What does the future hold for the New England Patriots?
(Credit: Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
The New England Patriots are perceived as the class of the NFL. Since 2000, a once-dismal franchise has now become synonymous with winning. New England has won six championships in that period and they’ve only had one losing season.
That losing season was in 2020 when Covid opt-outs impacted the Patriots far more than any other team. Veterans Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower, and Marcus Cannon all missed the season entirely. Football Outsiders calculated that the 2020 Patriots were the seventh most negatively-affected by injuries of any team in any year since 2000.
Despite this bad luck, the 2020 squad was not abysmal. They finished at a 7-9 record.
With four games in the books for the 2022 season, it seems likely that the Patriots are headed for another below .500 season. The easiest part of their schedule Weeks 5 through 11 is coming up, but starting quarterback Mac Jones will be missing a large chunk of it due to a high ankle sprain.
Relying on third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe to earn those wins seems unlikely.
The conventional wisdom states that the Patriots are doomed for mediocrity. While the 2022 season might be a lost cause, I believe there is a pathway for the Patriots to be contenders as soon as 2023.
Part 1: The last two draft classes have been excellent so far
From 2017 to 2020, four years of bad drafting severely damaged the future prospects of this team. The 2017 draft was railroaded by Deflategate. The Patriots only had four picks that year. Defensive end Deatrich Wise has been the only consistent starter from that group.
In 2018, the Patriots had a full slate of picks. Out of the nine players, only tackle Isaiah Wynn and linebacker JaWhaun Bentley have played a meaningful number of snaps. Wynn’s play has dropped off this season. His future with the team may be short.
2019 was arguably the worst draft of them all. With ten picks, the Patriots only hit on two: running back Damien Harris and punter Jake Bailey. Running back and punter are two of the least valuable positions in football, which devalues this draft class even more.
2020 was a bit better for New England. Once again, they had ten draft picks. This time they hit on three of them. Safety Kyle Dugger, linebacker Josh Uche, and guard MIchael Onewnu will all be part of the Patriots’ core for years to come. Still, averaging less than two new starters per year is really detrimental.
The drafting finally hit a stride in 2021. With the fifteenth pick, they hit on quarterback Mac Jones. Jones was the fifth quarterback selected, so his immediate success in his rookie season was a surprise to see.
Ultimately, a team’s fate is determined by how good their quarterback is. Jones still has glaring flaws. His interceptions have been very costly this season, especially versus Miami and Baltimore. Yet, at his best, Jones offers a lot of hope for Patriots fans.
In the second round, their selection of defensive end Christian Barmore has already paid its dividends. He gets doubled by offensive linemen more than any other Patriots. Then, finding running back Rhomondre Stevenson in the fourth round was another steal. As the 2022 season has progressed, it seems as if Stevenson has overtaken Harris as the most used running back.
The most recent draft built on the previous year’s success. Guard Cole Strange, the first selection, was quickly judged as a mistake by NFL analysts. However, four games in, he’s already at an elite level.
The following pick in Round 2, Tyquan Thorton, has not played in a game yet. However, he was measured as the fastest receiver in the draft. When pre-season reports had a really negative outlook of the Patriots offense, Thornton still received a ton of praise.
Cornerback Marcus Jones was selected in Round 3. He has excelled on special teams as a punt returner in the very beginning of his career. Another cornerback Jack Jones was New England’s fourth pick this year. He forced two turnovers versus Green Bay in Week 4.
Finally, Bailey Zappe proved himself as a solid back-up last week. He’s a legitimate upgrade over veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer.
It seems quite likely that the Patriots will have a higher group of draft picks after this season. If they find the same success that they’ve had in the two or three most recent years that will catapult them back into contention.
Right now, the Patriots have a core of about ten really talented young home-grown players. If that pool can be expanded to fifteen, that will be enough to carry them far.
Part 2: A lot of cap room will finally be freed up
Right now, New England only has a bit more than three million dollars in cap space. However, when looking at the Patriots roster, there are a lot of big contracts coming off the books after this season.
The largest contract is wide receiver Nelson Agholor. His fifteen million dollars could be better spent. The Patriots already have a bevy of wide receivers who all compete with Agholor for playing time.
Offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn gets paid ten million per year and has been penalized more than any other lineman this year. In last week’s game, veteran Marcus Cannon was put on to account for his play.
Finally, three time champion Devin McCourty is making six million this year. McCourty’s speed has taken a hit over the last two seasons. At age 34, he’s already the oldest starting safety in the league. McCourty seems like a likely candidate for retirement.
Together, these three players total over thirty million dollars in cap room. The Patriots have three more years before Mac Jones will need a massive extension and permanently limit the flexibility of the team’s finances.
In this short window, the Patriots need to take advantage of their flexibility. Signing a pro-bowl caliber wide receiver is a necessary step. With the possible exception of Green Bay, every elite team has an elite wideout or tight end.
While no wide receiver is currently set to be a free agent, it is easy to imagine possibilities. Will Mike Evans want to continue playing in Tampa Bay without Tom Brady? Is DK Metcalf happy in Seattle? How much value does free agent Odell Beckham Jr. have?
The Patriots need players who are more than just serviceable. In addition to their young core, they will need some stars as well. Defensive stalwarts Bradley Chubb, Devin Bush, Jordan Poyer, Kwon Alexander and Jessie Bates will all be available in free agency.
There’s no way to sign everyone. Coach Bill Belichick won’t repeat the shopping spree he went on in the 2020 free agency window, but a couple more defensive leaders could push the Patriots over the edge.
An expanding young core, an improving quarterback in Mac Jones, and the ability to add the right mix of veterans provides the pathway back to contention for the 2023 New England Patriots.
