Who will win the AFC West?

Kansas City’s six-year streak of winning the AFC West is in jeopardy in 2022.

Stars like Davante Adams, Khalil Mack, and Russell Wilson have entered the division to bring potency to their respective teams. It’s likely that the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers increase their win total from 2021.

Denver hasn’t fully unlocked the dexterity of Jerry Jeudy because of the poor quality of quarterbacks from seasons past. Los Angeles was unchallenging as a run defense so maybe trading for Mack makes up the difference on the edge.

The Las Vegas Raiders failed to address offensive line woes this year. But their skilled players are as exhilarating as the city they represent. Regardless of who takes the AFC West, the rest of the conference has their hands full with these four teams.

Chargers win their division

A clear-cut drawback of Los Angeles needed tangible change. Teams plowed through the Chargers via the run game. Head coach Brandon Staley must’ve been scratching his head watching his high-drafted players offer little resistance to blockers. Such results were inexcusable. Joey Bosa is all-world on the edge. Kenneth Murray missed some time but not most of the season. Jerry Tillery isn’t a bad player, however, his 2021 letdown resulted in the team declining a fifth-year option on his contract. 

Trading for Khalil Mack made up for some flaws in the run defense. Los Angeles may not be able to gauge which Mack they’ll get. He’s resuming the second half of his career coming from foot surgery. Mack’s injury happened early enough in 2021 so getting back to full strength is almost certain. Total tackles have been reduced in Chicago but contextually, more responsibilities were placed upon him in 2019.

Staley’s obstinate inclination of trying to convert every possible fourth-down might’ve cost the Chargers a Wild Card berth. Justin Herbert can display Aaron Rodgers-type arm talent. That’s not an invitation to throwing caution to the wind in terms of field position.

Keenan Allen won’t completely save the offense on fourth downs anyway. Allen is regarded for his route-running. He lacks speed and the team lacks receiver depth behind Mike Williams. An intelligent defensive coordinator can shade coverage to Allen to force Herbert to third or fourth options late in the down. 

Austin Ekeler became a mainstay in the offense. To the casual fan, he’s likely the league’s most underappreciated running back. Speed is the only quality that Ekeler lacks. He’s become the do-it-all man in everything else. Running behind Rashawn Slater is also ideal.

Ekeler’s all-purpose game, including his strength as a pass blocker, gives the Chargers the edge to win the AFC West for the first time since 2009.

Chiefs clinch top Wild Card spot

Kansas City received great returns in the form of draft capital for shopping Tyreek Hill to Miami.

Hill’s usage for eye candy while in motion pales in comparison to his capability of being a deep threat. Kansas City’s offense started and ended with the 1-2 punch of Kelce and Hill. Run plays were noticeably more insignificant to the passing game. Marques Vadles-Scantling comes off four pedestrian seasons with Green Bay to be a substitute speed guy.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is in prime position to revitalize his career on a one-year deal. Smith-Schuster played just five games in 2021. Refurbishing the passing game to force quicker in-structure plays would actually elevate Patrick Mahomes’ mental process. Even without Hill, Mahomes can progress in a different fashion. 

Tackle Orlando Brown is rightfully looking for a payday as one of the league’s best up front. A Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay where Mahomes was anything but comfortable in the pocket, prompted Brown’s trade from Baltimore. Kansas City placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Brown in early March.

Alongside Brown is the same lineman from last year but competition is brewing for starting right tackle between Lucas Nieng, Andrew Wiley and Darian Canard. Canard is a fifth-round pick who can fit into a guard slot if a situation is warranted.

Steve Spagnuolo’s defense doesn’t strongly resemble the one from 2021 who monumentally improved from midseason onward. The second most consequential offseason roster change was Tyrann Mathieu signing with New Orleans. Mathieu’s leadership can be overshadowed by athletic traits that jump off the film.

Justin Reed from Houston is his replacement but the Chiefs can’t expect him to fill a similar role in terms of position flexibility. Other secondary players gone include Charvarius Ward, Daniel Sorensen and Mike Hughes. Subtracting Sorensen helps if you’ve ever seen him covering deep routes. Four of Kansas City’s 10 draft picks were defensive backs.

