NFL division previews 2023: NFC South

It’s no secret that the NFC South was the worst division in football last year. The 2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) joined the 2020 Washington Commanders (7-9), the 2014 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) and the 2010 Seattle Seahawks (7-9) as the only teams since the turn of the century to win their division.

With just a week to go until the 2023 NFL Draft, just which of the teams in the division are closest to making a Super Bowl run?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2022 record: 8-9 (1st)

It’s all change in Florida for the Buccaneers, as the post Tom Brady era dawns for a cap-strapped and ageing roster. Todd Bowles has been given another chance to prove his value as Head Coach, taking the decision to overhaul the coaching staff and start fresh.

New Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales enters the frame following 12 years as a Quarterback Coach in Seattle. His offensive scheme is likely to be run heavy, as the Bucs look to overcome a season where they wound up as one of the worst rushing teams in the history of the league.

General Manager Jason Licht has done a great job to retain key free agents so far, such as Corner Jamel Dean, and legendary Linebacker Lavonte David. The addition of Ryan Neal is one that should excite fans, as the team attempts to stay in the division title picture without a clear QB1 before the start of training camp.

It looks set that Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask will battle it out to be lead signal caller, but don’t count out the possibility that the Bucs draft Kentucky’s Will Levis or Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, having hosted the duo on Top 30 draft visits.

Having invested so heavily over the last few seasons, the time to pay up was always going to come eventually, but with a lot of key pieces such as Mike Evans, Tristan Wirfs, Vita Vea and Carlton Davis still around, this team definitely has the potential to bounce back with a third consecutive division title this year.

Carolina Panthers – 2022 record: 7-10 (2nd)

A lot of the Panthers’ hopes both in the short and long term, depend on the decision they make with the first overall pick in this years’ draft. Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? New Head Coach Frank Reich historically likes his big, imposing QB’s, but Young represents the most polished product.

If this team is to make the play-offs this year and make a run at winning this division for the first time since 2015, they’re going to have to pick an accurate distributor of the ball. The lack of notable targets is a concern, as new acquisition Adam Thielen sits as WR1 following the trade of DJ Moore to Chicago, but the offense isn’t going to be the main cog of this team.

That would be the defense with stars like Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn set to lead this organisation for the foreseeable future. This team is firmly in rebuild mode, but we saw them transition through three different Quarterbacks last year and still win seven games.

Just imagine what they could do with a consistent play caller at the helm. They definitely have a shot at the division this year, if they wind up making the right decision with the first overall pick in the draft…

New Orleans Saints – 2022 record: 7-10 (3rd)

Besides the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this Saints team headed into the off season in the worst cap space situation. Somehow, headed to the draft, they’ve secured the signing of Derek Carr on a 4-year $150 million deal, and retained Jameis Winston as a solid backup.

Sadly, they lost some of their key defensive players such as Marcus Davenport to the Minnesota Vikings, and David Onyemata to the division rival Atlanta Falcons. It’s highly like that the defense won’t pack the same punch it has done over the previous years, but with a defensive Head Coach in the form of Dennis Allen, they’re still going to be solid on that side of the ball.

The main questions remain with the offense. Can Michael Thomas finally get over his horrible run of injuries? Can Derek Carr get to and win in the playoffs for the first time in nine years? The Saints don’t pick until later into the first-round this year, which doesn’t help their situation, but this was another team that despite having Andy Dalton at QB last year, still managed to win seven games.

If they can steal a few players in the later rounds of the draft, then they could make a run at the division title in 2023, but they are overly dependent on some players rediscovering Pro-Bowl level form.

Atlanta Falcons – 2022 record: 7-10 (4th)

Probably the team in the worst position on this list, the Atlanta Falcons left it late last season to give Desmond Ridder a chance, as he finished with a 2-2 record across his four starts. He’ll be the teams’ starter this year, as they give the promising young QB a full season to develop.

With the eighth pick in this years’ draft, they’re likely to take a defensive piece like Tyree Wilson or Nolan Smith – Someone that can come in and make an effect from day one.

They’ve made some good free agent signings including former second-team All-Pro Safety Jessie Bates III, so their defense should be stable this season. 

Offensively, it’s no secret that they lack playmakers – Drake London and Kyle Pitts the key pieces coming off underwhelming seasons. Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson bring a bright spark that could help to invigorate this offense, but the draft is going to be key for them to create some depth in their receiving core.

If Head Coach Arthur Smith can hit a home run on one or two of their offensive picks, then this team behind Desmond Ridder could shock the league and make the playoffs – But that’s an unlikely prospect.

NFC South assessment

Overall, this division is wide open. The draft is going to be key for all four teams, as they look to find franchise altering pieces in a race for the division crown.

The leaders in the race appear to be the Bucs and Panthers, but the Saints and Falcons sit close behind in what is going to be another tight battle for the NFC South division title.