NFL Week Two Betting Preview
(Credit: AP Photo/Mike Roemer)
Finally, the NFL is back in full force.
It was an outstanding opening weekend in the league, as we saw home favorites go 4-3 against the spread, while home underdogs went 5-4. Our biggest winners from Week One were the Steelers, Seahawks, Bears, and Giants who all won outright after being heavy underdogs going into their respective matchups.
With opening weekend in the books, here are some of the storylines that emerged right after. The Chiefs and Bills are once again on a collision course to face each other in the playoffs after their demolitions of the NFC West.
The Justin’s (Herbert & Jefferson) are about to take the league by storm. A Giant defeated a Titan. Tom Brady. Jameis Winston ate a W. Baker May-lose-by-a-field goal to his former team. The Jaguars are on pace for the #1 pick for a third straight season. The Cowboys formed an alliance with Notre Dame and decided to end their season early too. Soldier Field defeated the 49ers. “I STILL OWN YOU”, said the Dolphins to Bill Belichick.
Pittsburgh picked, blocked, and kicked their way to victory. They say death comes in three’s and so do L’s for Russell Wilson who carries three of them in his name. #3 couldn’t lead his team to a three-point field goal with three timeouts remaining, snapping his streak of three-straight Week 1 victories.
The Ravens beat the Jets by only 15 points, which is basically a loss since the Jets lost by an average of 16 points per game last season. The Colts didn’t lose to the Texans, but they didn’t beat them either.
Now, take a deep breath…
Let’s see what Week Two betting has in store for us:
Thursday Night Football – Chargers @ Chiefs – 8.15pm ET
What a way to kick off Thursday Night Football. These teams are so evenly matched that the margin of victory has been between 3-6 points in each of the three games that Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert have squared off against one another.
Two of the games were decided in OT with Kansas City winning both. Keenan Allen may be missing from Los Angeles, but if Vegas is giving us a field goal in a game that they can win, it only makes sense to roll with them.
Kansas City Cheat Codes
- Patrick Mahomes has started 2-0 in three of his four seasons
- Mahomes is 3-1 in Thursday Night Football games (1-1 record vs. LAC)
- Mahomes is averaging 33.6 rushing yards vs. LAC, going over 30-yards in four of his seven matchups (three times over 40-yards)
- Over the past three seasons, Travis Kelce is averaging 100 receiving yards vs. LAC, scoring a TD in three of the five games
Los Angeles Locks
- Justin Herbert is 2-0 in his career at Arrowhead Stadium (2-2 vs. KC overall)
- Herbert is averaging 282.5 passing yards and 2.5 TDs in 4 games vs. KC
- Herbert has rushed for a TD in three of his four games vs. KC
Pick: Chargers (+4)
Sunday – Patriots @ Steelers – 1pm ET
While Kansas City and Los Angeles may be the favorite for game of the week this week, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati was surely just that in Week 1. Pittsburgh did all they could to blow the game, but Minkah Fitzpatrick blocked Cincinnati from stealing a win.
New England lost a Week 1 matchup to Miami in now back-to-back seasons, leveling them up with the Jets at the bottom of the AFC East, which is not a sight Patriot fans want to get used to. With the absence of last year’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year, TJ Watt, and a banged-up Najee Harris, expect New England to secure their first win of the new season.
New England Knows Best
- Bill Belichick is 8-3 all-time vs. Mike Tomlin (including playoffs)
- Patriots have won six of the last seven meetings (including playoffs)
- Patriots haven’t started a season 0-2 since 2001
- Mac Jones led the Patriots to a 6-3 record on the road last season (including playoffs)
Trust in Tomlin
- Steelers are 8-1 against the spread as a home underdog over the past five seasons
- Steelers are 13-3-1 at home over the last two seasons
Pick: Patriots (-1.5)
Buccaneers @ Saints – 1pm ET
For some reason Tom Brady seems to find one team in his division that he can’t intimidate. Back in New England it was Miami, and now with Tampa Bay it’s New Orleans. Could it be that both cities are notorious for their late-night shenanigans and the fact that Brady is close friends with former teammate, Rob Gronkowski.
Who knows, but I expect Tampa Bay to come out on top in this one for no reason other than I can’t see Brady losing to New Orleans for the fifth time in a row in the regular season.
New Orleans Never Loses
- Saints are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings vs. TB
- Saints have swept the season series three straight years
- Minus a 35-point drubbing in 2020, the Saints have beat the Bucs by an average of 9.6 points over the past two seasons
- Tom Brady is 0-4 vs. NO in regular season as a Buc, averaging 2 interceptions per game
- Alvin Kamara has rushed for a TD in three of their last four meetings
- Julio Jones hasn’t caught a TD vs. NO since Week 17 in 2016
Tampa Bay Bucks
- Saints were 1-3 against the spread as a home underdog last season
- Saints haven’t started a season at 2-0 since 2013
Pick: Bucs (-3)
Dolphins @ Ravens – 1pm ET
Miami continued their home dominance over New England, improving Tua Tagovailoa’s record to 4-0 against his division rival. Dynamic WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle hauled in a combined 12 catches for 163 yards and 1 TD while their defense caused two fumbles, returning one for a TD, and picked off Mac Jones in the endzone.
