Nick Jones’ NFL franchise chances for 2022
If there is one thing I love about the NFL, it’s that the nature of success is somewhat cyclical. Sure, there are teams who have yet to secure the Lombardi Trophy for their first time, there are others who have dominated periods of the sport’s history but the way that the league, the draft and the luck of the sport works means that in any given year a team’s chances can fluctuate wildly. Just look at the Cincinnati Bengals as an example:
- 2019, 2-14, worst team in the entire league.
- 2020, 4-11-1, worst team in the division.
- 2021, 10-7 , first in the division and a playoff run that saw them take it to the wire in the Superbowl.
There is nothing like this in other sports that I follow. So I thought I’d take a punt at seeing where the rosters lie for the 2022 season, breaking down between the following categories:
Win-now: The side is ready to go, there is depth and quality and/or enough recent success to suggest that they could go all the way.
Next year: The outsiders for the Lombardi. The side is almost there but is lacking a finishing edge that could be honed throughout the season or, perhaps just need to take it into 2023.
Nearly there: They could be there or there abouts, but the gaps are bigger.
On the wane: The side is most likely on the downslide.
Rebuild :In a clear state of transition, there are some elements there that could work but key components are missing.
Broken: Something deeper is afoot and there are problems that are going to keep them there for a little while yet.
Dark Horses: These guys could surprise us this year. Maybe they’re not going all the way but there is something that could be special here.
Win-now
Buffalo Bills
An easy starter for ten. Too much quality on both sides of the ball to dismiss as anything other than Super Bowl contenders. If they stay injury free, an AFC Championship game is the absolute minimum that this roster should be expecting this season. Adding Vonn Miller to an already dangerous defense is going to pay dividends and Josh Allen looks bigger and stronger than ever.
Upsides: Elite QB, high quality wideout talent, effective O-line, talent added to the D, stable coaching outfit with Sean McDermott is going into his sixth season as Head.
Missing links: Not much but the RB room could stand to be a touch stronger. The addition of James Cook may help bolster this.
Los Angeles Rams
They’re the Super Bowl champions. They should be aiming to be two-timers. It’s a rare feat but the ‘f*** the picks’ attitude means that’s where the Rams need to be going for. In five years’ time this side could be in some seriously dark places, so let the good times roll.
Upsides: One of the greatest defensive players to ever play the game with a supporting cast of high level skill, proven upgrade at QB, one of the best wide receivers in the league, young coach considered to be one of the best in the league.
Missing links: When you’re number one there is only one way to go. Can an aging Bobby Wagner add something to the side? Is the fire still there to go back-to-back?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It has to be win-now for the Brady bunch because the 45-year-old isn’t going to be there forever, and the O-Line is aging fast. It’s win or bust for Tampa in 2022.
Upsides: The GOAT, Elite WR corp, not having to deal with Antonio Brown’s BS this year.
Missing links: Age / depth is not on the side of the team; they lost starting Center Ryan Jensen to a likely season long injury which perhaps shows some fragility in the O-line which was elite tier last year – Alex Kappa has also left to join the Bengals and Ali Marpet has retired during the off-season. One of these days Brady will not be Brady and then what? Fournette got into the cake cupboard over off-season.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been absolute fire for four seasons since Patrick Mahomes became the man under centre. But this could be the last season Mahomes has to strike his name into the history books as a Lombardi winner with a Chiefs side that is lacking Tyreek Hill and is a year older.
Upsides: The Baby GOAT, Andy Reid is probably one of the finest coaching minds in the league, Travis Kelce absolutely destroying it at Tight End.
Missing links: Still lacking an elite RB room. Reduced talent at WR.
Next Year
Green Bay Packers
Losing Davante Adams at wideout and having to rely on Allen Lazard to fill his shoes could bring the average fan out into a cold sweat but the Packers have been bringing the heat for years now, surely one man can’t make all that difference?
My take on this is? Yes, he really does. Develop your squad this season, make the best of what you’ve got and find your guy in free agency next season and SPEND. The Packers are hellishly close to being a Super bowl capable side but the Adams sized hole that needs filling is enormous.
