Fantasy Football 2024 Week 14: Start ’em, Sit ’em

Welcome back to Fantasy Football Start ‘em, Sit ‘em – where each week we explore some of my best picks for who should be starting in fantasy managers’ lineups, and who should be sitting the week out.

Week 13 saw Rashod Bateman leave with a knee injury, Trevor Lawrence leave with a concussion after a late hit, Ladd McConkey leave with a knee injury, Taysom Hill leave on what’s feared to be a season-ending knee injury, Dallas Goedert leave with a knee injury, Christian McCaffrey – in only his fourth game back – leave with what looked like a nasty leg injury, and Jordan Mason – who took over for McCaffrey – is slated to hit IR with a high ankle sprain. J.K. Dobbins and Austin Ekeler were also placed on IR prior to the start of the week.

To top that off, another brutal week of byes is incoming, as fantasy managers will be without Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jonathan Taylor and Colts WRs, Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, Joe Mixon and Texans WRs, Bo Nix, and Courtland Sutton.

Per usual, let’s take a look at the best of what we have left to work with this week.

Ian’s Record: 61-38

Start ‘em

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Dolphins) vs Jets

Miami’s playoff hopes took a real hit after getting embarrassed by the Packers on Thanksgiving night, but their chances are still far from zero at this point. According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, if the Dolphins win out the rest of the season, they would have a 91% chance to make the playoffs.

 And judging from the last two seasons in the Mike McDaniel era, we should know by now that Miami has the infamous reputation to make things go their way against struggling teams. Expect Tua to remain as hot as he’s been since his return.

Isaac Guerendo (RB, 49ers) vs Bears

Guerendo will be taking the reins in San Fran’s backfield sooner than he probably thought after Christian McCaffrey left early in their SNF bout against the Bills, and then Jordan Mason fell as well. A nasty, non-contact PCL injury has CMC’s season in serious jeopardy, Mason won’t be back until at least week 18, so Guerendo will be the next man up in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

In the past six weeks, the Bears have surrendered the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs. I expect a lot of ground work and checkdowns to Guerendo as Chicago’s pass defense remains top tier.

Malik Nabers (WR, Giants) vs Saints

In the three games New Orleans has played since losing Marshon Lattimore to Washington, their secondary has surrendered the second most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The situation regarding New York’s offense isn’t great either, but I think Nabers can deliver here.

Despite dealing with three different QBs this year, Nabers has received double digit targets in seven of the ten games he’s played in the NFL. He hasn’t found the endzone since week 3, but he’s overdue for an endzone trip and at least gets the volume to put up respectable fantasy numbers regardless.

Cade Otton (TE, Buccaneers) vs Raiders

Mike Evans coming back hasn’t necessarily helped with Otton’s fantasy value, but put most simply – the Raiders have sucked against tight ends just about all season, averaging a touchdown allowed to them a game in their last six contests.

Otton is also overdue for an endzone trip, and I’m expecting Baker Mayfield to throw a lot as the race for the NFC South tightens up.

Sit ‘em

Geno Smith (QB, Seahawks) at Cardinals

Arizona’s defense has done nothing but tighten up as the season’s worn on, and Smith’s been a shaky play just about all year.

Just two weeks ago when these teams met for the first time, he only threw one touchdown as well as an interception. Expect the season series to split this year and Smith to struggle against this good home-standing defense.

Gus Edwards (RB, Chargers) at Chiefs

J.K. Dobbins may have been the fantasy surprise of the year, but please don’t go running to the waivers to pick up Edwards for this brutal matchup. Chances are he’ll still be stuck in a snap share, and this is a pass-heavy shootout script between two of the AFC’s best.

In their past seven games, Kansas City has surrendered the least fantasy points per game to opposing RBs AND the fewest fantasy points total by 14 points. Pass.

Deebo Samuel (WR, 49ers) vs Bears

I have one question: What happened to this guy?

Even with all the injuries to San Francisco’s offense paving a straight path for his production (CMC, Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings), Deebo has not surpassed 75 receiving yards since week 6. He has caught more than four passes only once in that span. He has ONE touchdown since week 1!

With how visibly the 49ers are struggling right now, it just seems like it’ll be too easy for Chicago’s secondary to block him out. Pass.

Tucker Kraft (TE, Packers) at Lions

Kraft was the receiving leader for Green Bay on Thanksgiving night, but he’s in for a steep climb in what should be the Packers’ biggest test of the season.

With all the young receiver talent at Jordan Love’s disposal, it won’t be in the cards for him to focus on trying to feed what Detroit’s secondary covers best. Just not in the cards for Kraft this week.

BYES: BALTIMORE RAVENS, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS, HOUSTON TEXANS, DENVER BRONCOS