NFL Playoffs Predictions: Wildcard Weekend

Welcome to Wildcard Weekend! The 2023 NFL Playoffs kickoff Saturday at 4:30 EST, and there’s a lot to unpack in these exciting upcoming matchups.

The 2022-23 season proved to all of us that it really is any given Sunday. The Jaguars prevailed in the AFC South, the Dolphins squeaked in after a very up-and-down regular season, the Buccaneers won the NFC South at 8-9, and Geno Smith did, in fact, write back.

Following this crazy regular season, multiple game-changing storylines are affecting a good handful of the remaining teams. The health of QBs Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa has been heavily in question and both are not confirming unfit to play, Dak Prescott’s league-leading 15 interceptions raises concern for the Cowboys, and several shaky defenses (Giants, Seahawks, Vikings) will be seriously put to the test.

With all these X-Factors in mind, let’s dive into each Wildcard matchup and determine who’s got the best chances to advance to the Divisional Round.

NFC: Seattle Seahawks (7) @ San Francisco 49ers (2)

(Sat. 1/14, 4:30 PM EST)

Regardless of how things play out for the Seahawks this weekend, it’s safe to say their season was much more successful than anyone would have thought going into 2022. After trading away their long-time franchise QB Russell Wilson, there was nothing but doubt cast on them with Geno Smith and Drew Lock as their new options.

After winning the starting job, Smith proved he was much more than what he showed for in his four years on the Jets. In his first year as the Seahawks’ starter, Smith saw career highs in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns, and was nominated for his first career pro bowl.

I say all this with a heavy heart, however, as following Seattle’s Cinderella story into the playoffs they must now go into San Francisco to take on arguably the hottest team in football.

With the doubt casted on QB Brock Purdy to fill the shoes of Jimmy Garoppolo in keeping the 49ers a top-level threat, he and the mind of Kyle Shanahan have done just that. Not only has San Francisco not lost since they were walloped by the Chiefs in week 8, but Purdy was the starter for their last six victories after Garoppolo went down against the Dolphins with a season-ending foot injury.

With the inspirational success he’s found so quickly, the 49ers’ offense should give a subpar Seattle defense plenty of trouble. It’s also no secret how stellar the 49ers’ defense has been, which has already held Seattle to 20 combined points in their two meetings during the regular season. It’s great to see you here Seattle, but it won’t happen this year.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 17, 49ers 31

AFC: Los Angeles Chargers (5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4)

(Sat. 1/14, 8:15 PM EST)

Much like the Seahawks, the Jaguars making their way to the playoffs is as big a surprise as any other. What’s even more surprising is their stunning status as AFC South champions after owning the number one pick in the draft last year.

In his first year as head coach, Doug Pederson was able to unlock strengths of Trevor Lawrence that Urban Meyer never could’ve. What’s interesting when looking at this matchup is that the Jags finished the regular season on a four-game win streak, and it’s worth noting that they beat the Chargers in convincing fashion in week 3.

The Chargers were unfortunately injury-ridden for a solid portion of the season, and still somewhat are following the regular season finale. Star WR Mike Williams hasn’t been practicing this week, and his absence would surely be felt by Justin Herbert. However, despite key injuries all year, the Chargers won four of their last five to close out the regular season.

With two outstanding campaigns under his belt but coming up short both times, Herbert has a point to prove in this upcoming game. I’m taking LA in what should be a contender for best game of Wildcard Weekend.

Score Prediction: Chargers 28, Jaguars 25

AFC: Miami Dolphins (7) @ Buffalo Bills (2)

(Sun. 1/15, 1:00 PM EST)

I was slightly surprised to learn the scheduling of this matchup, since going in the Bills and Dolphins tied their regular season meetings with two outstanding performances.

Now that Tua is officially ruled out, I’m glad it is what it is.

As things currently look with Teddy Bridgewater also seemingly unavailable, Miami is planning on going with 7th round rookie Skylar Thompson on Sunday. Thompson made his first career start in week 18, the game that (with help from the Bills) sneaked the Dolphins into the 7th seed in the AFC after what was a roller coaster of a season (won three, lost three, won five, lost five, won one).