Upsides: Back-to-back League MVP quarterbacking your play, exceptional young Head Coach, half the people you play this season are going to have to do in in Wisconsin at Lambeau.
Missing Links: WRs. End of.
Los Angeles Chargers
When I looked at this roster there is quality at almost every position. The WR corp is exceptional, Justin Herbert is the real deal, the D is scary (especially if Derwin James can stay fit again this season). But Chargers gonna Charger. Perennial nearly men who seem to make things unnecessarily difficult for themselves.
Upsides: You landed a franchise QB, you have a true RB1, Allen and Williams are in the running to be the best WR duo in the league, Joey Bosa, Kalil Mack and JC Jackson will boss it on the other side of the ball.
Missing Links: Consistency. Chargers gonna find a way to Charger themselves out of this one. Jokes aside, they also play in an ULTRA competitive division, those games lost in-division this season are going to make things tough in the playoff race.
Baltimore Ravens
When fit the defensive side of the Ravens is exceptional. They cause so many problems for the opposition and some are shouting out Kyle Hamilton as being one of the best value draft pick-ups in 2022.
Former MVP Lamar Jackson is a slippery customer in a run-heavy offence but the almost total lack of top tier talent at receiver (Mark Andrews aside) is very concerning for the faithful at M&T Bank Stadium. Much like the Packers, do the best with what you have this season and come at it full force in 2023 with a marquee WR signing.
Upsides: Franchise QB, top level Head Coach, great rotation of RBs, lights out D.
Missing Links: Who is Lamar going to throw to when Mark Andrews is double covered?
Nearly There
Indianapolis Colts
Part of me is really high on the Colts. Their defense is solid if not spectacular but has a couple of household names (the recently renamed Shaq Leonard amongst them at linebacker) and the O-Line ranks in PFFs top 10. They have enough weapons to scare most teams, a superstar RB in JT and above average talent in Michael Pittman Jr and Matt Ryan providing a safe pair of hands. I fancy them to make a play-off run and if they can stay fit and healthy could have a legitimate shout. Just a lot of ifs and buts there, is all.
Upsides: Jonathan Taylor.
Missing Links: No talent at TE and lacking depth at receiver.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is so important to this side. The guy was running white hot through the first half of last season but the Cliff Kingsbury offense took on water as the year wore on.
Signing the diminutive QB to an extension was a smart move but you’ve got to surround him with talent or he won’t be able to utilise those talents. He forced the signing of Hollywood Brown which gives him more outs but losing Hopkins to a PED violation for 6 weeks will hurt especially when they open up against the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams.
Upsides: Top tier QB, Nuke Hopkins.
Missing Links: 6 games without your best WR and relying on JJ Watt to lead the D agian.
Cincinnati Bengals
Nobody expected to see the Bengals in the Super Bowl last year. Literally. Nobody. Not many expect them to do it again. But they’ve made efforts to shore up the O-Line, Joe Burrow is one year more mature and JaMarr Chase has jumped out of the blocks from LSU to become a superstar.
That said, they’re now on everyone’s radar. They’ve got some tough in-division competition against a sprightly Ravens who might actually field a fit squad this season, a Steelers team with nothing to lose and a Browns team with everything to prove. I can’t quite see them repeating the success of 2021 but they’ll be there or there abouts come January.
Upsides: Best QB / WR duo out there.
Missing Links: Relying on Eli Apple as one of their starting corners again all season, it could be leaky.
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy is dead, long live Trey. Shanahan has decreed it so. The 49ers really are a team that, on their day, will rumble with the best of them. Bosa, Warner, Armstead can all turn out game changing performances on the D.
Getting Deebo locked in was important. Kittle can still handle himself both in blocking and pass catching realms and Aiyuk gives the receiver room additional talent. The schedule strength that the team are looking to turn over could make a Playoff bid challenging but not impossible.
Upsides: The starting QB question has been answered, Deebo is a train from the backfield and upfield.
Missing Links: Is the starting QB good enough?
Denver Broncos
Want to make the offseason exciting? Get one of the richest men in the world to take over your franchise and sign a potential future hall of famer as your new quarterback. The Broncos gave up a lot of material to make the Wilson trade happen but if the contract extension is anything to go by, they seem damned happy about it.
