James Fallows’ NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-32

With many of the major moves having already been made during the opening weeks of free agency, now feels like a safe time to inspect the landscape and take a shot at predicting what will happen during round one of the 2023 NFL Draft, scheduled for Thursday April 27 in Kansas City, Missouri.

Between Ryan Poles in Chicago and Carolina’s own respective brain trust, they have taken some of the intrigue out of the event when they made their monstrous trade early in the process.

The Panthers acquired the number one pick from the Bears in exchange for star receiver D.J. Moore, as well as the ninth and 61st picks this year, a first round pick in 2024 and a second round in 2025. Too much? It’s fair to ask given the crap shoot that is drafting players into the NFL. Not every number one pick works out after all, remember JaMarcus Russell? 

I don’t predict there to be too many more trades shifting the board around but I have included one or two based on how certain players fell down the pecking order. However, there could be one big move made that we’ve heard whispered around the rumour mill.

It involves a certain Lamar Jackson and his acquisition by the team that currently holds the number four pick, which Baltimore would then acquire as part of a compensation package.

Whilst this is a predictive exercise, we’re all allowed a microgram of creative licence but, I don’t feel as though this is some far fetched idea given the situation within both organisations.

One thing with noting is that this first round will only involve 31 picks this year as Miami were stripped of their pick after being found guilty of tampering last off-season.

You can also listen to the mock draft on The offGrid NFL Podcast here!

1. Carolina Panthers – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

D.J. is out but C.J. is in! We’re 99.9% sure, barring something truly shocking, that the first two picks off the board will address the quarterback position for the two selecting teams. Carolina haven’t exactly played their cards close to their chest in coveting C.J. Stroud and whilst he may not have the strongest arm or be able to read the game and improvise like Bryce Young, he does appear to be the best pure passer of all of this year’s QB’s.

2. Houston Texans – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

In a league filled with big, fast and strong defensive players, first year head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Tim Kelly will need to scheme around Young’s diminutive 5ft 10 inch frame in order to give him the best opportunity for success. The Alabama man is undoubtedly talented; he reads the game like no other QB in this class, can scramble and has plenty of big play ability.

3. Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama

This is the spot that will now be most coveted by teams giving consideration to moving up in order to bag themselves one of the other available QB’s, but not here. Anderson Jr is likely to be the best player available for Arizona that fills just one of many positions of need. An elite level difference maker like this should be impossible to pass up.

4. Baltimore Ravens (trade with Indianapolis Colts) – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

And so, here we are. The Indianapolis Colts made their move, coughed up top dollar and convinced Lemar Jackson that a move to the midwest and into a slightly less competitive AFC South, would be a nice next step for his career. As such, the Ravens need to think about what’s next and given that they would acquire the Colts first round pick both this and next year, why not draft a QB now?

Richardson has the potential to be Jackson 2.0 but there will need to be a lot of work done between now and then. Having Tyler Huntley would allow the team to sit their new man for a while, which would absolutely be to his benefit in the short term.

5. Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, DI, Georgia

Carter might be the best all-round talent of any player available. With his off-field issues seemingly resolved, some coaches might be more concerned with what the poor showing that he put in during his pro-day workout. Still, he’s unlikely to drop far because of his potential and would be an ideal interior piece for this Seattle defence.

6. Detroit Lions – Calijah Kancey, DI, Pittsburgh

Despite being slightly undersized, I can see a team picking up Kancey this early because of his speed and potential to disrupt QB’s at the NFL level. He would make a great addition to this young Lions pass rushing group.

7. Las Vegas Raiders – Paris Johnson Jr., T, Ohio State

The Raiders need help across multiple positions but the OL is arguably their most pressing concern and adding a high calibre right tackle feels like a no brainer. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they also went for another edge rusher here too though.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech

The Falcons did a lot of work in free agency to address issues along their OL and in the secondary, meaning adding a quality disruptor at edge seems likely here.

9. Chicago Bears – Peter Skoronski, T, Northwestern

Adding additional protection for Justin Fields is an obvious move and a necessary one. Whether he can stick it at tackle remains to be seen but even if not, being able to switch to guard should not hurt his stock a great deal.

10. Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa

Van Ness is a difficult player to get a read on but is absolutely one of the best players athletically in the entire draft. The Eagles like to take trench players and would be able to make use of a player with Van Ness’s versatility.

11. Tennessee Titans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

If there’s one thing that the Titans have been short on lately, it’s playmakers on offence. Smith-Njigba is the top receiver available, has great route running ability and is ready to go.

