Training Camp Round Ups: AFC South

We’re back! Halfway through NFL training camps, Hard Knocks is in full swing, and the NFL is back on our TVs. It is officially time to break out those hype meters and check in on each division; looking at the key camp battles, and the floors and ceilings of each team based on what we have learned so far early on this preseason. 

Indianapolis Colts

Stop me if you have heard this before. The Colts, unsettled at quarterback, made an offseason move for an established veteran and face a short-term window for success. 2022 mimics the Colts strategy year over year since Andrew Luck left them at the altar.  

Camp battles to keep an eye on: LT – rookie Bernhard Perriman and vet Matt Pryor 

Floor:  O-line underperforms leading to 5-6 wins, last in the division

Following the first few weeks of camp and the first preseason game, fans got a look of how this could all go wrong. For the Colts to succeed, it will be on the backs of their O-line. All Pro Guard Quentin Nelson anchors the interior, but the exterior of the line has been underperforming in camp.

Veteran tackle Matt Pryor and rookie Bernhard Perriman have been battling out for left tackle, and both underwhelmed in their first outing against the Bills second and third units. If the O-line takes a step back, look for the Colts to step back as well. 

Ceiling: Matt Ryan shows up in 2019 form, defense is top ten unit. 10-12 Wins and Division Crown

The Colts have the formula, the system, and the players to make a run for the AFC South and a playoff berth. This offseason, they upgraded at QB with former MVP Matt Ryan, and returned impact players All Pro running back Jonathan Taylor on offense, and Pro Bowl linebacker Shaquille Leonard on defense.

Ryan, by all reports, has taken to his new team in stride, building an early rapport with wideout Michael Pittman in camp, and has been making strides with the young tight-end core in preseason action.

In addition, wideout Paris Campbell has made an impactful return to camp after two injury plagued years and looks to be a key addition in offense this season. On defense, new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has overhauled the defensive philosophy and has been pushing an aggressive and attacking scheme to build on a top 12 defense last season. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

We can only go up from here. After two seasons ending as the worst team in the league, the Jaguars entered this offseason determined for any semblance of improvement.

After sacking “head coach” Urban Meyer for QB friendly HC Doug Peterson, the Jaguars were top spenders this offseason, determined to overhaul their talent. 

Camp battles to keep an eye on: rookie DE Travon walker and Vet Roy Robertson-Harris

Floor – Trevor Lawrence is middle of the road, lack of depth on defense –  1 -3 wins and last in Division 

The first preseason game did not offer much hope for improvement this season. Lawrence looked stiff in limited action, pass catchers under ran routes, and the defense returns the majority of starters who helmed a bottom tier defense last season.

Number one overall pick Travon Walker has not wowed at camp and did not impress in limited action. Unless the Jags take a big leap on offense, expect more of the same. 

Ceiling – The offense clicks, Lawrence adapts to RPO system, 4-6 wins

Look, the ceiling for the Jags is not that high, but I see a scenario where the Jaguars can double up their win total for the 2022 season. Doug Peterson takes pride in QB development, and Lawrence sees the return of his college teammate Travis Etienne. A QB jump is not out of the question.

With a number one overall pick anchoring the offense, and another anchoring the defense, the jags have the pieces in place to begin their climb out of the gutter. 

Tennessee Titans

The good – the titans return the majority of their starters on both sides of the ball, the same unit that captured the number one overall seed in the AFC. The bad – the Titans lost their top offensive weapon in AJ Brown and have lost confidence in starter Ryan Tannehill. 

Camp Battles to Keep an eye on: WR Robert Woods vs the field 

Floor – Tannehill takes a step back – Derrick Henry isn’t in top form – 5-8 wins 

Halfway through camp and the proof is in the pudding. The Titans have had an awful offseason.

Their most egregious error? Letting the teams most effective pass catcher, AJ Brown, in a draft day trade. In camp, the wideout depth chart is a jumbled mess, and Derrick Henry is coming off major foot injury and has been kept out of most contact drills. I think the Titans fall back to earth this season.

Ceiling – Derrick Henry is Derick Henry – 9-11 wins and division crown. 

One thing that is clear from camp, the O-line is still the titans O-line. With the loss of AJ Brown, expect an even heavier workload for their workhorse. If Henry can stay healthy, and the O-line continues to excel as a top ten unit, it is not out of the question to see the Titans back on top in the AFC South. 

Houston Texans

The Texans are guaranteed a better season than last, based solely on the fact the Deshaun Watson is out of the building. Last season, this ugly cloud hovered around every moment. Trading that cloud over to the Browns frees up the Texans to have a great 2022, regardless of win total. 

Camp Battles to Keep an eye on: Davis Mills vs himself

Floor – The Texans will be living on the floor this season – 0-2 wins

The Texans have a good chance to break the record for most snaps by a rookie class in 2022. The current draft class is climbing up the depth chart across the board, and not because of skill, but because of necessity. Expect the Texans to show a lot of growing pains this season. 

Ceiling – Davis Mills establishes himself as legit QB1 – 4-6 wins. 

I am not expecting the Texans to take great strides this season. While Lovie Smith is a serviceable head coach, you cannot coach your way out of these massive holes on the depth chart.

Best case scenario for the season is that second year QB Davis Mills establishes himself as a legit NFL starter, and string a few wins together. On Wednesday Lovie Smith told the media you “need a quarterback” and they are hoping they have one with Mills.