Is the AFC set to dominate over the NFC for the foreseeable future?

The relationship between the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC) has always been contentious. Ever since the two conferences merged in 1966, creating what is the NFL today.

It’s not uncommon for one conference to dominate over the other for a long period of time. For example, teams from the AFC won 11 of the first 15 Super Bowls, before the dominant 49ers and Cowboys teams of the 80’s and 90’s led the charge for the NFC.

Since the turn of the century, it’s been much more contested. Both conferences have 10 Super Bowl wins each from the last 20 years. Yet, this NFL offseason has highlighted another shift in the imbalance between the conferences. To a point where many feel the AFC looks could dominate over the NFC over the next few years at the very least. And this possibility may end up being for the foreseeable.

Out with the old

Currently, the top three teams with the highest odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in 2023 are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers.

All three teams will be in serious contention to lift the Lombardi Trophy. But each of these teams have potentially serious longevity issues coming in the future.

Beginning with the obvious, there is a strong possibility this will be Tom Brady’s final season in the NFL for a multitude of reasons. Ranging from his previous retirement, his favourite weapon Rob Gronkowski retiring, and Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians leaving the team.

It’s hard not to think that Brady came back to the NFL this offseason for narrative purposes. One final shot at a seventh Super Bowl ring and becoming the only player to have more Lombardi Trophy wins than any team, before riding off into the sunset.

Simultaneously, like the Buccaneers, there is a very strong chance that Green Bay Packers’ Hall of Fame quarterback won’t be with the team much longer. This is despite receiving a huge new contract this offseason. It has been mentioned by Packers’ President, Mark Murphey, that Aaron Rodgers’ contract is not a three-year deal, but rather three one-year agreements. This means that Rodgers has the flexibility to retire after any of those three years.

With his golf connections and being one of the front runners to become the next host of US gameshow Jeopardy, the temptation of retirement might be too much for Rodgers to withstand. With Jordan Love on the back-up seat for the Packers, as well as an enticing QB class in the 2023 NFL draft, it makes sense for both parties if Aaron Rodgers retires even a year from now. This would give time for Green Bay to focus on youth and development before another charge at the Super Bowl, as they always have done.

Super Bowl and bust?

As for the Rams, they do still have the strong case to be the NFC powerhouse for the next few seasons. But Los Angeles also have their own questions to their longevity as the conference’s top dog.

To state the obvious, the salary cap could soon become a problem. Following the 2022 offseason, the Rams will have only $1.7 million dollars in cap in 2023 with key rotational players such as Darrell Henderson, Taylor Rapp and Troy Hill having their contracts run out in 2023.

The Rams also only have two picks within the top 128 in the 2023 NFL Draft. And while the Rams are known not to value draft picks, it’s tough to replace key rotational players with unproven, late-round rookies.

Most importantly for the Rams’ future, Aaron Donald had also flirted with retirement before signing a new short-term this offseason. But this comes with its own question marks. Donald had previously mentioned retirement shortly before their Super Bowl 56 win and has a clause in his contract that will allow him to retire only next year, or continue in 2024 for another $30 million.

History has shown that players who begin flirting with retirement often follow suit shortly after. With Donald’s outstanding personal achievements, topping it off with a Super Bowl ring has silenced the questions about his status as one of the greatest to ever play the game. It may be his best interest to retire soon before his inevitable decline in the future. 

Ruling out those three teams, the NFC looks likely to be contested between the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Cardinals, 49ers and Saints in the near future. They all can be seen to have great rosters, but each having one or two major issues holding them back from contention.

The Cowboys and Cardinals had disappointing ends to last season. And both have lost key components to their team’s success in recent years. Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper and Arizona’s edge rusher Chandler Jones both transferred to AFC teams in the spring.

Meanwhile, the Eagles, Vikings, 49ers and Saints are all in a similar quarterback boat. Four good teams being hindered by poor quarterback play (although the judge is still out on Jalen Hurts for the Eagles and Trey Lance for the 49ers) or consistent injuries.

In with the new

The AFC is nothing but youth and talent. The immediate front-runners for the conference that most will think of include Mahomes’ Chiefs and Josh Allen’s Bills. However, it is hard to ignore the rest of the competition.

The Bengals and Joe Burrow have already recorded a Super Bowl appearance, whilst also beating the Chiefs twice to get there. They have drastically addressed their only true weakness in the offensive line this offseason, so should be primed to get even better. 

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are also not to be sniffed at. Jackson already has an MVP award under his belt and the Ravens are being hailed as one of the winners in the 2022 NFL Draft. If the team can stay healthy and Jackson can return to his 2019 form, the Ravens have a great shot at a Super Bowl.

Even AFC teams that finished outside the playoffs, such as the Colts and the Dolphins, have improved this year. The Colts have upgraded at quarterback with Matt Ryan (who was 32 yards shy from achieving his 11th consecutive season of 4,000 yards), while the Dolphins added talent at wide receiver with Tyreek Hill, whilst also hiring Offensive Coordinator Mike McDaniels to progress Tua Tagovailoa’s QB play.

Elsewhere, the Broncos, Browns, Jaguars and Jets all have promising futures. The latter two have rookie QB’s entering a key season season of development, with both teams upgrading in the draft and in free agency.

Further, the Broncos acquired superstar Russell Wilson from the Seahawks (NFC team), while the Browns have a loaded roster and traded for QB Deshaun Watson this offseason. Watson is a top-5 QB talent-wise, but his many legal issues are yet to be resolved.

All in all, it is looks even more likely that there will be a dramatic shift between the AFC and NFC conference. While there is still time for NFC teams to change this dynamic, the battles across the AFC look a lot more intriguing.

Let’s see what happens in 2022!