Pair Russ with Jeudy and Sutton, alongside Javonte Williams in the backfield, and you’ve got a fearsome passing attack. My worry with the Broncos comes in the secondary. A lack of depth and talent outside of a couple of starters could prove costly.
Upsides: It’s time to let Russ cook.
Missing Links: Injuries to the D could be costly this season with expectations so high.
On The Wane
Tennessee Titans
This might seems harsh given the Titans making the Playoff berth as the AFC one seed in 2021 but nothing about their off season has given me hope that they’ve moved in the right direction. Tannehill is fine as a QB but that’s it. He’s fine. Giving up AJ Brown to the Eagles was a funky move whilst seeing Julio Jones leave probably wasn’t the worst thing. Treylon Burks hasn’t been super impressive during camp unlike some of his rookie contemporaries.
The benefit from being in a weak division which, if the Colts don’t turn up in, could really help their record and chase for successive post-season experiences.
Upsides: Mike Vrabel. A mountain of a man, a disciple of Belichick and a coaching visionary.
Missing links: Losing a top 5 WR and replacing him with absolutely nobody.
New Orleans Saints
I’m already reflecting on placing the Saints in this category and think I’m probably wrong. They’re better than this. The addition of Tyrann Mathieu to an already talent heavy D cannot have hurt and seeing Michael Thomas (FINALLY) nearing fitness whilst picking up Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry has meant that Jameis has no excuses now.
But the same could have been said when he had some of his worst seasons as a Buc only for Brady to come in an show him how it was done. It’s all on Winston. Before damaging his ACL last year it looked like he’d found his groove. I hope for his sake he can do it again. If not, they’ll need to either trade in or start over with a Rookie next year.
Upsides: Lightsout D, fresh receiver talent.
Missing links: A Saints team without Sean Payton is still a Saints team without Sean Payton. Is Michael Thomas going to be the old Michael Thomas?
Minnesota Vikings
I think I could have put this team in here almost every year for the past three seasons. They never seem to get any worse though. Equally they don’t seem to get much better. Justin Jefferson has got absolute gas and is superstar talent but outside of him, an aging Adam Thielen and a young Irv Smith don’t give you too many options.
A weak O-Line (ranked bottom 5 by PFF) may hurt Cousins to extend plays which could help the team stretch the field.
Upsides: Very strong RB room with a good back up in Mattison. Justin Jefferson is fire. Fresh coaching strategy (hopefully).
Missing Links: Another year with Kirk under centre from a fantastically solid but uninspiring signal caller.
Dallas Cowboys
As the off season progressed I felt like the Cowboys already want to skip into 2023. Jerry Jones is making too much noise about Zeke again. I understand that the owner will never want to downplay his stars but Pollard looked damned effective in the back end of last season so I can’t see why they wouldn’t try and drive some more snaps his way.
Dak Prescott looks like the old Dak, which is great but who is he throwing to? Ceedee Lamb is a great option but having to trade away Amari Cooper for what could have effectively been counted in shirt buttons was an awful move. Further that with Tyron Smith’s injury and replacing him with a 40 year old and I really don’t like the chances at Dallas.
Upsides: Top ten QB, deep running room, Micah Parsons.
Missing Links: Jerry Jones. Just let someone else do the talking… and negotiating.
Rebuilding
Pittsburgh Steelers
For anyone who has caught my articles before for offGrid, I am a Steeler. I am therefore, unfortunately, going to spend the next few years probably not watching them after December. Kevin Colbert worked wonders bringing elite WRs (usually 2nd and 3rd rounders) into the organisation over his tenure and his last job was to pick a new QB from the limited rookie list from the 2022 Draft.
I’ve gotta say, I think he did alright! Give him time to develop under Mitch, and work on finding some guys to protect him properly and maybe the Steelers could be back faster than I think.
Upsides: Super stable and ultra-competent front office. Probably one of the best (and youngest) groups of receivers and running backs in the league.
Missing links: We won’t know if Kenny Pickett is the real deal for a year or so.
Seattle Seahawks
You know it’s a rebuild when you’re tossing up your starter position between Drew Lock and Geno Smith. Smith won the starters job but how much further can a 70+ year old Pete Carroll take this side? Sure Rashaad Penny finished last season absolutely smoking hot and in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are still amongst the best WR duo in the league but without the man under center to unlock that talent, what is this other than a rebuild year?
