Why did the Cowboys trade for Trey Lance?

When the San Francisco 49ers drafted Trey Lance with the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, he was the subject of a king’s ransom.

Three first round picks and a second rounder were dealt to the Miami Dolphins for a quarterback who was projected out as a physical runner, an extremely strong-armed talent in the passing game, and eventually, perhaps, the best quarterback in the NFC when coupled with the offense of Kyle Shanahan.

Flash forward three some years to 2023, and he is the probable third stringer behind Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush, learning a completely different offense under Mike McCarthy with the Dallas Cowboys.

The fall of Lance is attributable to a number of factors. One, Shanahan’s offense was always going to be an adjustment out of the power-running, RPO and play action based system that Lance operated in with North Dakota State. It wasn’t just that Lance was graduating up to a far more complex version of football than exists in the FCS; there were games where he threw 10-15 passes through four quarters of football!

Additionally, Lance ran a passing scheme in college that thrived on the quick game: getting the ball out in rhythm to specific targets, and relying on a roster that could overmatch any and all opposition. In particular, North Dakota State had an offensive line and running back tandem that regularly played bigger and faster than every other opponent they faced.

But even then, it should not have relegated him to third string status. The 49ers offense has a consistent string of power running, quick game concepts, and play action passes that Lance fits. And, his ability as a running mismatch should have given defenses reason to try and account for him with extra resources.

So it’s puzzling. As someone who was fond of Lance for all of his attributes, and the decision making that he did show within the North Dakota State offense, I was extremely curious as to what exactly went so wrong with his play. The numbers, at first glance, are quite competent this preseason: 22 of 33, 285 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. It’s not dazzling, but it suggests development.

Unfortunately, this is why you have to watch games. Numbers can be deceiving. What I found within game footage and film was an extremely firm explanation of Lance’s struggles. I’ll need some time to explain it, so let’s dive in.

Struggles as a No.2

Trey Lance’s performance in the first week of the preseason against the Las Vegas Raiders started with a brutal three and out, and it never really picked up steam from there. That first drive was peppered with horrendous decision making against a brutal pass rush that stymied the 49ers up front.

On the first play, Lance operates from under center with a singleback formation, and goes to his first read-a hitch route with a sizeable cushion to throw to. Opting to ignore this open throw, he progresses to a doubled middle of the field short curl in between both linebackers, and pumps at it before taking it back too late and taking a sack.

Next, on second and long, the 49ers opt for a deep play action concept out of I formation, where two wideouts run deep comebacks against the 3 defenders that the Raiders deep. Instead of correctly utilizing the playfake and immediately hitting Chris Conley, who comes wide open one on one on his deep route with the corner’s back turned, he either panics or simply does not care, opting for the flat route on his left.

On third and long, the 49ers motion into a wide two-by-two set with Lance operating from the gun. Instead of throwing the tight end quick out that comes open underneath a safety-right in the soft spot for the cover 2 look that the Raiders bring-Lance instead (sigh) runs into his offensive line and gets sacked.

It’s not just that Lance messed up on all of these plays. Lance showed an inability to operate simple timing concepts where the first read comes open. It’s just not a look you want from a quarterback in the third year of their NFL career. Unfortunately, Lance doesn’t end up looking much better than this.

Later on in this game, Lance showed a bit of success with single-step quick game throws, as well as more simple half-field throws under the sticks. But the more advanced things didn’t improve. In addition to another play action pass where he does not throw to the open deep threat, Lance’s one touchdown pass wasn’t even his doing.

Here, the Raiders play cover 2 man, and Lance boots out from singleback to his left. He sees that the deep crosser is coming open past the left side safety, and reads it correctly. The problem is, he throws the ball too far in front of his target, and the pass is almost intercepted by the closing safety on the right side. But, lucky for him, the ball is batted right into the hands of the 49ers tight end for a touchdown.

This is a complex read that Lance does get right-but even then, he drastically over anticipates it, either due to skewed mechanics or due to a lack of experience with these concepts. Overall, Lance simply was not in a place to be the primary backup for a 49ers team that is firmly in win-now. Anytime the game is dialed up in terms of pressure and complexity for him, he does not show the kind of instinct to execute a play that a third year veteran starter often does.

So that’s all the bad news. But the good news with Trey Lance is that there appears to be a way back. It may not be an easy path toward Dallas fixing him, but it could serve as reason to keep him around in the unexpected event that the Dak Prescott era suddenly ends.

Playing with the third stringers against the Broncos, the 49ers gave Trey Lance a few more reps with plays that he was comfortable with-ostensibly, under less pressure to have him run the base Kyle Shanahan offense. This showed a handful of good results that indicated growth for Lance.

Running quick concepts against zone defenses, such as a 3rd and 20 quick in route outside, Lance showed a lot more comfort, and decisive zip on the ball. It’s a simple design, to be sure, but it demonstrates that Lance can perhaps develop by feasting on quick, timing-based passing concepts.

Additionally, there is the obvious fact that Lance can run like a freight train anytime he has the ball in his hands. One of the most surprising features of this preseason has been the lack of utilization of the designed QB run game, something that Lance executes with stampeding precision.

But perhaps the biggest sign of hope is his ability to time obvious deep balls well, when he knows where he is going with them.

The play is 1st and 10 deep into the 4th quarter, at the 49ers own 38, with the Broncos up 20-12. At this point, Lance needs some kind of explosive play to get over midfield, having gotten out of his own deep territory at a fairly efficient rate.

Lance takes the ball out of the gun, and immediately sees a cover 2 man look-meaning that the tight end running up the seam toward the middle of the field has a brief cushion to take in the ball for a first down before he gets to either safety. Needless to say, he zips it there with tremendous accuracy.

It’s a simple decision, but one executed down to a T, enabling an enormous conversion into Broncos territory. On 2nd and 2 in Broncos territory, something similar happens: Lance diagnoses a zone coverage look before the snap, and knows that at the top of his dropback, there will be a wide open receiver on a post, with a hook route underneath assuring that a lower defender is occupied.

Again, Lance zips it right to his target, for an enormous play that gets the 49ers right at the edge of the red zone.

While I don’t necessarily think that this is the kind of play that gives you a starting job out of the blue, it may encourage a coach to take a shot on Lance’s talent, as well as a path toward developing an offense more built around his strengths. This is likely the best path for Lance; to go to a team with a stable situation above him at quarterback, and slowly layer more complex play on top of what he can do.

We shall see what Lance makes of his time in Dallas. I hope, as someone who likes him as a person and player, that it works out better than it did in San Francisco. And I still think that he can have a career in the NFL, even if it’s more of a career backup role.

But, he is firmly in the project realm. And for that reason, he likely will need anywhere from one to three more years learning the ropes in Dallas before he gets his chance to shine starting games in the regular season.