Head Coaches on the ‘Hot Seat’ for the 2023 Season

When it comes to the NFL, especially at the head coach position, job security is far from a certainty. It is an unfortunate part of the business, but that is what happens when the competition is at such a high level and there is a loser for every winner in every game that is played.

In this article, I will take a look at the head coaches I believe could be without a job by year’s end if they do not perform up to expectations. 

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Now in his fourth season with Cleveland, it seems that Kevin Stefanski will have to meet expectations if he wants to keep his job. For Cleveland, expectations are understandably high; they have a talented roster and aggressively added to it during the offseason.

In a loaded AFC North, the Browns do not necessarily have to win the division but are at least expected to secure a playoff berth. It should be noted that Stefanski’s tenure with the Browns has been somewhat of a downward spiral. In his first season, Cleveland finished with an 11-5 record and defeated their rival Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs.

However, the last two years, the Browns have not come close to that type of success, finishing 8-9 in 2021 and 7-10 in 2022. Add in the fact that owner Jimmy Haslam has shown to be impatient in the past, and it is evident that the Browns will need to show significant improvement for Stefanski to keep his job for the 2024 season. 

Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Todd Bowles is only entering his second season as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it is fair to say that his name could be on the hot seat as the season progresses. Bowles had been the defensive coordinator under Bruce Arians, and his performance in that role was impressive.

Most notably, he held Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to 9 points in the team’s Super Bowl victory over the Chiefs three seasons ago. Once Arians retired as head coach of the Bucs, Arians made it clear that Bowles was the guy he wanted to take his place.

Nonetheless, the Bucs looked largely dysfunctional last year, finishing 8-9 and falling way short of expectations. Some of the blame could be put on Brady, who definitely regressed; however, there were in-game decisions made by Bowles that make him deserving of criticism, also. With Brady gone and Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield leading the quarterback room, it will not be an easy task for Bowles to lead this franchise to another playoff berth.

If the offense looks dysfunctional, much like it did last year, I would expect the Bucs to move onto an offensive-minded head coach to lead their team for the 2024 campaign. 

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Mike McCarthy has exceeded the expectations I had for him when he became head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Over his three-year tenure, he has led the Cowboys to a stellar 30-20 record. More impressive is that the Cowboys have finished 12-5 in each of the last two seasons.

With that said, their lone playoff victory during McCarthy’s tenure was last year’s win over Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. For most franchises, the last three seasons would be considered a success. However, for Dallas and Jerry Jones, success is measured by Super Bowl victories.

McCarthy and Jones seem to have a good relationship, but I would expect their relationship to sour if the Cowboys do not take another step towards the Super Bowl this year. I think McCarthy would need to lead the Cowboys to at least the NFC Championship game to feel highly confident that he would be brought back for another year.

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

In full transparency, I thought that Brandon Staley would have been fired following his team’s first-round exit to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. It was not that they lost; it was the fact that they blew a 27 point lead. Even putting that collapse aside, the Chargers underperformed for much of the season.

I believe this was and is a top-five roster with a top-three quarterback in the NFL, but the team has simply not shown they are on the same level as other AFC teams like the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills. Sure, Brandon Staley has finished 9-8 and 10-7 in his first two seasons as head coach, but I think other head coaches would have led this team to more victories.

Staley has been a staunch supporter of analytics, which I certainly do not knock him for; nonetheless, there is a feel for the game that Staley seems to be lacking. Sometimes, in fact, it feels as though he outsmarts himself.

The Chargers have the talent to compete with anyone, and if they do not prove that they can do so this year I think Staley will be gone. 

Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

Ron Rivera, now in his fourth year with the Washington Commanders, is yet another coach I see as being on the hot seat. This was something Rivera even acknowledged earlier this offseason, suggesting that if things don’t go well he realizes his time in Washington could be up.

Rivera has a 22-27-1 record in his three years with Washington, failing to finish with a winning record in any of those years. Along the way, Washington’s overall roster has improved but Rivera’s decision-making regarding who the quarterback should be has been questionable, leaving a lot of instability at the position.

With Dan Snyder gone and new ownership coming in, it would not be surprising to see the new ownership shake things up and select the coach of their choice. If Rivera’s Commanders do not at least finish .500 this year, it seems highly likely Rivera will be gone at the season’s end.

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest head coach of all time. He has led the Patriots to six Super Bowl victories and is now only 19 wins away from passing Don Shula for the all-time wins record. So, in what world could Belichick be on the hot seat?

To start, his three seasons since Brady left the Patriots in free agency have been average, at best. In 2020, the Patriots finished 7-9. In 2021, the Patriots finished 10-7 and made the playoffs; in what was his rookie year, Mac Jones looked like he had the makeup of a franchise quarterback, and the Patriots once again looked like they would be formidable for years to come.

Last season, however, was a major disappointment. The Patriots finished 8-9 and the offense led by Mac Jones regressed significantly. Add in the fact that Robert Kraft has been very candid about his disappointment with how recent seasons have gone and his burning desire to win another Super Bowl within the next few years, and it is fair to say that Belichick could be gone if the Patriots do not make the playoffs yet again.