Geno Smith deserves his new contract

First write him off, then write him a three-year, $105 million contract extension. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith got paid this week, as he continues his quest for repayment to the franchise that bet on him in 2022.

Thus, the latest chapter in the feel-good story of the 2022 NFL season has been written, and for 32-year-old Smith, it’s a life-changing deal considering he’d made $17.5 million in his first 10 seasons in the league. 

So, is that Geno absolutely locked in as the starter for three more years? What will his cap hit be? Is it a good deal and does it mean a QB is out of the question in the upcoming draft?

What are the contract details

the deal between the Seahawks and Smith has an average value of $25 million per season (three years, $75 million), on top of a potential $30 million in incentives that could take the deal to a maximum value of $105 million. $40 million of his contract was also revealed to be fully guaranteed at signing. 

But here’s the interesting part, it’s reported that Smith could earn up to $52 million of his contract in the first calendar year due to incentives. That means half of his total contract could be paid off in the first year.

And with Smith set to earn a reported $28 million in 2023, that would mean that if  Seattle wanted to move on from Geno in 2024, they would only need to pay him $12 million. So the franchise has cleverly weaved in an easy way out should Geno regress or they decide to go with a QB on a rookie contract. 

To summarise, Geno’s contract isn’t really a three-year, $105 million deal, it’s actually a three-year, $75 million contract with an extra $30 million in incentives. We don’t know for certainty at the time of writing of what his cap hit for 2023 will be, but experts and analysts are estimating that it could be as low as $10 million, with the expectation that it should be no higher than $20 million.

Does this deal mean Seattle won’t draft a QB?

In my opinion, no, and if anything it increases the chances of taking one of 2023’s top signal caller prospects. 

After his combine workout, Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson said that he felt an “instant rapport” with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, and that something about his meeting with the hawks “felt different”. 

So what does Carroll make of those somewhat flirtatious comments? Well, for the last few weeks the noise coming out of Seattle’s camp has been that they’re keeping all options on the table when it comes to that number five pick. 

And on the day after inking Geno Smith’s extension, speaking in an interview with ESPN 710 Seattle, Carroll said regarding drafting a quarterback early: “That opportunity is absolutely there… When you’re at five, this is different than what we’re used to seeing.” 

And different to what they’re used to seeing is absolutely correct, as in the 13 drafts Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider have led the team through (2010-2022), only twice have they picked inside the top 10 – sixth overall in 2010 (Russell Okung), and ninth overall in 2022 (Charles Cross). 

Schneider also spoke on the possibility of taking a QB at the combine after being asked why they would consider it when they’re closing in on extending Geno, responding: “Because they don’t grow on trees.”

So take into consideration both Richardson’s and Seattle management comments, then consider the fact that only $40 million of Geno’s incentive-laden contract is fully guaranteed, meaning Seattle has an easy exit out of the contract if they wish to move on, then I think you have to feel like a QB is definitely still in play early in the draft.

It’s certainly going to be fascinating to see how it all plays out come draft night that’s for sure. Does Pete have his poker face on?, Is it all a smokescreen to trade down or take a defensive player?, Will they capitalise on what is essentially a rare free hit (fifth pick came from Denver) to draft their future franchise QB? Anything could happen.

How I feel about Geno and his contract

As a Seahawks fan myself, the feeling that we’d extend Geno this off-season was always one of inevitability, the question never really felt like it was if he re-signed, it was for how much when he did.

And so when the news broke and I saw the initial three-year, $105 million figure, my first response was that’s a lot, but at least it’s less than the contracts being handed out to Derek Carr and Daniel Jones respectively. In that regard, I was fairly content going to bed that night.

Then I woke up the following morning, and as the day progressed and more details of the actual structure of the deal emerged, I only became happier. And as I sit here writing this piece a couple of days after the deal was agreed, I’m absolutely over the moon with it.

In my opinion, it’s a win-win for Seattle. Firstly, because it’s such an incentive-laden deal, not only does that mean we’re handing him a more team-friendly deal in terms of the salary cap, it also means that if Geno hits those incentive bonuses, it’ll mean he’s playing great football and in theory we’ll be winning plenty of games.

Secondly, to that same point, if Geno isn’t playing as well as the franchise would like and he isn’t hitting those incentives, then because only $40 million is fully guaranteed, the team can move on from him for relatively little money.

To be able to pay him less money than Carr and Jones, for a QB who led the league in completion percentage (69.8%), and broke multiple single season franchise records held by Russell Wilson and Matt Hasselbeck respectively, that’s a pretty good deal in my eyes.

Not only this, but it’s also entirely plausible that Geno gets even better next season, with another year in the system and an abundance of draft capital to put more pieces around him. And with the salary cap limit only going up every season, it’s my opinion that this deal is only going to look better and better as the months and seasons go by.