Is He Worth It? – Derek Carr

A move that has gone under the radar since its initial inception on March 6, 2023, is the signing of Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract, with 100 million guaranteed.

Carr is a player that, depending on who you talk to, is either the best thing that ever happened to the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders, or the most overrated quarterback in NFL history. Since his pick in 2014 out of Fresno State, he has been arguably their best quarterback since Ken Stapler, yet constantly gets criticized for bad turnovers, not being aggressive enough, or just not being elite in general.

It didn’t help that this past season was extremely tumultuous. His first and only year under the Josh McDaniels tenure with the Raiders saw a team that bafflingly lost all sorts of games close and late. From Kyler Murray completely tearing the defense apart in a span of minutes in Week Two, to a full two minute drive by three-day-old Rams quarterback Baker Mayfield, the Raiders got the rough end of the stick on what felt like every possible occasion.

And Carr got the glorified status of scapegoat for it. Carr was benched by Josh McDaniels after Week 16, in one of the most baffling moves of the year.

For all of the shock that the decision induced, the messaging from the Raiders front office was that they wanted to see if Jarrett Stidham and Chase Garbers had potential to be the future of the franchise. Yet, read between the lines of a statement like this, and you will find that it is a team admitting that a player isn’t good enough to be in their long term plans.

So why, then, did the Saints pay Derek Carr $100 million dollars? The answer, I found while watching Carr, is a fascinating one. Carr has so many tough traits that you can’t write off as nothing that it is almost impossible to truly get him out of your head-or, if you have been the Raiders, get rid of him.

In a multitude of ways, Carr is extremely tough. He is also durable, leads the offense, and is clearly a player that a team will rally around. He possesses all of the intangibles, and on-field intelligence, that you want in a long-term franchise quarterback.

And yet, inconsistency arises from how Carr has to play the game due to a lack of elite arm talent and athleticism. While these do not make him a bad quarterback, there are situations in coverage that cause Carr to expose this lack of arm strength, and make a bad throw for a turnover. This, ultimately, is where his consistency issues stem from.

So, let’s dive deeper into what the Saints are getting from a longtime NFL veteran that they have now tied themselves to for four seasons.

The Good

Derek Carr is an extremely efficient quarterback, and will take what the defense gives him with a very high level of discipline.

Against the Texans in Week 7, this was readily apparent, as Carr had all sorts of quick passing opportunities, as well as one on one situations where star receiver Davante Adams was in a favorable position for an enormous gain downfield.

On one play, a 3rd and 7 on the very first drive of the game, Carr operates out of the gun, and immediately sees a zone coverage with 1 deep safety against a 3 by 2 spread formation on offense. Knowing that the hitch route to Davante Adams to the boundary side will be available with the cornerback playing well off, Carr immediately throws it and places it perfectly, with a 5 man rush threatening to disrupt anything further.

This is an example of both of Carr’s aforementioned advantages. He makes an extremely quick decision when seeing the defense, and is willing to give his best weapons a chance if the odds are in their favor. Here, Adams has one on one, and is running a route where his speed will enable Carr to simply loft him a pass.

This is also evident on a 1st and 10 play in the second quarter, with the Raiders down 3-7. Here, Carr operates in singleback under center, and sees the Texans operating in man coverage with 1 deep safety thanks to a presnap tight end motion. Getting a safety to bite on the tight end while faking the handoff, Carr then knows while he boots to the right side of the field that he will have a narrow throw to Hunter Renfrow on an out route matched up with a linebacker.

This play is an example of how Carr can not only make a snap decision while looking at a defense during his drop, but has enough field general skills to jostle defenders out of position to maximize how a play will be able to work. If this motion does not occur from Carr, the concept likely does not have as much of an effect to the side Carr boots to.

But perhaps the most important part of Carr’s ability to evaluate defenses is the discipline that comes with it. Because Carr is extremely good at reading what to do based on a defensive look, he is very disciplined with his throws, and is willing to make the unsexy plays look extremely easy.

On a 1st and 10 play with 30 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, the Raiders try to run a trick throwback play where Carr lines up wide, then runs into the backfield, catching a toss from Josh Jacobs. The idea is to run a flea flicker-esque concept where the first give to the running back is skipped in favor of a wildcat formation.

The problem is that the Texans rotate out of the box, and blanket the deep gain down the left side of the field that Carr is targeting. But rather than forcing the ball, Carr instead calmly maneuvers the pocket to his right, with pressure barreling him down, and dumps the ball off for a small gain on 1st down.

Here, the play seems like a bust. Yet, what Carr is able to do is turn a potential disaster into a mid-level 1 yard pickup, creating a much more manageable second down situation. It is this level of patience within his game that enables him to be a successful operator of the offense.

Why Carr often fails out of nowhere

For all of the discipline and intelligence you get from Carr’s game, you also get one key flaw that creates a level of inconsistency not present at the top of the NFL.

Derek Carr possesses too little arm strength to make certain deep, tight window throws that are a must for a quarterback who wants to put the team on his back to win a game. This results in the offense stalling whenever it is forced back into the drop back passing game, followed by Carr making a poor decision against either tight coverage or amidst heavy pressure.

Against the Rams, on 1st and 10 with blanked man coverage in the red zone, Carr does not have the ability to try to zip a pass against a receiver with a favorable matchup rather than lofting it to Adams on a go route in similar situations. As a result, he flushes out to his right, and has to settle for a 1 yard gain.

This lack of ability to throw a fastball into tight coverage also shows up in moments where Carr tries to put juice on the ball, and disastrously fails.

 On 3rd and 5 on the same drive, the Rams line up in a traditional 2 safety zone coverage with a 4-3 front, while the Raiders go into a 2 by 3 gun formation with a running back on the boundary side. Carr takes the snap, and tries to throw a loft in between the two safeties for a touchdown to Mack Hollins.

The ball is such a soft toss, that the linebacker in coverage gets under it for an easy interception. It is a display of Carr trying to throw a touch pass when he shouldn’t, and getting horribly punished for it.

The most damning example of this occurs at the very end of the game. With 10 seconds left on the clock, the Raiders are down 1, with a chance to rapidly get into range for a long field goal to win. The Rams line up in a prevent defense, 8 defenders sitting in zone while only 3 linemen rush the front.

Carr sees Davante Adams right behind a middle linebacker, well in space amidst soft coverage to make a catch. Attempting the throw, however, leads to far too much air on the ball, resulting in yet another pick by a linebacker underneath the route.

Derek Carr is not as capable of pushing the ball downfield in tough, crunch situations as other quarterbacks. Whether this changes with the Saints is an open question-but, for now, Carr will have to make the most of the offseason by putting more zip on his deep ball, as well as knowing how to put the ball far more out in front of receivers in these situations, especially on anticipating vertical routes downfield.

Final Evaluation

Player Grade: B

Contract Grade: B-

This is one of the harder contracts I have had to evaluate in my time writing this series. Derek Carr is the kind of middle class quarterback you wouldn’t normally want to pay big money, and I do think that last year’s failures hurt his overall standing amongst other NFL quarterbacks.

The good news here, however, is that he fits what the Saints want to do on offense. As a result, I can’t really hate the move to get him too much. Carr fits the bill of a quarterback who can run a quick strike passing game, utilize the Alvin Kamara-led running game (pending Kamara’s legal issues), and can hit Chris Olave for deep posts and busts with touch downfield.

It’s similar to what he was doing throughout his tenure with the Raiders. We shall see if he can improve in time for the Saints to return to their once feared status within the NFC.