Justin Herbert: Is 2026 the Year he gatecrashes the MVP race?

The countdown to kick-off is on, and few players are more fascinating to track this season than Justin Herbert. The Los Angeles Chargers have spent the offseason tearing down and rebuilding the very things that held their franchise quarterback back in 2025 — a new offensive coordinator, a reconstructed offensive line, and a healthier supporting cast. At around 10/1 to win MVP, Herbert is one of the more intriguing bets on the board. But to understand why, you first have to be honest about how last year actually went.

The 2025 reality: brilliance behind a broken wall

On paper, Herbert had a perfectly respectable season. He threw for 3,727 yards, completed 66.4% of his passes, tossed 26 touchdowns and added a career-high 498 yards on the ground, earning the second Pro Bowl nod of his career while dragging the Chargers to an 11-6 record and a second straight playoff berth.

Look closer, though, and the cracks were everywhere. Herbert also threw 13 interceptions — his most since 2021 — and was sacked a staggering 54 times, the second-highest total in the entire league. The season ended the way too many Chargers seasons have: with a thud. Los Angeles were bounced 16-3 by the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round, with Herbert held to just 159 passing yards and sacked six times in a single afternoon. It was a brutal, very public reminder that all the arm talent in the world means little if your quarterback is running for his life.

The line that broke

The protection problem wasn’t bad luck so much as a full-blown crisis. It began before the season even started: on 7 August, just eleven days after signing a four-year, $114 million extension that made him the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history, left tackle Rashawn Slater tore his patellar tendon in practice and was lost for the year.

From there it spiralled. The Chargers cycled through roughly 20 different offensive line combinations across the season and used five different players at left tackle alone. Joe Alt, the 2024 fifth overall pick, slid over to plug one gap and then missed time himself. The result was one of the worst-protected offences in recent memory — and a quarterback who spent far too much of 2025 throwing off his back foot. The talent never disappeared. The platform to use it did.

Enter Mike McDaniel

After watching that offence manage a single touchdown across two recent playoff exits and finish 20th in scoring, Jim Harbaugh acted decisively. Out went offensive coordinator Greg Roman and offensive line coach Mike Devlin in January. In came Mike McDaniel.

This is the move that should excite Chargers fans. McDaniel spent four seasons as Miami’s head coach and, before that, built his reputation as one of the game’s most inventive offensive minds during his time with the San Francisco 49ers. His Dolphins led the entire NFL in total offence in 2023 and ranked second in scoring at over 29 points per game, with his scheme regularly manufacturing explosive plays and, crucially, masking the deficiencies of a shaky offensive line — exactly the problem Los Angeles needs solved.

McDaniel has been blunt about his ambitions for his new quarterback, saying he wants Herbert to own the position in a way he never has and describing him as capable of mastering every tool in the toolbox. The subtext is clear: the raw ability has never been the question. McDaniel’s job is to refine the decision-making, cut down the costly turnovers, and finally build a system that plays to Herbert’s enormous strengths.

A genuine rebuild, not a patch job

This is where Jonny’s headline point really lands — the Chargers haven’t just changed the play-caller, they’ve gone to work on the roster around him.

The biggest news is the simplest: both Slater and Alt are on track to be healthy for training camp, instantly restoring one of the best tackle tandems in football. On the interior, the Bolts signed veteran Pro Bowl centre Tyler Biadasz — a top-rated pass protector — to anchor a line that will field new starters across the middle following Bradley Bozeman’s retirement and Zion Johnson’s departure in free agency. They added tackle depth by re-signing Trey Pipkins III and extending Trevor Penning.

The skill positions got attention too. Tight end Charlie Kolar arrived from Baltimore on a three-year deal to pair with Oronde Gadsden, and fullback Alec Ingold reunited with McDaniel after four years together in Miami, giving the new coordinator a familiar chess piece for his run game. Defensively, future Hall of Famer Khalil Mack was brought back, and the Chargers spent their first-round pick (No. 22 overall) on edge rusher Akheem Mesidor. This is a team building for contention, not just survival.

Why the optimism is grounded

Here’s the stat that should make MVP backers sit up. In the handful of 2025 games where Joe Alt was healthy, Herbert was elite — ranking among the top five quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, top six in yards per attempt, and leading the entire league in passing touchdowns over that stretch. Give this man a functioning offensive line and a creative scheme, and the ceiling is as high as anyone’s. That’s not projection; it’s a sample from last season.

The odds — and the honest caveats

So where does that leave the MVP market? Buffalo’s Josh Allen sits as the clear favourite at around 6/1, with reigning two-time winner Lamar Jackson next at roughly 7/1. New England’s Drake Maye, fresh off a runner-up finish in last season’s voting, has surged to around 9/1, with a cluster of Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Herbert all hovering near the 10/1 mark.

That ranking matters. Herbert is genuinely live, but he isn’t third favourite — he’s in a logjam several names deep, which is precisely why 10/1 represents real value rather than a long shot. Two things likely need to happen for it to land. First, the Chargers have to emerge as the best team in a loaded AFC West, where the threat now comes as much from a stacked Denver roster as it does from Mahomes’ Chiefs. Second, that offensive line has to actually hold up — health for Slater and Alt is the entire bet.

The talent has never been in doubt. For the first time in a while, the infrastructure around it might finally match. The foundations are in place, the scheme is built to free him, and the opportunity is there for the taking. As 2026 approaches, Justin Herbert stands on the verge of what could be the defining season of his career — and at 10/1, plenty of people will be betting that he seizes it.