Who won the Aaron Rodgers trade?
The date is April 24th 2023, it’s just after 9pm in London and my phone lights up with a notification. It’s breaking news from Adam Schefter that Aaron Rodgers has been traded from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets.
We all knew this announcement was coming, it was just a question of when. My instinct was to open Twitter immediately to gauge the reaction.
Under my trending section was the word “#Fleeced”. I couldn’t help but peek at the timeline to watch Packers and Jets fans tweeting at each other that the other side had been robbed and that their side got the deal of the century. At this point I hadn’t seen the trade compensation breakdown.
After a few minutes of mindless scrolling, I went back to Schefter’s tweet to look at the trade breakdown. The Jets received Rodgers, a 2023 first round pick, and a fifth round pick, whilst the Packers received a 2023 first round pick, a second round pick, sixth round pick and a 2024 second round pick which is conditional on Rodgers playing 65% of the snaps in the 2023 season.
On the first look, my initial thoughts were, “yep, the Jets did get #Fleeced!” There are two standout elements of the trade that make me think this.
Trading back from pick 13 to 15
The Jets trading back in the first round from pick 13 to pick 15 which Assistant GM Rex Hogan claimed would not alter their draft strategy to target the offensive tackle position, did not seem like anything major pre-draft.
However, fast forward to draft night and the Jets were on the clock with each of their top tier targets already selected. Paris Johnson Jr (Cardinals), Darnell Wright (Bears), Peter Skoronski (Titans) and Broderick Jones (Steelers) were all off the board. Instead, the Jets decided to select edge rusher Will McDonald out of Iowa State, who many had projected to be selected in the early second round.
With the Jets already having sufficient depth at edge rusher in Quinnen Williams, Jermaine Johnson and Carl Lawson, it wasn’t a priority position. On top of that, there are also question marks about the size profile of McDonald being suitable for the edge rusher position. At the time of writing this looks like the Jets reached for McDonald unnecessarily and he could be a square peg trying to fit into a round hole.
In contrast, the Packers selected defensive end Lukas Van Ness out of Iowa with pick 13. Van Ness is said to be versatile, being able to play anywhere across the front. With starting defensive end Rashan Gary still coming back from a torn ACL, Van Ness could prove to be useful acquisition to deputise in his potential absence at the start of the season. The Packers have an average defensive unit, who ranked 20th in DVOA last season.
The addition of Van Ness will provide much needed depth and could mean that we see an improved Packers defense this coming season. This will be needed if they want to be competitive in a division where their rivals are strengthening at a rate of knots. Before any football has been played, the Packers appear to be winning the trade so far based on the first round picks made by both teams.
Conditional 2024 pick
The Jets sending a 2024 pick to the Packers which is conditional on Rodgers playing 65% of the snaps this coming season is problematic for them. Rodgers is a player who has been flirting with retirement for the past two seasons, which is to be expected for a 40-year-old player who has been taking punishment in the form of hits and sacks throughout his career.
He would be forgiven for playing one more season with the Jets before riding off into the sunset to host Jeopardy. However, the Jets would likely feel short changed given what they have given up for Rodgers. For more security the Jets could have sent the 2024 pick to the Packers with condition that Rodgers play 65% of the snaps in the 2024 season.
Or if that didn’t work for the Packers, they could have set the condition as the Jets having to make the playoffs this upcoming season. Both options would protect the value of Rodgers. But instead, the Packers will be confident that they will get a 2024 pick from the Jets in this trade and it’s a distinct possibility that Rodgers only plays for one year.
That puts a huge amount of pressure on the Jets to make sure that they take their shot at the Super Bowl this season. This goes down as another tick in the box for the Packers winning this trade so far.
The case for the Jets winning the trade
However, after having some time to reflect on what the trade means for both teams I have been leaning towards the idea that the winner of this trade isn’t so clear cut as I initially thought. Whilst it may look like the Packers are winning the trade on paper, it’s important that we add some wider context here. The Jets have just traded for a future hall of famer and one of the best quarterbacks in the game for the past 10 years.
If you consider that the Jets have arguably been below average at the quarterback position since the Brett Favre days in 2008, the Jets and their fans will be over the moon that they have landed a top tier quarterback in Rodgers. It could be argued that Rodgers was one of last pieces needed for the Jets being ready to win now.
Rodgers will have a plethora of receivers to throw to in breakout star Garrett Wilson, ex Packers teammate Allen Lazard (and now Randall Cobb) and an impressive supporting cast comprising of Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman Jr. Breece Hall and Michael Carter will also provide a dynamic one-two punch at the running back position to lean on when required.
On the other side of the ball the Jets have a hard hitting and ball hawking defense who were ranked 5th in DVOA last season. It’s hard to see the Jets not at the very least making the play offs with this team.
At the end of the day, if a team makes a trade for a player and that player makes them a contender then you can argue that the trade is worth it. And the betting markets agree that Rodgers will make the Jets a contender. The day after Superbowl LVII, the Jets were 25/1 to win Superbowl LVIII. Today the Jets are 10/1 to win Superbowl LVIII and 6/1 to win the AFC. That’s an AFC containing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow by the way.
A Packers fan might read this and respond with “did you not see Rodgers last year!? He’s washed.” I don’t agree with that. There are mitigating circumstances for a sub-par performance last season. For example, we now know that Rodgers had been playing most of the season with a broken thumb.
An injury detrimental to any quarterback. He also lost his favourite and best receiving target in Devante Adams, who has made Derek Carr look like an above average quarterback at times last season.
Rodgers stat line last season would be a steep drop off compared with his dominant 2020 and 2021 seasons. He threw for a combined 8,344 yards, 85 touchdowns and finished with the best quarterback rating in the league.
He obviously also won the MVP award in both of those seasons as well. I can’t see the true drop off being that steep. A fully fit and functioning Rodgers with a full set of weapons won’t be throwing below 4,000 yards or throwing 12 picks in a season.
So who won the trade?
Overall, with all factors considered, I think Jets have slightly overpaid for Rodgers by giving the Packers that extra conditional 2024 pick. However, I also think that Rodgers is a player worth overpaying for. What the Jets have bought is a player who will transform them into an offensive juggernaut and potentially win them the AFC or maybe even a Super Bowl.
And if that happens then the Jets will have won the trade hands down. If that doesn’t happen, then the Packers will be happy that they cashed in on Rodgers at the right time and got a very good price for a 40-year old quarterback.
