Risers and fallers: An early look ahead to the 2023 season
It is never too early to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season. There is still a lot that we do not know about who will be playing where, but I am going to give my best guess as to which teams will be on the rise and decline. After all, there are almost always teams that come out of nowhere to make the playoffs and teams that suffer massive setbacks after making the playoffs the prior season.
For instance, take a look at the past two seasons…
Made the playoffs in 2021, but not in 2022:
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams
Green Bay Packers
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
Did not make the playoffs in 2021, but did in 2022:
Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings
With there being 14 teams that make the playoffs, this means that half the playoff field was different the last two years. This is not unusual, and I would expect that close to half the playoff field will be different once again next year. In this article, I will predict four teams that did not make the playoffs last season but will next season (“The Risers”) and four teams that made the playoffs last season but won’t next season (“The Fallers”).
The Risers
Los Angeles Rams
I previously noted that the Rams were one of the teams who made the playoffs last season but made the playoffs during the previous season. In fact, it is safe to say that the Rams were one of the biggest disappointments last year after winning the Super Bowl the year prior. However, it is important to remember just how injured their stars were. Matt Stafford missed the last seven games, Cooper Kupp missed the last eight, and Aaron Donald missed the last six.
The list of injured stars did not end there, either. With most of the team’s stars coming back healthy for the 2023 season, I expect a big turnaround for the Rams. I do not know if they have the depth to make a Super Bowl run like they did two years ago, and with Ramsey now gone, there are holes starting to appear in the roster.
But I fully expect them to improve on their 5-12 record from this past season. My best guess right now is that they go 10-7 and find a way into the playoffs as a wildcard team.
Denver Broncos
I just claimed that the Rams were one of the biggest disappointments last season. The only reason I did not say they were the biggest disappointment is because that was the Denver Broncos. After acquiring Russell Wilson in the offseason, pundits saw making the playoffs as the team’s floor and winning the Super Bowl as their ceiling.
What actually happened, of course, was the Broncos finished 5-12 and dead last in the AFC West. Wilson was nothing short of a massive disappointment, and Nathaniel Hackett was fired after a 4-11 start. Now though, Sean Payton has stepped in as the new head coach. He has already made it clear that he is looking to install a new culture within the organization.
Payton stated of Wilson having his personal coaches in the building: “That’s not going to take place here.” In his time with the Saints, Payton’s squads never finished with below seven wins.
Now that he is the coach of Denver, I expect more of the same. Although I do not think the Broncos are a Super Bowl contender because I do not consider Russell Wilson to be one of the game’s elite quarterbacks any longer, my prediction is that the Broncos will finish 9-8 and sneak into the playoffs on the last week of the season.
New England Patriots
For all that went wrong in New England last season, they were a win away against Buffalo in Week 18 from making the playoffs. They suffered a handful of devastating losses, most notably against the Raiders when Jakobi Meyers threw the worst lateral the league has ever seen.
I think Bill O’Brien will be a big upgrade as offensive coordinator; it was evident that Mac Jones and Matt Patricia did not see eye to eye, and I think that the offense we saw when Jones was a rookie will return with O’Brien calling plays. I also do not buy into the narrative that Bill Belichick has “lost it.” Although I do think Belichick’s in-game management is often too conservative for the modern NFL, I would still argue that Belichick is great at building a team and getting the most out of his guys.
The Patriots do not have the stars to win a Super Bowl, but they have more than enough to make the playoffs. I say the Patriots go 10-7 next season.
Chicago Bears
I was high on the Bears last season, only for them to lose their last ten games and finish 3-14. Maybe I am too high on them again, but I really think Justin Fields is special and will shine when the necessary pieces are put around him. I also have a lot of trust in Matt Eberflus as head coach. With the Packers potentially taking a step back without Rodgers and the Vikings coming back to the pack after their ridiculous 11-0 record in one-score games, I expect the Bears to make some noise in the NFC North. I do not know if they will win the division, but I think they are more than capable of competing with every team in the division. It is also worth noting that they will be playing a last place schedule. I am predicting the Bears to finish with a 9- 8 record and compete for a playoff berth.
The Fallers
Minnesota Vikings
I just mentioned that the Vikings finished 11-0 in one-score games, something that is simply not sustainable. In fact, they finished with a -3 scoring differential on the season. This indicates that the Vikings should have finished around .500, rather than 13-4.
Furthermore, I do not see the team getting better in the offseason and they will have to face a first-place schedule that includes teams like the Eagles and 49ers. With teams like the Bears and Lions on the rise, I do not expect that the Vikings will run away with the division this time around. I am predicting them to finish at 8-9 and miss the playoffs, albeit by a narrow margin.
New York Giants
As was the case with the Vikings, the Giants are due for some regression this upcoming season. To start, they finished with a 9-7-1 record but a -6 point differential.
They feasted on the weak but struggled when faced with the challenge of stepping up in class, going a combined 0-5 against the Eagles and Cowboys. It is also worth noting that they were in the bottom third of the league in both yards per play and yards allowed per play; they finished 22nd with 5.2 yards per play and 24th with 5.7 yards allowed per play. Putting all these facts together, it is fair to speculate whether the Giants can repeat going to the playoffs.
Furthermore, with Daniel Jones signing a 4-year, $160 million contract this week, it is not like the Giants can afford to go on a spending spree any longer. My prediction is that the Giants will finish at 7-10 next season, bringing some to question whether Daniel Jones is the long-term solution at quarterback for the team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have fallen each of the past two years, after having won the Super Bowl in Brady’s first year with the team. Now that Brady is retired, it is only natural that the Bucs will continue to fall. Admittedly, Brady was not himself last year but whoever the team decides to replace Brady with will almost certainly be a downgrade. Right now, by default, the team’s starting quarterback is Kyle Trask.
He was the team’s second round pick in the 2021 draft, but he has had very little game action up to this point and there are definitely questions as to whether he is the answer at quarterback. Even if the team is able to acquire someone like Jimmy Garoppolo, many of the team’s stars are getting older and there are coaching questions. I see this team’s ceiling as 8-9, but I think it is more likely that this team finishes somewhere around 5-12.
Then again, maybe Brady will come out of retirement one more time and lead the Bucs to the playoffs for the fourth straight year.
Miami Dolphins
This might be a surprise to some but hear me out. The Dolphins might be the worst team in their own division, despite the exceptional signings they have made in the offseason so far.
The Bills are surely better. I have already discussed why I am high on the Patriots going into next season. The Jets are loaded with talent throughout their roster and are a quarterback away from making a lot of noise. Looking at the AFC as a whole, the Chiefs are definitely better. The Bengals are better.
The Ravens are better if they bring back Lamar. I think the Chargers have significantly more talent. The Browns have just as much talent. So do the Jaguars. So do the Broncos. That makes a total of ten teams I believe are just as good as the Dolphins, and I think seven are definitively better. Last year, the Dolphins made the playoffs but finished with a negative point differential. I think it is more likely that the Dolphins once again finish with a negative point differential than once again make the playoffs. I am predicting they will finish 7-10.
I am only somewhat confident that the teams I have chosen will be the true “risers” and “fallers” of the NFL. However, I am very confident that there will be multiple teams who made the playoffs this past season that will not next season, and vice versa. That is what makes the NFL great; we do not know who will rise and fall, but we know we will get something unexpected.