On the season, the Bills are 7-1 at home. There aren’t many teams who are advantageous with cold weather conditions quite like the Bills are, so a playoff game in snowy Buffalo should work wonders in their favor. Josh Allen also had his way in both contests against Miami this year, averaging 352 passing yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.

Paired with the several (and I mean SEVERAL) other key injuries the Dolphins are currently dealing with, the path looks quite bright for the Bills to advance to their third straight divisional round.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Bills 35

NFC: New York Giants (6) @ Minnesota Vikings (3)

(Sun. 1/15, 4:30 PM EST)

In his first year as head coach, dealing with injured wide receivers just about all season, Brian Daboll has brought what was thought to be a mediocre Giants team with Daniel Jones in the hot seat to their first playoff appearance since 2016. In his first season playing every game (with the exception of week 18 to rest), Jones saw career highs in completion percentage, passing yards, and passer rating.

RB Saquon Barkley also had himself a year in Daboll’s new system, logging a career-high 1,312 rushing yards and 10 scores. What was most evident in games the Giants played was when everyone was playing well, they could give a lot of teams trouble. That was the case in their regular season meeting with the Vikings, which was brought down to the wire on the back of Barkley.

Unfortunately for the Giants, their defense had a hard time containing opposing offenses in the latter half of the season, so they’ll be pushed to their limits against Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson this weekend.

In their regular season meeting, Cousins logged 299 yards and three passing touchdowns, 133 of those yards and a score going to Jefferson. Finishing the year as the receiving leader and number one fantasy receiver, it’ll be hard for New York to contain as hot a receiver as Jefferson is. 

Score Prediction: Giants 21, Vikings 24

AFC: Baltimore Ravens (6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3)

(Sun. 1/15, 8:15 PM EST)

Joe Burrow and the Bengals seem to be in a better spot than they were at this point last season, as they’re clear AFC contenders after beating the Chiefs in the regular season and were off to a quick start against the Bills before the game was canceled in response to Damar Hamlin’s injury (click here for updates on Damar).

There are aspects to this game that are in their favor, as Lamar Jackson has confirmed he’s out Sunday. But there are also aspects that could affect Cincinnati as they go deeper into the playoffs. They’re now down two key offensive linemen after La’El Collins went down Christmas Eve and Alex Cappa was carted off the field in week 18.

Regardless of what things may look like for the Bengals down the road, this should be a relatively easy win with Jackson out. Without him, the Ravens averaged a measly 12.5 points per game, which isn’t nearly productive enough to go against a much improved Bengals defense.

Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 27

NFC: Dallas Cowboys (5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4)

(Mon. 1/16, 8:15 PM EST)

This matchup is loaded with rhetorical questions that make it a toss up. Will we see a vintage Brady performance? Will Dak Prescott continue to struggle with ball security? Can the Bucs contain the run? On paper this seems more like an uphill battle for the Bucs, who snuck into the playoffs at 8-9 to win the NFC South, but both squads have their respective issues that make this interesting.

While the Cooper Rush era seems forever ago, his play plus how their defense was playing made the Cowboys out to be a serious threat in the NFC. Don’t get me wrong, they definitely have the pieces and scheme to be, but with Prescott starting there’s always the fear of turnovers; which is a major problem to have in the playoffs. Dak threw two interceptions in five of the Cowboys’ last seven games. 

What’s looking up for them however is how inconsistent the Bucs offense has been. In their last 12 games, they’ve put up over 23 points only twice. It’s visible the transition from Bruce Arians to Todd Bowles has been difficult. Compared to last year, the team accumulated over 1,000 less yards of offense, and their third down percentage has plummeted from 47% to 37%.

There’s a lot of pressure here for both teams. Tom Brady is desperately trying to prove he still belongs on the field, and Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys are trying to fix their mistakes from last year’s Wildcard round. If you ask me, I would say if Dak can avoid turnovers the Cowboys defense will be too much for Tampa Bay’s flip-floppy offense.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 31

Enjoy the games this weekend!