Baltimore on the other hand had the advantage of receiving a straight forward Week One against the Jets and coasting to a 24-9 win. If this game was being played in Miami it might be closer, but it’s not and that Baltimore crowd is going to make a ton of noise getting to see their team play at home for the first time in eight months.
Bet With Baltimore
- Ravens are 12-2 in home openers under Harbaugh, winning their last six in a row
- Ravens are 20-5 at home with Lamar Jackson as their starting QB
- John Harbaugh is 8-2 all-time vs. MIA (including playoffs)
- Dolphins haven’t won a game in BAL since 1997
- Tua Tagovailoa threw one interception per game on the road last season
Pick: Ravens (-3.5)
Cardinals @ Raiders – 4.25pm ET
Maybe Arizona should’ve kept those four hours of film studying in Kyler Murray’s contract as they were blown out at home by 23-points to Kansas City. Derek Carr didn’t look much better for Las Vegas, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns last week. As bad as Arizona looked, I wouldn’t go as far to bet Las Vegas to beat them by five+ points when eight of Arizona’s 11 wins came on the road last season.
Arizona’s Appetite for Wins
- Cardinals were 6-1 against the spread as a road underdog last season
- Cardinals were 8-1 on the road last season, winning by an average margin of 14 points per game
- Raiders had only one win by more than 6 points at home last season (11 points vs. PHI)
- Raiders were 1-3 against the spread as a home favorite last season
- Derek Carr is 2-6 in his career against NFC West opponents (1-1 vs. AZ)
Las Vegas Lineup
- Raiders are 2-0 in home openers in Allegiant Stadium
- Six of Josh Jacobs’ nine TDs were rushed at home last season
- Either Hunter Renfrow or Josh Jacobs scored a TD in eight of the Raiders’ nine home games last season (Darren Waller caught one TD in Week 1)
- Raiders played in three OT home games last season, going 3-0
Pick: Cardinals (+5.5)
Bears @ Packers – 8.20pm ET
There isn’t much to breakdown between these two teams. Aaron Rodgers still mans the quarterback position for Green Bay and that’s all we need to know. Could Chicago turn the tables now that they hold a one game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North? No.
Over the past two seasons, Aaron Rodgers and Co. are 6-0 coming off a loss, winning by an average of 15 points per game, which is the same average number of points that Green Bay has beaten Chicago by in each of the last two seasons. Let’s not get cute here and just take our money and end Sunday on a high note.
Rodgers’ Property
- Aaron Rodgers is 13-1 all-time in home openers (2-0 vs. CHI)
- He’s 12-2 all-time at home vs. CHI (last loss in 2015)
- He’s 24-5 all-time vs. CHI (including playoffs)
- He’s thrown for 4 TDs in three of the last five home meetings vs. CHI
Pick: Packers (-10)
Monday Night Football – Titans @ Bills – 7.15pm ET
That’s how the pre-season Super Bowl favorite kicks off a season. You go into the defending champions house and rob them of any false sense of belief that they can go back-to-back. The same can’t be said for Tennessee as they continue to give New York teams their first win of the season, having done the same thing last year against the Jets.
Tennessee started off last season with a bad home loss (38-13 defeat vs. AZ) but recovered the following week, beating the Seahawks in Seattle. If Buffalo’s offense gets going early it’s going to be a long night for Tennessee, but if they can get their run game going with Derrick Henry and control the clock, they can make it a game.
Buffalo’s Best Bets
- Ryan Tannehill is 0-5 in his career at BUF
- Titans have never started 0-2 under head coach Mike Vrabel (last season was 2012)
- Five of Gabriel Davis’ six TDs were hauled in at home last season
- Bills are 13-4 at home over the past two seasons
Tennessee’s Talking Points
- Josh Allen is 0-2 in his career in home Monday Night Football games
- Allen has thrown at least one interception in each of his four meetings vs. TEN
- Derrick Henry has rushed for six TDs in his last three meetings vs. BUF
- Titans played in 3 OT road games last season, going 2-1
- There’s been a QB rushing TD in three of the last four matchups (Tannehill has two)
Pick: Titans (+10)
Vikings @ Eagles – 8.30pm ET
This should be a fun one. Minnesota’s star wideout, Justin Jefferson, just reeled in nine catches for 184 yards and 2 TDs last week against Green Bay. Philadelphia’s new star wideout, A.J. Brown, also had a monster game, catching 10 passes for 155 yards versus America’s darlings in Detroit. Each team is 1-0, but neither of them has started a season 2-0 since 2016.
If Minnesota can contain Jalen Hurts’ legs this game should be a cakewalk for them, but they’ve been a tough team to trust over recent years. Maybe they can finally put Aaron Rodgers in the rearview and take control of the NFC North.
Minnesota is So Money
- Eagles are 2-7-1 at home over the past two seasons against non-divisional opponents
- Kirk Cousins is 6-3 all-time vs. PHI (3-2 at PHI)
- In the eight road games Cousins started last season, each game was decided by 4.8 points, with three games going to OT (MIN was 1-2)
- Seven of Adam Thielen’s 10 TDs were snagged on the road last season
Philly’s Finest
- Eagles are 4-1 in their last 5 home Monday Night Football games
- Cousins has never started a season 2-0 in his NFL career
- Jalen Hurts rushed for a TD in four of the seven home games he started in last season (rushed for multiple TDs in three of those games)
Pick: Vikings (+2.5)
