NFL Week Seven Betting Preview
Congrats to those that cashed in on the Jets, Giants, Falcons, and Steelers moneyline bets last week. And a bigger celebration to anyone that parlayed any of them together.
Week 6 is in the rearview, but let’s breakdown what it gave us. Amazon Prime can’t deliver quality games on Thursdays. The Panthers are in tank mode. Patriot fans think another one of their QBs is the second coming of Tom Brady. The Cowboys got a Philly beatdown. The Broncos + Primetime = America’s loss.
The second coming of Manning vs. Brady. From laughing-stocks to playoff contenders, the Falcons, Giants, and Jets each had season defining wins. Tom Brady cried out for help. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase had an October homecoming like Michael Myers. The Vikings raided Miami for a win. Arizona’s lost in the desert. The Colts took back a win from the Jags.
Now let’s take a look at the best bets in Week 7.
*Overall record: 8-10
Falcons vs. Bengals – 1:00PM ET
We’re six weeks into the NFL season and who would’ve thought that Atlanta would be tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the NFC South. Marcus Mariota has led his team to the same record as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow have for theirs.
Cincinnati seems to be gaining traction again, winning three of their last four games after starting the season 0-2. Vegas believes Cincinnati should walk out of their home stadium with a touchdown sized win. But Burrow has only won by 7+ points in five of the 15 home games that he’s started. Atlanta is undefeated against the spread so far this season, but I think streak ends this Sunday.
Atlanta, Anyone?
- Falcons are 6-0 against the spread this season, all as an underdog
- Falcons haven’t lost by more than six points all season (five games decided by 1-6 points)
- Bengals are only 8-7 at home with Joe Burrow as their starting QB (1-2 vs. NFC teams)
- Drake London has caught a TD in two of three road games
Cincinnati Calls
- Bengals are 3-2 as a favorite against the spread this season
- Two of the Bengals’ three wins have been by 7+ points
- Four of the Bengals’ six games have been determined by 2-4 points
Pick: Bengals (-6.5)
Colts vs. Titans – 1:00PM ET
Colts vs. Titans @ 1:00PM ET
Tennessee and Indianapolis square off in a tough nosed divisional matchup that could help shape who’s holding the division crown at seasons end. Matt Ryan was forced to sling the ball 58 times last week against Jacksonville in a 7-point win. Luckily, he’ll have his star RB Jonathan Taylor back this week to take some of the pressure off his arm.
Tennessee rattled off three-straight wins before their Bye Week after beginning the season 0-2. King Henry reclaimed his throne, rushing for 301 yards and 4 TDs during their winning streak. Whichever team can cash in three touchdowns will probably be our winner as the losing team has scored under 20 points in each of the past four meeting at Tennessee.
Don’t Ignore Indy
- Colts are 3-1 at Tennessee vs. Mike Vrabel
- Matt Ryan is 2-2 in his career vs. TEN (1-0 at TEN)
Tennessee Tickets
- Titans are 4-0 coming off a Bye Week under Mike Vrabel
- Titans have won four in a row vs. IND
- Titans are 17-8 at home with Ryan Tannehill as their starting QB (5-3 vs. AFC South)
- Derrick Henry has rushed for 100+ yards in four of the last five meetings vs. IND
- Jonathan Taylor has been held to 70 rushing yards or less in each of his four games vs. TEN
Pick: Colts (+2.5)
Chiefs vs. 49ers – 4:25PM ET
A Super Bowl LIV rematch three years in the making. San Francisco looked primed for a sixth Lombardi trophy until Kansas City scored 21 unanswered 4th quarter points to secure their second Super Bowl title. Since then, both teams have managed to stay at the top of their respective conferences, challenging for another trophy for their case.
Patrick Mahomes lost last week to rival Josh Allen in another down to the wire matchup between their teams. San Francisco appeared to break out after a thrashing off the defending Super Bowl champs and basement dweller Carolina but stumbled at Atlanta in a 14-point loss in Week 6.
The good news for Kansas City is they’ve only lost back-to-back games three times with Mahomes behind center. San Francisco also has good news after trading for the perennial RB in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey. Expect a tight contest in this one.
San Fran’s Gold
- 49ers are 2-0 against the spread at home this season
- 49ers have won by an average of 19 points in their three wins this season
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 4-1 at home vs. AFC teams, as a 49er
- 49ers are 15-7 at home with Garoppolo as their starting QB
Kansas City Champions
- Chiefs are 1-1 as a road favorite against the spread this season (2-4 ats overall)
- Chiefs have played in four games this season decided by 1-4 points (2-2 record in those games)
- Chiefs are 26-8 on the road with Patrick Mahomes as their starting QB
- Mahomes is 8-2 on the road vs. NFC teams (1-2 vs. NFC West)
Pick: 49ers (+2.5)
Sunday Night – Steelers vs. Dolphins – 8:25PM ET
Concussion drama. Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett is trying to come back from a concussion he sustained last week vs. Tampa Bay while Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa may be the new poster boy for concussions after America got to witness his mangled fingers on Thursday Night Football three weeks ago.
This is one of those flip of a coin games. Pittsburgh always loses the games they’re supposed to win and win the games they’re supposed to lose. Case in point, they should’ve at least won one home game earlier this season as a favorite against New England or the New York Jets.
But then both of their wins have come as heavy underdogs against Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. Miami on the other hand has been a team of streaks. They started off 3-0, but now sit at 3-3. Pittsburgh was able to snap their four-game losing streak last week, will Miami be able to snap theirs this week?
Pittsburgh Pick ‘Em
- Steelers have played in four games this season decided by 2-4 points (2-2 record in those games)
Money in Miami
- Dolphins are 11-3 at home with Tua Tagovailoa as their starting QB (2-0 vs. AFC North)
- Dolphins are 2-1 against the spread at home this season
- Steelers are 1-2 as a road underdog against the spread this season
- Steelers are 1-4 in their last five road games vs. AFC East teams
Pick: Steelers (+7)