12. Houston Texans – Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU

Why not pair your new QB with a new receiver? Houston’s rebuild needs to include as much offensive talent as possible and Johnson has all of the physical tools needed to become a great wideout at the top level.

13. New York Jets – Anton Harrison, T, Oklahoma

It might be wise to give Harrison time given his limited experience at the college level but is there a better coach to pair with as a defensive player than Robert Saleh? He could step up quicker than expected and has the potential to become a top pass protector.

14. New England Patriots – Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia

Smith is unique in many ways and possesses the traits that NFL scouts will like. He’ll likely be a more productive pass-rusher in the NFL than he was at Georgia.

15. Green Bay Packers – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Definitely a better pass catcher than he is a blocker but surrounding Jordan Love with that kind of talent is necessary for Green Bay whilst they learn to live with life after Rodgers.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (trade with Washington Commanders) – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Adding Baker Mayfield was a nice addition for a Bucs team that appears to be in rebuild mode. Selling us Kyle Trask didn’t wash with many and looking to the future is wise for a team in transition. Levis will have a chance at the starting job but being able to learn from a guy like Mayfield who has similar traits could prove to be great business.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Illinois

Picking the order that these corners come off the board is tough and Porter Jr could be the first or the last off. Who really knows? I like this pick to Pittsburgh as this is a player with a solid footballing IQ and the kind of player a coach like Mike Tomlin loves to have on his teams.

18. Detroit Lions – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Whilst their first selection might raise some eyebrows, this one is simple. If a guy like Gonzalez falls into your lap you thank the universe and get the card in as quickly as possible. Playing him in rotation with Jeff Okudah, Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton should allow the Lions to match up against multiple different schemes and keep offences on their toes.

19. Washington Commanders (trade with Tampa Bay) – Brian Branch, S, Alabama

The Commanders have defensive needs more than they do on offence. Branch is the best safety in this class and has proven over his time at Alabama he can work in the slot.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Addison would be the perfect complement to the Seahawks’ talented receiver room. He’s a smooth route runner with outstanding ball skills and speed after the catch.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

If the Chargers are happy to let Austin Ekeler walk out of the door then addressing the running back position in the draft makes sense. We know how the league feels generally about drafting RB’s in round one but needs must and Robinson is a well-rounded player who is ready to go in the NFL.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Penn State

Injury prevented Witherspoon from performing at the combine or pro-day which could hurt his stock but given what he’s put on tape at Penn State, I doubt he will fall too far. Baltimore needs help in the secondary and providing he is fit, Witherspoon should be a player capable of fitting straight in as a starter.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

The Vikings have needs all  over the defence but addressing corner should be a priority. Banks has size and speed but will need to improve his awareness if he is to reach his All-Pro level potential.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Broderick Jones, T, Georgia

Jones is agile, athletic and has long arms, all of the traits required to make him a high calibre tackle and additional protection for Trevor Lawrence will help the Jags in their push to reach the next level.

25. New York Giants – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Pass catchers out wide are still needed in New York and the Giants should jump at the chance to acquire an explosive speed guy if they are to stretch defences and utilise Daniel Jones’ arm strength.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Bryan Breese, DI, Clemson

Having missed out at RB, the next area of issue for Dallas probably lies on the defensive interior and so picking up a player like Breese who can move the opposition around, should be the next logical step.

27. Buffalo Bills – Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson

How do you win in an AFC that is loaded with QB talent? You send big, fast, strong men out onto the field to hunt them down. Throw Murphy into rotation with Von Miller and Greg Rousseau and things just got spicy in Buffalo.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

The Bengals need a tight end after moving on from Hayden Hurst and Mayer would be a great value add at the end of the order. Somewhat of a luxury pick in the sense that they don’t need a lot of help in the receiving game due to the depth at wide out but having a solid extra blocker certainly wouldn’t hurt.

29. New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, DI, Michigan

Smith’s production at Michigan hasn’t quite lived up to athletic potential however, the Saints need help on their defensive line and Smith’s potential upside is worth taking a chance on.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

The Eagles once again make a selection on the O-Line but this is more of a pick for the future, drafting someone who can rotate in for Lane Johnson from time to time, before eventually replacing him next year. 

31. Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State

Having moved on from Frank Clark, the Chiefs need a player at edge rusher and teams appear to be liking what they see from McDonald. He moves well with excellent burst, has the arm length and great hands to separate from his blockers.