James Fallows’ NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Picks 1-31
With just a few days to go until the start of the NFL Draft, with new information and player trades having been dealt, I decided to go back to the drawing board and take another shot at a mock draft.
It seems like every possible permutation has been discussed and yet, there will be some surprise that no one expects. It happens every year, and this year will be no different.
This mock draft isn’t an attempt to accurately predict what will happen when the picks start coming in for real. That’s impossible. It’s simply my interpretation of the NFL’s current landscape, the needs for each team and just one or two curveballs in there, you know, to keep things a bit interesting.
The only thing I’ve not done that will inevitably happen on draft night, is that I’ve not included any trades this time. The board is as it is and each team is dealt the card that they currently hold.
Enjoy!
1. Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
New coach Frank Reich has talked about the importance of size at the position but Young is the most NFL-ready quarterback on the board and so overtakes C.J. Stroud as this year’s number one selection.
2. Houston Texans – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Pass rusher Will Anderson is the safest pick in the draft and fills an obvious need for the Texans along their defensive line. Many think that QB will be the way that Houston goes first, but look out for new head coach DeMeco Ryans to put in a call to his old pals in San Francisco to see if they can trade away their third rounder and reignite Trey Lance’s career away from The Bay.
3. Arizona Cardinals – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Jalen Carter was arguably the best defender on a ’21 Georgia defense that had five first-round picks and is a no-brainer selection for Arizona here.
4. Indianapolis Colts – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Stroud had a great pro day and it further solidified his case as one of the two best QBs in this draft class. Dropping to four might be a surprise, even for him, but the Colts would be sprinting their card to the podium if things did turn out this way for them.
5. Seattle Seahawks – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Injury prevented Witherspoon from performing at the combine or pro-day which could hurt his stock but given what he’s put on tape at Penn State, I doubt he will fall too far. He’s one of the best corners in this class against the run and he’s just as good in coverage.
6. Detroit Lions – Calijah Kancey, DI, Pittsburgh
Despite being slightly undersized, I can see a team picking up Kancey this early because of his speed and potential to disrupt QB’s at the NFL level. He would make a great addition to this young Lions pass rushing group.
7. Las Vegas – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Built like a defensive end, runs like a power back and can throw the football 80 yards and make it look easy. Richardson’s athleticism and arm strength leave a lasting impression, as does the effortlessness with which he plays.
But what he has in ability, he lacks in experience, so his best landing spot at the next level will be to a team with a veteran quarterback who can man the reins for another year or two until he’s ready to take the next step. The Raiders have other needs more glaring than at QB but if the Florida man is still on the board I can see Josh McDaniels taking a shot on a high-end, project player.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Nolan Smith missed part of the 2022 season with a pectoral injury but he is an electric pass rusher when healthy. He’s also a freakish athlete — he ripped off a 4.39 40 at the combine (and was mad about running too slow!).
9. Chicago Bears – Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Skoronski is solid and consistent, which are two of the best things you can say about an offensive lineman.
10. Philadelphia Eagles – Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Brian Branch is special; he can play in the slot, near the line of scrimmage or deep center field. And if Nick Saban trusted him at Alabama, that’s all you need to know about his NFL prospects.
11. Tennessee Titans – Will Levis, QB,Kentucky
Questions remain about his ability to layer the ball to all three levels, as well as some inconsistencies when he rolls to his left.
With Ryan Tannehill entering the final year of his contract, this is an ideal position for the Titans to pick up the next best QB available, with a chance to have him learn behind an experienced NFL veteran.
12. Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Smith-Njigba, who barely saw the field during the 2022 season because of injuries, is still one of the top wideouts in the class. Before he shined at the Ohio St. Pro Day, it was easy to forget that JSN led the 2021 Buckeyes in receptions and that corps included first-rounders Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
13. Green Bay Packers – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Moving up a couple of places shouldn’t change the intent for the Packers. Kincaid is definitely a better pass catcher than he is a blocker but surrounding Jordan Love with that kind of talent is necessary for Green Bay whilst they learn to live with life after Rodgers.
