Why the Chiefs will finish last in the AFC West in 2022
The Kansas City Chiefs have become one of, if not the, most consistent teams in the NFL since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018.
Their success over that period includes two Super-Bowl appearances (one victory), appearing in every AFC championship game and recording a Super-Bowl win in 2019, records which only square up to other elite QB’s such as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Therefore, the idea that the Chiefs could miss the playoffs by finishing last in their division, let alone not making the AFC championship game, is heinous is to say the least, right? Well, that could be the case in 2023.
One of the keys to the Chiefs success every year since 2018 is the fact that they go 5-1 or 6-0 every season against their divisional AFC West opponents; the Los Angeles Chargers, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos.
In fact, Mahomes’ record against these three teams in his career is 21 wins to only three losses. It’s not unheard of that elite quarterbacks do well in their division. Brady’s career versus the AFC East when he was with the New England Patroits is 86 wins to 22 losses. Aaron Rodgers’ record vs NFC North teams is 56 wins, 21 losses and one tie.
I am predicting the shock that all three teams will not only beat Mahomes this, but the Chiefs will end the 2022/23 season in last place without a playoff spot. And there are a few reasons for this.
Every divisional team has drastically improved
As mentioned, Mahomes and the Chiefs have dominated the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos every year since 2018. But there is a strong argument that all three of these teams were previously no threats to the Chiefs in the division before 2022.
For example, the Broncos couldn’t record a quarterback who has started for three consecutive seasons since Peyton Manning retired in 2016.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have gone through controversy every year since 2018, including their head coach and General Manager (Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock respectively) both being fired halfway through the 2021 season due to off-field issues and underperforming.
Finally, the Chargers are going through a unique case of moving into the high-profile market of Los Angeles since 2019, with all their loyal fans still residing in their previous hometown of San Diego, whilst also going through shocking defeats to teams such as the Texans last year.
However, Chiefs fans shouldn’t rest on their laurels and assume that the AFC West will be a cake-walk as it has been in recent years. Each team has been the beneficiary of a significant trades or acquisition in the off-season to beat the Chiefs of their divisional crown.
The Chargers have hugely re-built their defense, loading up through signing former New England Patriot and All-Pro star JC Jackson in free agency. Jackson has recorded 25 interceptions in four years, more than any other cornerback. Los Angeles also traded for 2016’s Defensive Player of the Year, Kahlil Mack.
While both moves have their doubters, primarily questioning whether Jackson is simply a product of the Bill Belichek system and if Mack still has juice in his tank, the Chargers are a much more balanced team as a result. They have previously had to heavily rely on second year QB, Justin Herbert, to carry the team to wins. Hopefully not anymore.
Meanwhile, the Raiders also made 2 significant signings this summer. They have traded for All-Pro Wide Receiver Davante Adams, whilst also signing pass-rusher Chandler Jones, who recorded 10.5 sacks in 2021.
Yet more importantly, the coach hire of long-time Patriot Offensive Coordinator, Josh McDaniels, signals long-term stability for the team. It also gives Derek Carr some much needed guidance to help him continue to improve his game.
The Broncos could be seen to have had the strongest off-season out of the three teams. They’ve traded for superstar QB Russell Wilson and pass-rusher Randy Gregory.
Whilst these are high-risk acquisitions, the reward is also substantially high. Wilson is the only QB to have nine winning seasons in a row before his injury-ridden 2021 season. The Broncos finished with 7 wins despite swapping between 2 sub-par quarterbacks in 2021, so it’s hard not to predict Denver recording more wins with a superstar like Wilson.
The Chiefs have not adequately improved their roster
With all these high-profile trades and signings, it is of equal importance to focus on how the Chiefs have, or in this case have not, improved during this offseason. While the Chiefs have lost established players like Tryann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen, the loss of All-Pro Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill is a big question mark.
Whilst losing the fastest player in the sport would be detrimental for any team, it’s hard to see how Mahomes can replicate his own production without his favourite target, particularly for Mahomes’ deep-ball physical play.
The Chiefs have gone through the process of replacing Hill through free-agency and the draft, including signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster. But both players didn’t shown the same production as Hill in 2021.
A deep QB-WR connection is an absolute must in 2022’s NFL. This was shown in the latest Super Bowl, involving two teams with two of the best partnerships in the league (Burrow to Chase; Stafford to Kupp). Therefore, it will be hard for the Chiefs to replicate their own success without Tyreek Hill, even if they try to substitute using B-level replacements
Winning fatigue
It’s also worth looking at how the title of consistently being hailed as the ‘team to beat’ in the Super Bowl may be affecting the team’s core fatigue. The Chiefs have a regular season record of 48 wins to only six losses since 2018. That’s the best in the NFL.
Further, the NFL is one the world’s most televised sports, with the average viewership up to 17 million views in 2021. There is more pressure than ever for the best teams to constantly live up to the standards of millions of viewers, let alone their own standards.
As such, even the best NFL teams of all time, like the New England Patriots, had a 10-year gap between Super-Bowl wins (2004 – 2014). This can be put down to the mental fatigue of being the favourites from viewers every year.
It is not outrageous to imagine the same will happen to the Chiefs.Other AFC teams such as the Bills, Bengals, Ravens and Dolphins have all loaded up with talent for the upcoming season. There is plenty of competition out there.
As such, it’s not hard to predict that the Chiefs will take a step, or leap, back this year. Divisional opponents finally resolving the issues that have held each team back for years, whilst the Chiefs themselves have to change their own playbook due to losing their best playmaker.
In the long-term, it may be seen a blessing for the Chiefs to step down in 2022. They need to rebuild the offense around their weapons such as tight-end Travis Kelce or running back Clyde Edwards-Heliare before reminding us viewers why they are the kings of the AFC in 2023.
