Previewing the NFC South in 2023
In what is shaping up to be one of the league’s weakest divisions, which team will emerge and take control of the NFC South clinching a playoff berth in what promises to be an exciting season ahead?
Last year, we saw the NFC South be one of the league’s weakest divisions in the NFL, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning it with an 8-9 record, the only division in the league where the division winners finished under 500. All 4 teams in the division had the opportunity to win the division with the Falcons, Panthers and Saints all finishing 7-10 just a game behind Tampa Bay.
The division has seen a lot of change this offseason, all four teams are expected to have different starters to those that began week one of the 2022 season. Tom Brady finally called time on his incredible career leaving the Bucs in a precarious position with Baker Mayfield expected to start. The Saints probably have the most established starter in the league as they brought in former LV Raider Derek Carr to lead them.
Atlanta have put their faith in 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder and despite having some impressive skill position players the QB position may let the Falcons down. It was the Panthers’ who saw the biggest change this offseason, as they agreed to a blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears which saw them jump to first overall in the draft standings and select Alabama star, Bryce Young.
With all that being said, this is a wide-open division the Saints are the understandable favourites with the most stability at the QB position. However, Atlanta and Carolina have the potential to host a playoff game next year, as for Tampa Bay they will most likely be in the Caleb Williams sweepstake.
New Orleans Saints
2022 record: 7-10
The New Orleans Saints are an interesting prospect this upcoming season, a solid defence coupled with talented skill position players leave NO in a solid position to stake their claim for NFC South glory, however, questions over the quarterback and head coach mean it is far from guaranteed the Saints will be victorious in the NFC South.
After the surprise departure of Sean Payton two seasons ago which left the Saints in limbo, the team’s brass decided to promote long-time defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and install him as the team’s head coach. Allen had a spell as Head Coach of the then-Oakland Raiders between 2012 and 2014 where he struggled compiling an 8-28 record.
Questions have already been levelled at Allen for some of his decision-making, and with the NFC South open to all four teams the Saints may be left to rue Allen later in the season. Questions have also been directed at new quarterback Derek Carr and how far he can take the team. The 2014 second-round pick has never won a playoff game in his NFL career leaving many to question how far he can take a team.
Despite having Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs in his offence last year, the Raiders won just 6 games and Carr was benched for the final two weeks of the season.
If the Saints are to make any noise this season it will be built on the foundation of a strong defence which is once again expected to be a strong unit despite losing some starters on the defensive line, with the offence complementing, the 3-game suspension handed to Alvin Kamara will potentially hinder the team early in the season and much depends on the health of former all-pro Michael Thomas.
New Orleans is understandably the betting favourite to win the division however, if Carr struggles in close games as he did a season ago the Saints may once again find themselves missing the postseason.
Carolina Panthers
2022 record: 7-10
The fact the Carolina Panthers won 7 games last season is nothing short of a minor miracle. After the inept Matt Rhule was relieved of his duties following a 1-4 start, Steve Wilks was elevated to the interim head coach position and turned the team around.
Despite Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and PJ Walker starting at QB and a midseason trade which sent Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco had it not been for the Panthers’ secondary being decimated with injuries in the week 17 matchup in Tampa Bay, Carolina may well have been a playoff team.
However, not making the playoffs may have worked in Carolina’s favour. New Head Coach Frank Reich has built an all-star staff and the blockbuster trade to move up in the draft to select Bryce Young may have Carolina in a prime position to dominate the NFC South for the next few seasons. A lot will depend on how former Heisman Trophy winner Young adapts to the NFL.
After an illustrious career at Alabama under the legendary Nick Saban, Young once again finds himself in Carolina as the team looks to find its first franchise QB since former MVP Cam Newton. It’s not just the addition of Young that has fans excited, new addition DJ Chark has already formed a solid relationship with Young through training camp.
On the defensive side of the ball, the addition of veteran Justin Houston to start opposite Brian Burns finally gives the team an edge rushing tandem to worry about offensive line coaching. Much will depend on how rookie Young adapts to the big leagues, and if his slight frame can hold up, if both of those things come to fruition don’t be surprised to see the Panthers atop the NFC South come January.
Atlanta Falcons
2022 record: 7-10
Rounding out the third and final 7-10 teams we have the Atlanta Falcons who are one of the league’s bigger unknowns heading into 2023. As a Panthers fan, this Atlanta team reminds me a lot of Panthers’ teams over the past 5 years, immense talent at the skill positions but no clear future at the QB spot.
Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts form a potentially deadly offensive trio and with an even average quarterback could win you upwards of 9 games, but head coach Arthur Smith has thrown his backing behind second-year man Desmond Ridder. If the videos coming out of Falcons training camp are any indication, it may be a chastising year for the former Cincinnati Bearcat.
With Taylor Heinickie waiting in the wings as the Falcons back up the pressure is on for Ridder to deliver early, or Smith might be tempted to switch to the player who enjoyed success during his time with the Washington Football Team. The Atlanta offence will be built on a strong running game which we saw in Atlanta a season ago.
Bijan Robinson is one of the best running back prospects in recent memory along with 2022 5th round pick Tyler Allgeier who rushed for 1035 yards in his rookie season and the Swiss army knife Corderalle Paterson the Falcons will hope to do damage on the ground.
The Falcons also made some impressive moves defensively with big splash signings of Safety Jessie Bates III and Defensive Tackle David Onyemata giving Atlanta options on the defensive side of the ball, with the weakness of the NFC South it’s perfectly feasible for the Falcons to be in contention but subpar QB play may leaving them struggling later in the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 record: 8-9
After limping to an NFC South title in 2022, the 2023 season is looking seriously bleak down at Raymond James Stadium, the retirement of Tom Brady left big questions at quarterback and what followed is probably one of the worst QB1 battles we’ve seen between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.
Mayfield is desperately trying to revive his career after a stop in Carolina where the former 1st overall pick compiled just a 1-5 record before being released to join Sean McVay and the LA Rams, many are predicting Tampa to be one of the league’s worst teams which could see them in prime position in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes in next year’s draft.
While the Bucs still have a dynamic WR pairing in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin the Bucs did not add much in free agency with running back Chase Edmunds the most notable addition. Edmunds will look to improve a Bucs rushing attack that was the league’s worst in 2022. The team also lost starting guard Shaq Mason however, the drafting in the second round of North Dakota State’s Cody Mauch somewhat offset this.
The Bucs looking at the depth chart still have a lot of defensive talent, and a defensive front featuring the dominant Vita Vea paired with first-round rookie Calijah Kancey will cause offensive lines around the league serious issues.
However, the Bucs’ issue revolves mainly around the QB position, in 2022 Mayfield was statistically one of the league’s worst starters, and Trask is a 2021 second-round pick who has thrown just 9 NFL passes, and it’s not as if the team has a solid running game to fall back on as a running back room of Chase Edmunds and Rachaad White is not scaring anyone.
The harsh reality is after a period of success under Tom Brady it’s likely the Bucs will be back as the worst team in the NFC South for at least the 2023 season, whether they’ll be bad enough to draft Caleb Williams 1st overall is another question. But the likelihood is TB will be selecting at minimum in the top 5 next offseason and will be selecting a Quarterback.
This is a toss-up between three teams as to who will win the division and will likely come down to who has the best QB which puts the Panthers and Saints in the driving seat, Derek Carr is who he is a safe QB who has only won more than 10 times twice in his NFL career, despite being a rookie I’m backing Bryce Young to seamlessly transition to the NFL and showcase his supreme talent early.
Final records predictions:
Carolina Panthers 10-7
New Orleans Saints 8-9
Atlanta Falcons 7-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-13