Expect the defensive line to be vulnerable to the run. Chris Jones succeeds much better in pass rushing and Derrick Nnadi has crashed during the previous two years. The rest of the line is relatively smaller, including Frank Clark. Clark may be released before Week 1. George Karlaftis is projected to start as a first-rounder in this year’s draft. At Purdue, Karlaftis’ flaw was holding up on ground plays. 

Surprisingly, the linebacking core will anchor the roster. Nick Bolton likely becomes the quarterback of the defense in his sophomore season.

Leo Chanal isn’t a starter yet but coming from Jim Leonard’s scheme at Wisconsin last year is always a plus. Chanal’s 18.5 tackles for loss resulted in him winning Linebacker of the Year in the Big Ten. If Willie Gay Jr. can stay healthy, this position group compensates for the youth in the secondary and the lack of size in front of them.

Broncos scrape into the playoffs

Nathaniel Hackett takes over for a fired Vic Vangio whose defensive-minded coaching didn’t do enough to save his job. The glaring difference between Denver and other AFC West teams has been the carousel of quarterbacks. Russell Wilson is the answer to settle the growing pains of Denver.

Wilson can smoothly run the offense from Hackett’s 11/12 personnel sets. It’s the same personnel Hackett deployed in Jacksonville and with Green Bay. Melvin Gordon may split touches with a much younger Javonte Williams in a zone-ground game. 

Wilson played behind a poor offensive line during the final stretch of his Seattle days. In Denver, the tackles will make all the difference if Wilson gets to pass on the move consistently. Garrett Bolles at left tackle went from a draft bust to an immovable force. At right tackle, Billy Turner is in his second stint with Denver. Turner spent a few seasons in Green Bay, a franchise known for churning out great pass protectors. 

Denver’s defense held down the fort while the offense sputtered in the post-Manning era. This trend shouldn’t change with the core secondary of Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson and Patrick Surtain II. In new coordinator Ejiro Evero’s defense, there’s no steep learning curve which simplifies pre-snap communication amongst players. 

The Broncos are no joke up front. They signed D.J. Jones to a three-year, $30 million contract. He can get after the quarterback but really earns a living on run plays. Randy Gregory also received a payday but his biggest complication has always been availability.

The same difficulty lies with veteran Bradley Chubb. Chubb has previously torn an ACL and undergone ankle surgery. Inside linebacker appears like the only downside to the defense. Depth is an issue outside of the re-signed Josey Jewell. A promising offense led by Wilson spares the defense of tiredness from extended possessions.

Las Vegas finish last

Las Vegas would like to forget the turbulence of 2021 that led them to this point. Al Davis made three major offseason moves (Josh McDaniels, Davante Adams, Chandler Jones) that caught the eyes of everyone.

McDaniels is the new head coach with experience working with the greatest head coach, quarterback, and tight end ever. He’ll likely fare better than other branches of the Bill Belichick tree if the “Patriot Way” mentality is placed to the side.

McDaniels is his own man and should coach as such. The failures of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia are an indicator that New England’s team philosophy specifically fits New England. He will presumably call the plays.   

New Raider Davante Adams is everything you want in a No. 1 wideout in terms of footwork, route running, and contested-catch ability. Adams and quarterback Derek Carr were college teammates at Fresno State but that fact doesn’t necessarily translate to poetry in motion on the field.

If Adams’ numbers drop compared to recent years, it wouldn’t hurt the team overall. Darren Waller is the tight end of the future in addition to being a feel-good comeback story. Hunter Renfrow may have been overpaid on an extension that says more about the receiver market than Renfrow himself. 

The presence of Adams gives permission for Carr to continue working on his deep balls. It does counter McDaniels’ comfort zone of throwing deep passes if you consider his time with New England. Working slower developing routes can be limited with an ineffective line outside of Kolton Miller. 

Patrick Graham is now the defensive coordinator. With the Giants, he ran a two-high shell with a lower blitz rate. Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby are giddy about lining up on opposite sides this season. Two All-Pro pass rushers paired with Graham’s propensity to use a four-man rush can’t be overlooked as an upside for the Raiders.

The secondary from 2021 was toward the bottom of the league statistically. They’re still in limbo even in a situation where Jonathan Abram plays every game. Abram serves as an enforcer but tends to play recklessly occasionally. Casey Hayward is gone to Atlanta which is relevant with him formerly being the team’s best corner.