Ranking the 10 first-year head coaches in 2022
This NFL season has featured a record-tying 10 first-year head coaches. As we approach the midpoint of the season, it is fair to begin forming opinions on the first-year head coaches. In this article, I will discuss each of the offseason head coaching hires and rank them 10 through 1.
10. Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos (Record: 3-5)
Nathaniel Hackett’s Broncos improved to 3-5 following their 21-17 victory over the Jaguars in London this past weekend. Even with that win, the Broncos have performed far worse than anyone could have predicted for a team that is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.
Hackett gained his fair share of critics in the team’s Week One loss to the Seahawks, during which Hackett opted to try a 64-yard field goal rather than trust Russell Wilson to pick up the first down on a fourth-and-five with just a little over a minute to play.
Following what was perceived as late-game clock mismanagement, the Broncos hired Jerry Rosburg to assist Hackett with in game management. Surely, Russell Wilson is also to blame for the team’s slow start; nonetheless, Hackett is not immune to criticism and he will surely be on the hot seat if Denver does not at least finish with a winning record.
9. Lovie Smith, Houston Texans (Record: 1-5-1)
The Texans are 1-5-1, which is about where most people thought they would be at this point of the season. They allow a league worst 186 rush yards per game and do not do anything particularly well. Lovie Smith led the 2006 Bears to a Super Bowl appearance and has a career record of 90-92-1 as head coach, so he certainly has the experience for the job.
However, it seems to me that the Texans need to show some life, winning at least a couple more games, for Smith to have a good shot at retaining his position for a second year.
8. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints (Record: 3-5)
Even with the team’s 24-0 victory over the Raiders on Sunday, it has been a disappointing start for a group that had playoff aspirations. It was always going to be difficult for Dennis Allen to match the success Sean Payton had as head coach.
With Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston now being the options at quarterback, it is even tougher. Add on the fact that the Saints have been derailed by injuries to several key players, Allen has plenty of excuses for his team’s slow start.
However, even with all the excuses that Allen could give, I do not think he is an above-average coach. It is important to remember that in Allen’s 2+ years with the Raiders, he finished with a record of 8-28. Including his record with the Saints this year, Allen is now 11-33 as a head coach in his career.
7. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Record: 3-5)
There was optimism that there would be a seamless transition from Bruce Arians to Todd Bowles as head coach of the Buccaneers. Up to this point, that has not been the case. Following their 27-22 loss to the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, the Buccaneers are 3-5. On top of that, they have lost three straight and are 1-5 following their 2-0 start.
Certainly, there is plenty of blame to go around the entire roster, and even Tom Brady is not immune to criticism. However, one cannot help but wonder if the start of this season would have gone differently if Arians was still the head coach. I have faith that the Bucs can turn things around and win the weak NFC South, but I am skeptical that Bowles has what it takes to elevate the Bucs into a true championship contender that most expected them to be.
6. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders (Record: 2-5)
The Raiders started 0-3, but it looked like they were starting to get on track with convincing victories over the Broncos and Texans and a near victory versus the Kansas City Chiefs. However, any positive momentum that was being built was erased with a shutout loss to the Saints this past Sunday.
McDaniels, who has long been recognized as an elite offensive mind, has yet to show that he can be a successful head coach. During his time as head coach of the Denver Broncos in 2009 and 2010, he went 11-17 and is now just 2-5 as head coach of the Raiders.
Despite his sub par track record as a head coach, I believe he will eventually prove himself worthy of the job and lead the Raiders to multiple playoff berths in the next several years.
5. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (Record: 2-6)
At only 2-6, Pederson has not proven that he can elevate the Jaguars to a true contender in his first year. However, the difference between this year’s team and the 3-14 team headed by Urban Meyer from a year ago is evident.
There is more positive energy. The arrows do seem to be pointing upwards. Earlier this season, linebacker Josh Allen said of the switch from Meyer to Pederson, “It’s a professional locker room. It’s a professional setting. He’s talking to us like grown men.”
Although Pederson’s professionalism has not translated to many wins for the Jaguars just yet, I expect that will change sooner rather than later.
4. Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (5-3)
Sitting at 5-3, the first half of the season for the Dolphins has gone fairly well. When Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy, the Dolphins are a perfect 5-0. McDaniel, who had previously been the offensive coordinator for the 49ers, is an elite offensive mind in this league.
This has been on full display to start the season, with the Dolphins most recently putting up 476 yards and 31 points against the Lions. The Dolphins were solid under Brian Flores, going 10-6 and 9-8 the two previous years.
Flores could not capture a playoff berth, however, which is something I believe McDaniel’s Dolphins will accomplish this season.
3. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (Record: 3-5)
The Bears lost to the Cowboys 49-29 on Sunday, dropping them to 3-5 on the year. Even in the blowout loss, Justin Fields and the offense once again showed positive signs.
The Bears are only 3-5, but the eye test tells me that the arrow is pointing upward for this franchise. Just a little over a week ago, this team went into Foxborough on Monday Night Football and defeated Bill Belichick’s Patriots 33-14. In Week 1, they defeated the 49ers 19-10.
Prior to their blowout loss to the Cowboys this weekend, they had only lost one game by more than a single possession. I have watched a lot of Bears football this year, and they seem like a well-coached and a much more confident group.
I am very bullish on Eberflus and this franchise moving forward, and I was even hesitant to only rank Eberflus as the third best coaching hire.
2. Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings (Record: 6-1)
The Minnesota Vikings are now off to a 6-1 start and sit comfortably atop the NFC North. Although the Vikings have had a talented roster for years, it seems that O’Connell has helped that talent translate into wins. O’Connell, who was previously the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams, has brought new offensive schemes to the Vikings that were not there when defensive-minded Mike Zimmer was head coach.
Five of the six wins for the Vikings have come by only a single score and all but one of their wins were to teams with losing records, so I do not necessarily expect the Vikings to make noise when it comes time for the playoffs. With that said, I am very impressed by their start and O’Connell deserves much of the credit.
1. Brian Daboll, New York Giants (Record: 6-2)
Nobody could have anticipated a 6-2 start for the New York Giants. This was a team that many had finishing in the cellar of the NFC East, and it was certainly not a team that people considered a threat to make the playoffs. Even at this point, many experts are calling the team’s start “fluky,” citing that the team is 6-1 in one-score games.
With that said, I am one to believe that a team having an excellent record in close games is a sign of a good coach. Daboll has the trust of his players, too. That was evident in Week One when Daboll decided to go for 2 in their 21-20 victory over the Tennessee Titans. Saquon Barkley said of Daboll’s decision, “He is a man of his word. He told us he was going to be aggressive and he told us he was going lean on the players to make plays. In that situation, we did exactly that.
When you have a coach like that, it definitely will make you go out there and fight for him and execute in that situation.” I believe that the Giants enjoy playing for Daboll and will continue to exceed expectations as the year progresses.
Evaluating the job that a head coach has done can be difficult. There are so many different factors that determine the amount of success that teams have; and therefore, it is often unfair to pinpoint a team’s performance directly on the head coach.
However, when following a team closely over the course of a year, it becomes apparent if a coach has the respect of the players and is able to adequately manage a football game. With time, we will get a better feel for all these first-year head coaches; and, as is usually the case in the NFL, we can expect at least a few to be out of a job within a year or two.
