, not just for the great job that I think he will do with the Steelers this year, but for his previous campaigns achievements also. You could say this is his DiCaprio Oscars moment, like a lifetime achievement award.

The Steelers foster success for young players and Tomlin plays a huge part in that. That’s why they’re always good. We’ll find out soon if what we saw in the preseason was worth paying attention to.

His impressive record of never having a losing record as a head coach will be firmly put to the test this season as the Steelers open against the San Francisco 49ers and are part of, what looks to be, an extremely challenging AFC North. 

There’s 11 or more wins potential in this team and if Tomlin and a savvy group of veterans can maximize the potential of their younger players, the future could be bright for years to come.

In the mix: Robert Saleh, Dan Campbell and Pete Carroll

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AFC Division Winners: New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Wildcards: Buffalo Bills, L.A. Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Division Winners: Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wildcards: San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl: New York Jets over the Seattle Seahawks – is more about what I’d like to see (if the Raiders can’t win it that is) than what is most likely.