Upsides: WRs.
Missing Links: Almost everywhere else. Chop the coach and start over properly.
New York Jets
Zach Wilson has the potential though his 2022 hasn’t started the best with his knock in preseason (I thought it was a bit of a late hit for what it’s worth) so with Joe Flacco starting Week One it’s likely we aren’t going to see a team that’s pushing for the post season. The one thing that the Jets did do in the Draft was pick up some very exciting talent on both sides of the ball.
‘Sauce’ Gardner and Jared Johnson look fun and Garett Wilson could be the partner that Elijah Moore needs to give him such much needed space. It’s going to be another tough year but hold the faith Jets fans, good times are on their way. Probably.
Upsides: Youth!
Missing Links: Experience!
New England Patriots
If it wasn’t for Mac Jones and big Bill’s record I’d have these guys lower in my estimations. Jones had a superb debut season in a tough spot but the calls that the Pats have made in respect of the rebuild have got a lot of people scratching their heads.
They’ve got to play the Bills and Dolphins in division which is not going to be easy and they maintain a couple of elite names at CB and S (see: McCourtney, Phillips and Dugger) but on the offensive side of the ball, I’m more than worried. Another year of running back by committee maybe a year of receiver by committee?! Let’s see 2022 through and come back stronger next year, guys.
Upsides: Bill Belichick. Strong secondary.
Missing Links: Maybe it’s time that Bill hung up the whistle and chilled out?
Atlanta Falcons
This team isn’t in the best position. But I have faith that Atlanta are getting ready to rise again. Almost certainly one of the worst rosters in the league despite early picks in the past two seasons. A lot of work needs to go into the Georgia outfit before they’re ready to compete again.
I’d love to see Marcus Mariota have a rebound season but it doesn’t really feel like it’s gonna happen.
Upsides: The warm Georgia weather, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Missing Links: Yeeeeesh, where to start.
Broken
New York Giants
The Giants have the potential to be a bit spicy. If Barkley can stay fit, awesome. If Daniel Jones can avoid getting concussed, fantastic. But the receiver room is lacking, and both lines could do with a revamp. The Giants have been one of the worst teams in the last five years or so and I don’t see that changing. They also saw their first round pick carted off during preseason.
Upsides: Barkley.
Missing links: A front office who are able to link the missing parts of the current squad, the needs of the future and what is available out there today.
Houston Texans
So your QB gets suspended for a year and you trade him away to an out of division team for a shedload of material. Well done. Annoyingly, your rookie QB outplays his likely upside and forces you to think about building a team around him.
They just don’t seem to ever improve much beyond ‘watchable’ and it’s damned frustrating. Prove me wrong Texans. Prove me wrong.
Upsides: Dameon Pierce looks like a really good pick up! Weaker strength of schedule.
Missing Links: Elite QB, wide out talent.
Cleveland Browns
I was weirdly happy when I watched Baker Mayfield beat the Steelers in the Playoffs a couple of years back. It really looked like the NFLs perennial modern era also rans had really found something to hold tight to but fast forward 18 months and what I can only describe as an embarrassment has embroiled the Ohio outfit.
Trading away the crown jewels of picks to hire Deshaun Watson, now suspended for sexual misconduct. I hope that it works out for the fans but I can’t help but feel that Cleveland really know how to point their pistol at their toes sometimes.
Upsides: Still (currently) got just about the best one-two punch at running back, Watson is actually pretty awesome when you get past the nefarious behaviour.
Missing links: The dignity of the organisation.
Washington Commanders
Where do you start with this shipwreck? Might as well start at the top. Dan Snyder needs pushing down some stairs (I don’t suggest you actually do that, it’s really dangerous).
The Colts did a fantastic job offloading a seemingly washed up QB on a heavy contract the Commanders did a great job of signing up to the other side of that deal. It’s not all doom and gloom, Scary Terry McLaurin is great and (when they’re fit) Montez Sweat and Chase Young are an absolutely fantastic duo at the line but there is a LOT of work to do to make the capital’s team a force to be reckoned with in the future.
