NFL tiers going into the 2023 season
(Credit: AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
There is plenty of uncertainty following the draft and with the 2023 NFL season still several months away. But it is never too early to project how the teams are going to perform.
In this article, I will break down all 32 NFL teams into five different tiers; the number in parentheses to the left of each team corresponds to my power ranking for the team.
My five tiers are:
Tier 1: Super Bowl or Bust
Tier 2: Playoffs or Bust
Tier 3: Playoff Contenders
Tier 4: Won’t Be Competitive
Tier 5: Bottom Feeders
Tier One: Super Bowl or Bust
(1) Kansas City Chiefs
(2) Philadelphia Eagles
(3) Cincinnati Bengals
(4) San Francisco 49ers
(5) Buffalo Bills
I think it is fair to say that, for the five teams I have included in this Super Bowl or Bust tier, anything short of a Super Bowl title feels like a disappointment. Four of the five teams in this tier happen to be the teams that played during Championship Weekend last year: the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, and 49ers. None of those teams suffered any massive losses this offseason, and it is fair to say that they should be considered the frontrunners for 2023.
To be frank, as long as the Chiefs have Mahomes, the Bengals have Burrow, and the Eagles have Hurts, they should probably be included in this tier every year. Of course, the 49ers do have questions at the quarterback position, but they are too talented elsewhere to not be included in this first tier. The Buffalo Bills are the only team that did not make it to Championship Weekend that I included in
this tier. Although I was hesitant to do so because I think the Bills are a step below the first four teams in this tier, it is important to remember that the Bills were regarded by many to be the league’s best team for much of the first half of the 2022 season. After a disappointing end to last season, expect Buffalo to come out with a new sense of energy and compete for the AFC title at the very least.
Tier Two: Playoffs or Bust
(6) Los Angeles Chargers
(7) Dallas Cowboys
(8) New York Jets
(9) Baltimore Ravens
(10) Jacksonville Jaguars
(11) Miami Dolphins
(12) Detroit Lions
(13) Minnesota Vikings
The expectation for these eight teams is the playoffs; if they fall short, there will be significant disappointment. After all, six of these eight teams made the playoffs last season. The other two, the Jets and Lions, were still competing for a playoff berth during the final week and should be improved in 2023.
Taking a look at some of the other teams in this tier, I actually considered placing the Chargers in the Super Bowl or Bust tier. They certainly have the talent at the quarterback position and several other positions on their roster to be in that tier, but for a team that last won a playoff game five seasons ago that seemed ambitious.
The Cowboys would be placed on the Super Bowl or Bust tier if it was up to their fans, but I do not see this team winning more than a playoff game; it cannot be overstated that the last time they won more than a single playoff game was 1996. The Ravens, Dolphins, and Jaguars should all be playoff teams, but in the AFC it is unlikely they are going to seriously contend for a trip to the Super Bowl. If any of these teams played in the NFC, I may have considered moving them to my first tier.
The Lions and Vikings have taken a backseat to the Packers in the NFC North for much of the 21st century, but both should compete for the division crown this year with Aaron Rodgers likely out of the division.
Tier Three: Playoff contenders
(14) New England Patriots
(15) Cleveland Browns
(16) New Orleans Saints
(17) Seattle Seahawks
(18) Denver Broncos
(19) Los Angeles Rams
(20) Green Bay Packers
(21) New York Giants
(22) Carolina Panthers
(23) Las Vegas Raiders
All of the teams in this tier should contend for a playoff berth; I could see any of them making the playoffs, but they could also fall short. Two playoff teams from last year, the Seahawks and Giants, find themselves in this tier. Despite successful 2022 seasons, it feels like both teams overachieved and are no guarantee to return to the playoffs for a second year in a row.
Teams like the Patriots, Rams, and Packers, all of which made the playoffs two years ago, feel as though they are entering a make-or-break year. It seems that the Patriots would need to make the playoffs to feel assured that Mac Jones is their franchise quarterback, and my guess is that the Packers and Rams need to have winning seasons for them to avoid entering a rebuild.
The remaining teams from this tier have not made the playoffs over the last couple of years but could reasonably do so this upcoming season. In the AFC, the Browns, Broncos, and Raiders all failed to meet expectations last season but are all viable threats for a playoff position.
The only teams I have failed to mention come from the NFC South: the Saints and Panthers. In a very weak division that includes Atlanta and Tampa Bay, expect New Orleans and Carolina to compete for the divisional crown.
Tier Four: Won’t be competitive
(24) Chicago Bears
(25) Pittsburgh Steelers
(26) Atlanta Falcons
(27) Tennessee Titans
(28) Washington Commanders
(29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This tier includes teams that I would not quite call ‘bottom feeders’ but that will likely not be competing for a playoff berth down the final stretch of the season. The list starts with the Chicago Bears, a team that I think will make a giant step forward in Justin Fields’ third year but that will still finish below .500.
Like the Bears, the Steelers and Falcons should be improved from a year ago; nonetheless, I do not view them as serious contenders. Rounding out the tier are the Titans, Commanders, and Buccaneers, all teams that I expect to take a significant step back this season.
Tier Five: Bottom feeders
(30) Indianapolis Colts
(31) Arizona Cardinals
(32) Houston Texans
There is a fair amount of parity in the NFL, and that is probably why I consider there to be only three bottom feeders going into the 2023 season. The most obvious bottom feeder has to be the Houston Texans: Houston has finished with four or fewer wins in three consecutive seasons, and it does not appear that a turnaround is going to occur any time soon.
It might be a surprise to some that I have included Arizona in this tier, but I really do not like the trajectory of this franchise. Kyler Murray is talented for sure, but he is no grownup at the quarterback position. Outside of Murray, the roster has to be bottom five in the league. Couple those facts with a new head coach and bad ownership, and I do not trust the Cardinals to be relevant any time soon.
As for the Colts, it is no secret that things are trending in the wrong direction after a disastrous 2022 season. Like the Cardinals, they have a new head coach. Although I believe their overall roster is a step above the rosters of the Texans and Cardinals, Indianapolis haven’t had a good answer at the quarterback position for a while, but will be hoping to progress with Anthony Richardson now at the helm.