14. New England Patriots – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
He has all the physical tools you look for in an elite edge defender and it’s easy to see him in a few years being dominant. Has all of the hallmarks of a Bill Belichick guy.
15. New York Jets – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Johnson had a solid career at Ohio State, where he played left tackle in ’22 and was the team’s right guard in ’21. That position flexibility could serve him well early in his career.
16. Washington Commanders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez, a Colorado transfer, is a big-time athlete who is still growing into the position. He has the size, strength and speed — he ran a 4.38 40 at the combine — to line up against NFL wide receivers; he just needs to improve in run support.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Broderick Jones, OT, Gerogia
Paris Johnson Jr. will be ready to start in the NFL sooner than Jones, but Jones’ upside is through the roof. Either way, the plan is to keep Kenny Pickett upright and allow him to build on the progress he made during the second half of the ’22 season.
18. Detroit Lions – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
With the recent six game suspension of Jameson Williams, Detroit now needs even more help in the passing game than they did at this time last week. Adding a tight end might have been a position that they had looked to fill on day two but all things considered, taking this year’s TE-2 is a savvy choice if he’s still available.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Wright capped off a dominant 2022 season after switching over to the right side with a strong Senior Bowl week and pre-draft process. Don’t be surprised if he makes his way into the middle of the first.
20. Seattle Seahawks – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
It might be wise to give Harrison time given his limited experience at the college level. He could step up quicker than expected and has the potential to become a top pass protector.
21. Los Angeles Chargers – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
If the Chargers are happy to let Austin Ekeler walk out of the door then addressing the running back position in the draft makes sense. We know how the league feels generally about drafting RB’s in round one but Robinson is a well-rounded player who is ready to go in the NFL.
22. Baltimore Ravens – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
He’s a fluid athlete who is also a big, physical corner who can match up with NFL wide receivers.
23. Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
He can sometimes get a little too handsy downfield, but he checks many of the boxes of what teams look for when drafting DBs and the Vikings are desperate for bodies at the position.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa State
At 6-5, 275, Van Ness certainly looks the part, and the expectation is that he can even put on 10-15 more pounds. He’s just scratching the surface on his abilities — he never started a game at Iowa — and while it’s generally a cliche in this case it’s also true: Van Ness’ best football is in front of him and he’s already a really good player.
25. New York Giants – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Addison isn’t a big target, but he’s one of the most dynamic players in the country who can line up anywhere.
26. Dallas Cowboys – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
I know, I know, “two runners in the first round” I hear you exclaim, but yes, here it is. Dallas might be able to pick up Gibbs on day two with their selection at 58 but they need a compliment to Tony Pollard and should give serious consideration to addressing that as soon as possible. Gibbs is arguably the most explosive running back in the draft. He averaged over 10 yards-per-catch and ran for 926 yards last season.
27. Buffalo Bills – Mazi Smith, DI, Michigan
Smith’s production at Michigan hasn’t quite lived up to athletic potential however, the Bills would be wise to add help on their defensive line and Smith’s potential upside is worth taking a chance on.
28. Cincinnati Bengals – Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
With sure hands, a massive catch radius, and surprisingly good speed, Washington will surely make the Bengals happy despite many thinking that a first round selection is too rich.
29. New Orleans Saints – O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Torrence was dominant for Florida last fall, he was dominant during Senior Bowl practices, he was dominant at his pro day, and if history is any guide, he’ll be dominant in the NFL too.
30. Philadelphia Eagles – Brian Bresee, DI, Clemson
Burly but athletic interior tackle who plays with a strong desire to get past the man in front of him. Bresee rarely gets caught up in long block engagements and possesses a deep anchor to battle double teams. Howie Roseman and the Eagles continue to ‘build from the trenches’.
31. Kansas City Chiefs – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Wilson slips all the way down to Kansas City, which would be a huge win for both parties. He’s long, has the frame to add weight if needed, and he’s a dominant, high-motor pass rusher who can take over games. The question marks surrounding his foot injury that kept him out late in 2022 are the main reason he falls so low here.