Upsides: Terry McLaurin can catch footballs.
Missing links: There are more holes than filled space at this stage.
Chicago Bears
They’ve been a mess for years now. One of the most prestigious outfits in the league cannot get anything right. Trubisky turned into a dumpster fire of a player but you have to wonder how someone who starts so strongly ends up getting so much worse before leaving, enjoying a year at back-up, having his professionalism praised and then watching him move to a Steelers organisation that has almost never allocated the captain position to a first-year player.
Was it Mitch’s fault or is the problem deeper rooted in the windy city? Trading away Kalil Mack and Allen Robinson in the offseason means I smell more bins on fire in the future.
Upsides: Justin Fields might be good. You no longer have Matt Nagy in the building.
Missing links: Someone seems to have a flamethrower and a refuse bag on hand at all times in Chicago.
Carolina Panthers
You’ve got the number one and number three 2018 Draft picks on your roster at QB. That’s amazing, right? Probably not since neither of their original organisations wanted to keep hold of them.
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I fear that Matt Rhule’s ass is already warming up on his hot seat and I just can’t see how it’s going to get much better any quicker. I think Baker was done dirty by Cleveland and I would LOVE to see him completely stick it to them in Week One but I don’t see it happening.
Upsides: 2018 QB1 and 2018 QB2.
Missing links: A true starting QB amongst other things.
Dark Horses
Philadelphia Eagles
When I first started writing this article a few weeks ago the Eagles hadn’t quite become the darlings of the NFC. Since then they’re everyone’s favourite outside bet. But I’m leaving them here. They’re loaded on offence.
They’ve got the best O-Line in the league and Jalen Hurts looked (at times) the real deal last season even if they hadn’t planned to throw him on so early in the season. I really do feel like they’ve got the chance to do the sneaky on the league.
Upsides: Brutalising O-Line, excellent RB rotational room (inc QB), epic receiver corp.
Missing links: Could we be fooled by the Eagles given their weak in-division games just to watch them get destroyed by bigger boys later down the line.
Detroit Lions
I have totally been taken in by Hard Knocks. Dan Campbell and the Lions will have my support outside of the AFC North this year. I love an underdog and they don’t come much more doggy than this.
There is some absolutely legitimate talent here that could make a difference. Their O-Line is superb, Jared Goff has been getting superb write-ups in the preseason and Swift, St Brown and Hockenson are all absolutely NFL level skill players.
Upsides: Grit. Rodrigo.
Missing links: I might be totally blindsided by the TV show.
Las Vegas Raiders
What do you add to a franchise with an above average QB, an above average RB, an above average slot receiver and some reasonable talent on D? The best wideout in the league. It cost a lot and it’s a gamble but you’re in Vegas. What else is there to do? I’d love to see the Raiders go deep this season and Davante Adams might just have been enough to get there. Maybe. Just.
Upsides: The best wideout in the league. Solid above average talent in lots of other positions.
Missing links: A problematic O-line, overreliance on the new boy.
Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Xavien Howard. Rarely a more talented trios of players trying to get their hands of the ball have there been in Florida. Sure there are questions at QB, a lack of running talent and some questions of depth.
On the plus side, Terron Armstead looks fit and ready to protect his man which, given that Tua isn’t the most nimble, should help. I just hope his arm can keep up with The Cheetah’s legs. There are shouts that Gesieki will be looking for a new team this year because he just doesn’t fit into the new coaching strategy brought by the fresh change in coach which would be a shame because he’s a talented pass catcher.
Though, what do you need him for when you’ve got the other two guys mentioned?
Upsides: Unreal wideout talent.
Missing link: Still so many questions over Tua.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Forever have the Jags disappointed me but maybe, just maybe they can do something a bit special this year. Like not take the first overall pick again. T-Law is getting rave reviews and doesn’t have to deal with the Urban Meyer clown show this season so who knows.
I’d love to see the UKs adopted team really have a run at things for once. If only because it might mean we have a team turn up here with a winning record for once.
Upsides: Bye bye Urban. Trevor Lawrence is clearly exuding Samson-like qualities through his flowing locks.
Missing links: Jags gonna Jag.
