Will another QB win the Super Bowl in his first season with his new team?

Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford are two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.

Brady is considered “The GOAT” and Stafford will be in the NFL Hall of Fame if he has a strong finish to his career.

Despite all their success, however, it is difficult for any quarterback to pull off what Brady and Stafford have accomplished in back-to-back years. That is, after many years with one team, Brady and Stafford won a Super Bowl in the first year with their new team.

Brady had been the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots from the 2001-02 through 2019-20 seasons. But he joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the start of the 2020-21 season. Many speculated whether the then 43-year-old quarterback who had been with the same franchise for close to 20 years would find success in a new system.

After all, he no longer had who many consider the greatest coach ever: Bill Belichick. But Brady defied all odds. He led the Buccaneers to an 11-5 regular season record and the Lombardi Trophy in his first year with the team. 

In Stafford’s case, he had been the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions from the 2009-10 through 2020-21 seasons. Following the 2020-21 season, however, the Lions traded Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams. Like Brady, Stafford immediately experienced tremendous success with his new team. Under Stafford, the Rams went 12-5 and won the NFC West.

Stafford went on to lead the Rams to their first Super Bowl victory since 2000, knocking out defending Super Bowl champion Brady in the process.

Change of scenery, change of fortunes?

It seems that these recent examples of high-profile quarterbacks finding immediate success with their new teams have emboldened other high-profile quarterbacks to seek new teams this NFL offseason.

Some examples include Russell Wilson joining the Denver Broncos, Deshaun Watson joining the Cleveland Browns, and Matt Ryan joining the Indianapolis Colts.

In each one of those instances, the quarterback had been with the same team for his entire career before moving elsewhere this offseason: Wilson had been with the Seahawks for the first 10 years of his career, Watson had been with the Texans for the first 5 years of his career, and Ryan had been with the Falcons for the first 14 years of his career.

Ryan said on joining a new team for the first time in his 14-year career, “The road map looks really good… What Matthew Stafford did in L.A. last year, making that transition playing so well, and what Tom Brady did… I think we can, like I said, ride that trend that’s been going on and make it work for us.”

Mike Jones of USATODAY described the trend, saying, “For years, players were programmed to feel beholden to teams and fulfilled their contracts until their franchises discarded them for younger, more desirable options. But now, a select group of NFL stars understand the power that they wield and have figured out how to capitalize.” 

The question becomes if this is some anomaly or if quarterbacks will continue to find success in the first year with their new team. In a sport like the NFL, continuity seems important to a team’s success; and so, it would seem difficult to insert a new quarterback and have immediate success.

Not all situations are created equal, and some quarterbacks are certainly primed to have more success in the first year with their new team than others. There are eight quarterbacks that find themselves with a new team this upcoming season, and I am going to rank how I think they will fare in year number one:

Matt Ryan

(Atlanta Falcons to Indianapolis Colts)

The Colts went on an 8-2 stretch and looked prime to win the AFC South a year ago. Ryan will provide the Colts with the leadership and stability that Carson Wentz could not provide. Record prediction: 12-5

Russell Wilson

(Seattle Seahawks to Denver Broncos)

Wilson was a nine-time pro bowler with the Seahawks and is still considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He should take a talented Broncos team to a level they could not attain with Drew Lock as their quarterback. Record prediction: 11-6

Deshaun Watson

(Houston Texans to Cleveland Browns)

Watson will be suspended for at least six games for sexual misconduct in 2022. If the Browns can make it out of that stretch with a 3-3 record, they should be in a great position for a playoff berth. Record prediction: 10-7

Carson Wentz

(Indianapolis Colts to Washington Commanders)

Jim Irsay was blunt in his reasoning to move on from Wentz after one year. Wentz has a high ceiling, but will need to prove himself as a leader and strong decision maker to win over the Commanders and their fanbase. Record prediction: 8-9

Baker Mayfield

(Cleveland Browns to Carolina Panthers)

Mayfield will be out for revenge after Cleveland decided to move on from him for Deshaun Watson. Of course, as Matt Rhule has said, he will need to win the job over Sam Darnold and Matt Corral first. Record prediction: 8-9

Mitch Trubisky

(Buffalo Bills to Pittsburgh Steelers)

Trubisky will be competing with first-round selection Kenny Pickett for the starting job in Pittsburgh. In a division with the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns, it would not be surprising to see the Steelers finish in last place. Record prediction: 7-10

Drew Lock

(Denver Broncos to Seattle Seahawks)

Lock will be competing with Jacob Eason and Geno Smith for the starting job in Seattle. After Wilson led the Seahawks to a winning record in nine of ten seasons with the team, fans will likely be disappointed in the product that the Seahawks will put on the field in 2022. Record prediction: 5-12

Marcus Mariota

(Las Vegas Raiders to Atlanta Falcons)

Taking over for four-time pro bowler Matt Ryan will be no easy task for Mariota. He will serve as a bridge for a Falcons team that is clearly in a rebuild. Record prediction: 3-14

–

There are eight quarterbacks who are playing for a new team this upcoming season. I predict only three will finish with a winning record. The Colts, led by Matt Ryan, is the team I am highest on, having them finishing with a 12-5 record.

Nonetheless, I do not believe the Colts, nor any other team with a first-year quarterback, is bound to win the Super Bowl.

It would be a cool story for one of these quarterbacks to follow in the footsteps of Brady and Stafford and make it three consecutive years a quarterback has won a Super Bowl with his new team. So, I hope I am proven wrong.